Mortality rate is 0.296%

[Rickeroo]

The CDC estimate for the 1957 flue epidemic actually covered the WHOLE of the epidemic and not 7/12s of it the way you want to do with COVID-19.

I think 1957 is a pretty good comparison. People are conditioned to think Covid has the same killing power it did in April, and this isn't the case. It's mutated and it's weaker. I guess it comes to what we think the final death toll will be.

 

[Rickeroo]

I heard all the news of hospitals being overwhelmed with cases in New York and Italy. I don't recall this happening during flu season.

Covid is like a bad flu - likely a 50 year event. The magnitude of the 1957 flu season doesn't happen every year. I'll have to do some comparisons.

 

[Paradoxical]

The US has had 5.59 million infections and 174,000 deaths, which is closer to 3%. If hospitals were completely overwhelmed it would've been much higher.

Even at 3%, that'd be almost 10 million dead Americans had we followed the Trump strategy of doing nothing and just letting it infect everyone.

covid deaths - Google Search

The number of infected means diddly. Most people who had it or have it haven't gotten tested. We need to stop using this "infected" Goebellian lie

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I think 1957 is a pretty good comparison. People are conditioned to think Covid has the same killing power it did in April, and this isn't the case. It's mutated and it's weaker. I guess it comes to what we think the final death toll will be.

Covid is like a bad flu - likely a 50 year event. The magnitude of the 1957 flu season doesn't happen every year. I'll have to do some comparisons.

I can see why people would want to believe that. Unfortunately it doesn't appear that that is actually the case. The data indicates that the US mortality rate has bottomed out and is about to start rising again.

​

You might also want to consider the relative performance of the US governmental and healthcare systems.

​

to consider whether or not Americans got the responses that they were seemingly entitled to receive from either or both.

You might be surprised to learn that, IF the current trends continue, THEN the last table will have only one red number (the UK one in the fourth column) in it in approximately 5 days and absolutely no red numbers in it in approximately 9 days. That would appear to indicate that every one of the other listed areas is receiving a better result from their ability to pay and the amount that they are spending on healthcare than the US is.

 

[bluesmoke]

The US has had 5.59 million infections and 174,000 deaths, which is closer to 3%. If hospitals were completely overwhelmed it would've been much higher.

Even at 3%, that'd be almost 10 million dead Americans had we followed the Trump strategy of doing nothing and just letting it infect everyone.

covid deaths - Google Search

The mortality rate peaked May 16 at 5.92% with 90.1K dead out of 1,522K cases. The rate has been going down since, most of the days. Should that rate continue, it would reach Fauci’s .75% final rate (btx .5 and 1.0). But we’ve not gotten new cases under control, which could very well go up a great deal btx Oct and Nov. We’ve not shown the state or national leadership to have public behavior recognize the need for following guidelines and exhibiting so to the people, as in follow the leader. If cases climb faster to a higher number than before, even .75% would be horrible and that figure could go up, easily. The numbers could very well be peaking as Biden takes office. Thank you Donald J. Trump.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

The mortality rate peaked May 16 at 5.92% with 90.1K dead out of 1,522K cases. The rate has been going down since, most of the days. Should that rate continue, it would reach Fauci’s .75% final rate (btx .5 and 1.0). But we’ve not gotten new cases under control, which could very well go up a great deal btx Oct and Nov. We’ve not shown the state or national leadership to have public behavior recognize the need for following guidelines and exhibiting so to the people, as in follow the leader. If cases climb faster to a higher number than before, even .75% would be horrible and that figure could go up, easily. The numbers could very well be peaking as Biden takes office. Thank you Donald J. Trump.

You might be interested in knowing that there is a relationship between the "Mortality Rate (ALL)" and the "Mortality Rate (Closed)" for any country and it turns out that that relationship is ["Mortality Rate (Closed)" x "Clearance Rate"] = "Mortality Rate (ALL). That means that, the slower a country is in actually "clearing" (that means either classifying it as "Recovered" or "Fatal") a COVID-19 case the better its "Mortality Rate (All)" looks in relation to other countries.

