@basionok, do you disagree?
In this video, where does it look like the fire, smoke and debris is originating? The center of the westbound span, or off camera down and to the right?
Crimea Bridge explosion forward and backward
Hi Ashes,
Followed your posting for the most part, and largely agree with you.
When it comes to this video I struggle. I actually made a comment on this video on the (one of the) first pages of this thread. When I did a frame-by-frame analysis of the footage I see the last frame where all is ok. I then see 1 frame where the bottom 20% of the screen is white. I made a particular comment on this frame. So yes, the explosion has started. But it takes time for a frame to 'build-up' So this doe not mean that much when things are happening that fast. Camera scans from top to bottom and from left to right. After this frame there is several white frames. Too much light from the explosion to see anything really.
I have asked, but never got a response, if someone here has any idea if a proper conclusion can be drawn from the above. I think more information can be derived from this 1 single frame. Provided you have the technical background to do such analysis on CCD camera elements and explosives. I can not.
I find it hard to draw any conclusions from this footage.
- First I thought it was a truck bomb. (Russia now claims this to be the case, but that is only more reason to reject that idea)
- Later I started to swift towards something from the water.
- Is a missile strike a possibility? Seems unlikely when coming from the top down. But maybe it did not come from the top down.
- Maybe it was a special operation with explosives planted. But than why the columns are still standing.
there is 2 things I think that are important to notice about the explosion that are not mentioned a lot though.
1 - There are 2 sections of roadway that have collapsed separated by a road section that has not collapsed.
2 - The largest section of collapsed roadway still has the middle part standing up in part and resting on a column. I find this very strange. It looks like it was completely lifted up and slid sideways. I am not an explosives expert, but to me that looks like it came from below. Anyway, I can not really explain it.
All I am trying to say is that 'we home scientists' can hardly make a proper analysis of the information available.
In addition to this there is the guesswork we're doing about who has done this and why this was done.
- Could it have been Ukraine. Possible, and initially my first choice.
- Could it have been Russia? Seems unlikely, but the very moment Russia started to claim that it was the US, I can not help but think that is must have been Russia. But there is something else to it. It could have been a Russian government operation, but it could also have been a Russian terrorist organization.
- If other counties were involved, I think this is limited to the supply of intelligence.
Let's get back to the Russian claim again for a sec though. Again, as we have seen many times over, when Russia says something than it is probably not true. History just shows that the vast majority of their public claims are typically incorrect.In addition to this there is the Russian mentality of creating a false narrative. Now I truly believe that the Russians are increadibly f...ing stupid, but I find it hard to believe that they are stupid enough to start a nuclear war. However, from all the claims that the Russians have made on Ukraine so far, the most solid from their side and the least likely for them to give up is of course Crimea. At the same time they have also created a reason to use nuclear weapons if they stick to their own narrative. In addition to this, in their mindset the use of 'tactical' nukes is not the same as nuclear war. Or at least, they think they can sell it this way to the public.
Having said all that, the bottom line is, the bridge is damaged and this is causing a headache for the Russians. And this I can only applaud.
Joey
