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I can't believe I lost track of this one for so long!
For close elections victory really comes down to which way the undecideds break, and we don't really learn that until election night (days, weeks ... month). We can get clues from things like the Generic Congressional Ballot and Biden's job approval numbers, but in the end all we can do is wait and see. That's why I have the different categories of "standard," "bump," and "wave."
Given that the "standard" is what the polls are telling Larry, why do you only consider that undecideds might go to Republicans?
Should be:
- Blue Wave
- Blue Bump
- Standard
- Red Bump
- Red Wave