My signature block contains the "Mortality Rate (Closed)" rates and you can find BOTH "Mortality Rate (All)" and "Mortality Rate (Closed)" at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19.

 

[distraff]

Covid is like a bad flu - likely a 50 year event. The magnitude of the 1957 flu season doesn't happen every year. I'll have to do some comparisons.

The biggest reason we are locking down is to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Even if the mortality rate is like a bad flu, it appears that when covid goes out of control, hospitals are overwhelmed and we have to lock down.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

The biggest reason we are locking down is to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Even if the mortality rate is like a bad flu, it appears that when covid goes out of control, hospitals are overwhelmed and we have to lock down.

You raise some interesting points.

Is the US getting the "bang for the buck" that it should from its healthcare expenditures with respect to comparable countries?

​

You tell me.

How well is the US doing RIGHT NOW with respect to other comparable countries?

​

You tell me.

What IS the actual "reserve hospital capacity" that the US has? (That one I simply do not know.)

 

[DarkWizard12]

The death rate is even less than the seasonal flu. There's no reason to keep the country shut down now. Most people I know have already had it and just never went to the hospital.

 

[Lakryte]

The death rate is even less than the seasonal flu.

False, and obviously so.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

The death rate is even less than the seasonal flu.

The way that the CDC works out the "death rate" for influenza is to take the number of ACTUALLY diagnosed cases and then "extrapolate" from there based on historical data (based on surveys) of how many people - statistically - contracted influenza (using the non-medically trained person's knowledge of what that actually entails).

This works just peachy keen when you have [Factor 1] a historical data base (and [Factor 2] a populace that is [at least] somewhat knowledgeable with respect to the nature of the disease and its symptoms).

It doesn't work when either of those two factors is missing and it doesn't work worth spit when both of them are missing.

Guess which of the following is a correct statement:

1. ___ With respect to COVID-19, the CDC DOES HAVE a historical data base [Factor 1] and DOES HAVE a populace that is at least somewhat knowledgeable with respect to the nature of the disease and its symptoms [Factor 2] to work from.
   *
2. ___ With respect to COVID-19, the CDC DOES NOT HAVE a historical data base [Factor 1] but DOES HAVE a populace that is at least somewhat knowledgeable with respect to the nature of the disease and its symptoms [Factor 2] to work from.
   *
3. ___ With respect to COVID-19, the CDC DOES HAVE a historical data base [Factor 1] but DOES NOT HAVE a populace that is at least somewhat knowledgeable with respect to the nature of the disease and its symptoms [Factor 2] to work from.
   *
   or
   *
   
4. ___ With respect to COVID-19, the CDC DOES NOT HAVE a historical data base [Factor 1] and DOES NOT HAVE a populace that is at least somewhat knowledgeable with respect to the nature of the disease and its symptoms [Factor 2] to work from.

There's no reason to keep the country shut down now.

Which is why the only logical thing to do is to stop all preventive/ameliorative measures IMMEDIATELY and carry on as if there was no such thing as the so-called "COVID-19" - right?

Most people I know have already had it and just never went to the hospital.

Did you know that the plural of "anecdote" is NOT "data".

​

The three tables give an indication of how well the US is doing when compared to reasonably equivalent countries.

The two charts give an indication that possibly the trend in the US is starting to improve (but basing a trend analysis on three data points is REALLY bad practice).

PS - The CDC numbers for the AVERAGE annual deaths from influenza is 12,469 (LOW Estimate = 8,886 / HIGH Estimate = 18,306). The annualized number of deaths from COVID-19 (based on today's data) is a shade over 367,693. You might not be able to do the complicated higher level of mathematics to work out how those numbers compare, so I'll spare you the effort and tell you that the _measured_ COVID-19 death rate is approximately

1. 41.4 times HIGHER than the CDC's LOW _estimate_ of annual deaths from influenza;
   *
2. 29.5 times HIGHER than the CDC's AVERAGE _estimate_ of annual deaths from influenza;
   *
   and;
   *
3. 20.1 times HIGHER than the CDC's HIGH _estimate_ of annual deaths from influenza.

