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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/climate-policies-put-world-track-103000437.html
Yet when we look at the report,
https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/
the projection is based IPCC RPC Baseline scenarios.
3.3°C 1 warming above pre-industrial levels.
I guess we need to first find the pre-industrial temperature, to see what the 3.3°C is referenced to.
In the GISS the average between 1880 and 1900 is -.22, which used to mean 13.78 °C, but is questionable now.
Whatever the case if -.22 is used as the pre-industrial baseline, then 3.3°C would be 3.08 on the GISS scale.
3.08 °C would be roughly 2.36 °C above the current decade average.
To increase that 2.36 °C, in the next 81 years, would require a sustained warming of .29 °C per decade.
The real problem with predictions like this is that we do not have ANY sustained periods of that level of warming
in the roughly 150 years of the instrument record.
The decade average highest decade growth was .238 per decade in 1945.
It looks like only 2 years in the last 70 had decade growth above 2.0 C per decade.
Now we are expected to believe we are going to have 8 sustained decades,
where the warming exceeds anything observed in the record by .05 C per decade.
Yet when we look at the report,
https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/
the projection is based IPCC RPC Baseline scenarios.
3.3°C 1 warming above pre-industrial levels.
I guess we need to first find the pre-industrial temperature, to see what the 3.3°C is referenced to.
In the GISS the average between 1880 and 1900 is -.22, which used to mean 13.78 °C, but is questionable now.
Whatever the case if -.22 is used as the pre-industrial baseline, then 3.3°C would be 3.08 on the GISS scale.
3.08 °C would be roughly 2.36 °C above the current decade average.
To increase that 2.36 °C, in the next 81 years, would require a sustained warming of .29 °C per decade.
The real problem with predictions like this is that we do not have ANY sustained periods of that level of warming
in the roughly 150 years of the instrument record.
The decade average highest decade growth was .238 per decade in 1945.
It looks like only 2 years in the last 70 had decade growth above 2.0 C per decade.
Now we are expected to believe we are going to have 8 sustained decades,
where the warming exceeds anything observed in the record by .05 C per decade.
