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Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022

I can't believe I lost track of this one for so long! :oops:

For close elections victory really comes down to which way the undecideds break, and we don't really learn that until election night (days, weeks ... month). We can get clues from things like the Generic Congressional Ballot and Biden's job approval numbers, but in the end all we can do is wait and see. That's why I have the different categories of "standard," "bump," and "wave."

Given that the "standard" is what the polls are telling Larry, why do you only consider that undecideds might go to Republicans?

Should be:
  • Blue Wave
  • Blue Bump
  • Standard
  • Red Bump
  • Red Wave
Sorry if this is making more work for you. But having been through it a few times now, you could leave out the working.
 
And yet, his accuracy rate is pretty impressive. He was very close in everything from 2002 midterms until 2016, where he, like every other polling expert, failed miserably.

Was he accurate 51 days out, though?
 
Given that the "standard" is what the polls are telling Larry, why do you only consider that undecideds might go to Republicans?

Should be:
  • Blue Wave
  • Blue Bump
  • Standard
  • Red Bump
  • Red Wave
Sorry if this is making more work for you. But having been through it a few times now, you could leave out the working.
Considering that this is an off-year election with the Democrats in power, the agenda items voters consider most important significantly favoring Republicans, and Biden's approval ratings significantly underwater, doing a "Blue Wave" and "Blue Bump" would be a waste of time--if they can manage a "Standard" election, they should count themselves extremely lucky.
 
Considering that this is an off-year election with the Democrats in power, the agenda items voters consider most important significantly favoring Republicans, and Biden's approval ratings significantly underwater, doing a "Blue Wave" and "Blue Bump" would be a waste of time--if they can manage a "Standard" election, they should count themselves extremely lucky.

You're not getting it. Sabato's projection is based on polling, which already takes into account "mid-term" and "unpopular president". If you won't do "blue bump" etc then at least drop the "red bump" etc; it's misrepresenting Sabato's work.
 
You're not getting it. Sabato's projection is based on polling, which already takes into account "mid-term" and "unpopular president". If you won't do "blue bump" etc then at least drop the "red bump" etc; it's misrepresenting Sabato's work.
And as I pointed out earlier, what really makes it a standard, bump, or wave election is how the undecideds break, which we won't know until the election.
 
One day before election, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has come out with their last predictions. Note that there are no Toss-Ups, they've placed their bets on every race.

House
Safe Republican: 187
Likely Republican: 16
Leans Republican: 34
Leans Democrat: 27
Likely Democrat: 17
Safe Democrat: 154

The 2020 election was 222D-213R. Figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans" and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 235R-200D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 250.5R-184.5D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 255R-180D. Not veto-proof (that would be 290), but definitely spectacular.

And for the Senate, in 2020 it was 50R-50D (including independents that caucus with the Democrats). Now there's a minor drift back toward the Republicans, again with no Toss-Ups.

Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 14
Likely Republican: 3
Leans Republican: 5
Leans Democrat: 3
Likely Democrat: 2
Safe Democrat: 8
Democrats not running: 36

Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:

Standard election: 50.33R-49.67D
Republican bump: 52.5R-47.5D
Republican wave: 53R-47D
 
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