Unlike what the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology (even if they voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, will vote for him in 2020, and intend to vote for him again in 2024, 2028, 2032, 3036, and 2040) will tell you, that does NOT indicate that the US is doing better with respect to COVID-19 than it does with respect to influenza

 

[DarkWizard12]

Which is why the only logical thing to do is to stop all preventive/ameliorative measures IMMEDIATELY and carry on as if there was no such thing as the so-called "COVID-19" - right?

Yes.

I'm willing to compromise and say that not all measures should stop, but certainly most.

People have a right to earn a living, provide for their families, and the like. An infectious disease shouldn't get in the way of that.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Yes.

I'm willing to compromise and say that not all measures should stop, but certainly most.

People have a right to earn a living, provide for their families, and the like. An infectious disease shouldn't get in the way of that.

People do NOT "have a right to earn a living, provide for their families, and the like". Not a single one of those things is mentioned in the Constitution of the United States of America and there is no American legislation granting them that right.

Not only that, but people do NOT "have a right to recklessly spread infectious diseases simply because they do not want to put up with a bit of personal inconvenience or because they simply do not want to admit that the infectious disease IS a problem".

When you look at how well the US government has dealt with COVID-19, then possibly you might have some actual idea of both how serious the problem is and whether or not you are getting your money's worth from both your tax dollars and your healthcare insurance premiums.

​

Once you have read and digested those numbers, get back to me and try to convince me that Americans shouldn't be taking the same steps that responsible people in every other country in the world are taking.

PS - I have heard of reports (which I haven't been able to track down) that there have been instances of COVID-19 virus being found in "freight" (the exact nature of that "freight" isn't clear). If the US simply ignores the spread of COVID-19, don't you think that (assuming the reports are correct) that it would be appropriate for other countries to stop goods from the United States of America entering in order to protect the lives and health of their citizens?

 

[DarkWizard12]

People do NOT "have a right to earn a living, provide for their families, and the like". Not a single one of those things is mentioned in the Constitution of the United States of America and there is no American legislation granting them that right.

Not only that, but people do NOT "have a right to recklessly spread infectious diseases simply because they do not want to put up with a bit of personal inconvenience or because they simply do not want to admit that the infectious disease IS a problem".

A right to starve to death and accumulate generations of debt because ya'll decided to go full stupid on a virus that has a 99% survival rate is ALSO not in the constitution, and there's something wrong with you if you think people are going to stand for that. Sorry. I don't care what you think about what right I have or don't have, I'm going to to earn to living and bring home a paycheck because my family depends on me. So you can take your fancy graphs and well....you know what to do. If some of us have to be miserable during this pandemic because we lose our jobs or homes, you better make for damn sure, we'll make sure you're miserable too. Maybe some of us should run an experiment, and see how much hardship and suffering it takes before liberals like you(oh, im sorry, "centrists) decide keeping everything shut down isn't worth it.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

A right to starve to death and accumulate generations of debt because ya'll decided to go full stupid on a virus that has a 99% survival rate is ALSO not in the constitution, and there's something wrong with you if you think people are going to stand for that. Sorry. I don't care what you think about what right I have or don't have, I'm going to to earn to living and bring home a paycheck because my family depends on me. So you can take your fancy graphs and well....you know what to do. If some of us have to be miserable during this pandemic because we lose our jobs or homes, you better make for damn sure, we'll make sure you're miserable too. Maybe some of us should run an experiment, and see how much hardship and suffering it takes before liberals like you(oh, im sorry, "centrists) decide keeping everything shut down isn't worth it.

Yes, I am well aware of (at least) two things:

1. you simply do not care if your own actions result in other people dying;
   *
   and
   *
2. you have absolutely no interest in learning facts because whatever Mr. Trump is saying on any given day is **T*H*E** **T*R*U*T*H** (regardless of whether he said the exact opposite [which was also **T*H*E** **T*R*U*T*H**] yesterday).

 

[DarkWizard12]

Yes, I am well aware of (at least) two things:

1. you simply do not care if your own actions result in other people dying;
   *
   and
   *
2. you have absolutely no interest in learning facts because whatever Mr. Trump is saying on any given day is **T*H*E** **T*R*U*T*H** (regardless of whether he said the exact opposite [which was also **T*H*E** **T*R*U*T*H**] yesterday).

The truth is, if I want to earn a living, I have the right, and I dare you to try to take that away, because I don't care what lawyer or judge you got saying otherwise, MY FAMILY will NOT suffer because you want to go crazy over a virus with a lower mortality rate than nearly every freaking disease on the planet. I know when **** is stupid, and apparantly, you DO NOT CARE how many people have to suffer and upend their lives because you're scared someone will get the wuflu.

sometimes, you're just going to get sick, and if you're particularly unlucky, it may kill you. Okay.....we've NEVER shut down everyone's lives because someone dies from a contagious disease. Why start now?

 

[Jonsa]

The truth is, if I want to earn a living, I have the right, and I dare you to try to take that away, because I don't care what lawyer or judge you got saying otherwise, MY FAMILY will NOT suffer because you want to go crazy over a virus with a lower mortality rate than nearly every freaking disease on the planet. I know when **** is stupid, and apparantly, you DO NOT CARE how many people have to suffer and upend their lives because you're scared someone will get the wuflu.

sometimes, you're just going to get sick, and if you're particularly unlucky, it may kill you. Okay.....we've NEVER shut down everyone's lives because someone dies from a contagious disease. Why start now?

Do employees forced to go back to work have the ability to sue their employers if they catch the disease and the employer did not follow the guidelines?

 

[DarkWizard12]

Do employees forced to go back to work have the ability to sue their employers if they catch the disease and the employer did not follow the guidelines?

forced? They don't have to go to work if they don't want. If business is a shut down, they will lose their job anyway, so if they're that scared of the virus, they can just stay home. Ain't no one forcing them to work. Otherwise, it's like suing the shop for catching the flu at work.

But i'll compromise with you. If employees can prove that they caught the virus at work, and not from anywhere else,then sure. let them sue.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

The truth is, if I want to earn a living, I have the right, and I dare you to try to take that away, because I don't care what lawyer or judge you got saying otherwise, MY FAMILY will NOT suffer because you want to go crazy over a virus with a lower mortality rate than nearly every freaking disease on the planet.

REALITY CHECK TIME​

​

I know when **** is stupid, and apparantly, you DO NOT CARE how many people have to suffer and upend their lives because you're scared someone will get the wuflu.

REALITY CHECK TIME​

U.S. again sees under 40K new COVID-19 cases, but deaths triple
(from United Press International)
​

sometimes, you're just going to get sick, and if you're particularly unlucky, it may kill you. Okay.....we've NEVER shut down everyone's lives because someone dies from a contagious disease. Why start now?

REALITY CHECK TIME​

The Public Health Response
(from Stanford.edu)

How some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemic
(from The National Geographic)


​

PS - The estimated number of Spanish (and it should really be called "American" because it started in the United States of America [but the US had a better PR firm than Spain did]) flu deaths was 675,000 over 24 months. The counted COVID-19 deaths in the US are 182,449 over 4 months. 24 is 6 times 4. 6 x 182,449 is 729,796.

Of 675,000 and 729,796, which is the larger number"

1. ___ 675,000;
   *
2. ___ 729,796;
   *
3. ___ There is no difference between the two numbers;
   *
4. ___ I don't know because Mr. Trump hasn't told me what to think;
   *
5. ___ The number 182,449 is a complete lie and is being spread by the wacko, loony, crazy, left-wing, liberal, socialist, pinko, commies who are a part of the huge, vast, enormous, secret, hidden, covert, conspiratorial plot to force a coup against DONALD JOHN TRUMP whom God guided Americans into choosing as THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA so that THE UNITED! STATES OF AMERICA! could fulfill its God Mandated role as the Saviour of Mankind and who want to impose Sherry Law (with its mandatory same-sex, inter-racial, marriages and forced abortions of all white, male, pre-born, children AND compulsory autism causing vaccinations) on America so that all the Cheerleaders would have to wear Burke Hats and football would be banned because it uses pig skin;
   *
   or
   *
6. ___ I'm going to keep on bleating nonsense because I don't want to face up to reality and you can't make me - so nyah, nyah, NYAH!

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Do employees forced to go back to work have the ability to sue their employers if they catch the disease and the employer did not follow the guidelines?

Not if Mr. Trump has his way.

If Mr. Trump has his way, what percentage of employers do you think are going to cut their profit margin so that protecting their workers against a condition that they are not legally required to protect them against?

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

forced? They don't have to go to work if they don't want. If business is a shut down, they will lose their job anyway, so if they're that scared of the virus, they can just stay home. Ain't no one forcing them to work. Otherwise, it's like suing the shop for catching the flu at work.

But i'll compromise with you. If employees can prove that they caught the virus at work, and not from anywhere else,then sure. let them sue.

Your "compromise" requires that the workers "prove a negative" and it is impossible to "prove a negative" so your "compromise" is semantically equivalent to "Take your concern and stick it up your a***, because I really don't give a s*** if you die or not.".

 

[Ginger Ale]

COVID-19 Hospitalization and Death by Age | CDC

This is sobering.

 

[DarkWizard12]

Your "compromise" requires that the workers "prove a negative" and it is impossible to "prove a negative" so your "compromise" is semantically equivalent to "Take your concern and stick it up your a***, because I really don't give a s*** if you die or not.".

How is that a negative? Prove you got the virus while at work. How is that a negative? You either caught it at work, or you didn't. Maybe at a park or beach or something.

 

[snakestretcher]

The Coronavirus is classified as a Flu-type virus, but is not acting like a Flu-type virus. This particular Coronavirus is also acting differently than previous Coronaviruses.

It's almost as if it is a thoroughbred virus designed to depart from the normal behaviors of Flu-type viruses.

It doesn't seem to fall off in warmer weather as do both the flu and the common cold. It seems to work in concert with almost anything else to make any underlying condition lethal.

Judging ONLY by the souring of the President's rhetoric with regard to China for which he was previously, even a month or two back, very positive, I get the impression that there is something not public that is now understood behind the scenes.

I suppose in the fullness of time, we'll know more.

If it was anything to do with alleged nefarious practises in China, be sure that Trump would be bellowing about it already; just as he bellows about anything to divert attention from the abysmal job he has done so far in regard to containing it.

 

[snakestretcher]

The truth is, if I want to earn a living, I have the right, and I dare you to try to take that away, because I don't care what lawyer or judge you got saying otherwise, MY FAMILY will NOT suffer because you want to go crazy over a virus with a lower mortality rate than nearly every freaking disease on the planet. I know when **** is stupid, and apparantly, you DO NOT CARE how many people have to suffer and upend their lives because you're scared someone will get the wuflu.

sometimes, you're just going to get sick, and if you're particularly unlucky, it may kill you. Okay.....we've NEVER shut down everyone's lives because someone dies from a contagious disease. Why start now?

Why start now? Maybe because this is the most dangerous, virulent and contagious global pandemic since 'Spanish' flu? Maybe because most folk value their lives, those of their family and those of their neighbours more than a job?
But feel free to go out and get infected; we'll see how dismissive you are coughing up the remains of your lungs on a ventilator.