Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 (1 Viewer)

[Doug64]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

 

[Phys251]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

Really? That would mean that the Democrats have a decent chance of retaining the House.

 

[Doug64]

Really? That would mean that the Democrats have a decent chance of retaining the House.

Not really, one of the three states that hasn't finalized a map yet is Florida. Though the Democrats have done a better job of filibustering this time.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

Yep. It's a gimme. You don't have to bother to vote.

 

[Helix]

The party in power often loses seats during a president's first term.

 

[Exquisitor]

Duaayy? I can't believe anyone is voting for these Republicans.

How dark, how grim, how gruesome!

 

[Doug64]

The party in power often loses seats during a president's first term.

True, and considering how narrow the Democratic majority currently is that alone would probably hand control back to the Republicans. The question is how large the new Republican majority is--the larger it is, the more wiggle room the Republican House leadership has with legislation.

 

[HangLow]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

​

 

[Doug64]

View attachment 67387022​

Yup, you beat me to it (a bit). So adding the Senate, we get this:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 15
Likely Republican: 3
Leans Republican: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Leans Democrat: 1
Likely Democrat: 2
Safe Democrat: 8
Democrats not running: 36

Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:

Standard election: 51R-49D
Republican bump: 52R-48D
Republican wave: 54R-46D

Even with a wave election, a Republican Senate would be far short of a filibuster-proof majority, much less a veto-proof majority.

 

[HangLow]

Yup, you beat me to it (a bit). So adding the Senate, we get this:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 15
Likely Republican: 3
Leans Republican: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Leans Democrat: 1
Likely Democrat: 2
Safe Democrat: 8
Democrats not running: 36

Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:

Standard election: 51R-49D
Republican bump: 52R-48D
Republican wave: 54R-46D

Even with a wave election, a Republican Senate would be far short of a filibuster-proof majority, much less a veto-proof majority.

red wave time...
-peace

 

[Doug64]

The Florida legislature has passed its map! (Well ... DeSantis map, really, but they signed off on it so it's officially theirs.) Here's the Cristal Ball's analysis of what that means:

Breaking Down the DeSantimander - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event on Thursday, April 28 with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’...

centerforpolitics.org

— Last month, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) vetoed redistricting plans that his Republican legislature produced. In a special session last week, legislators deferred to DeSantis and passed his preferred plan.


— Under the DeSantis plan, Republicans are likely to emerge with a 20-8 edge in Florida’s delegation, up from their current 16-11 advantage.


— We don’t see any of the districts on the new Florida plan as especially competitive, although candidate quality may matter in some districts.

As well, the highest state court in New York just rejected the map the legislature had adopted for House seats as unconstitutional both in procedure and outcome, so I pulled their numbers from the counting.

Even in a standard election year that pushes the House into Republican control, if not with much of a margin. And while the lead will inevitably shrink a bit once New York comes up with yet another new map, it won't be as bad for Republicans as it was before.

House
Safe Republican: 175
Likely Republican: 17
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 14
Likely Democrat: 20
Safe Democrat: 142

There are 3 states with 36 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 213.5R-185.5D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 222R-177D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 232R-167D.

 

[TurtleDude]

The party in power often loses seats during a president's first term.

I think W's first midterm (2002) was the only time in my life this didn't happen and that was an aberration due to the 9-11 massacre

 

[uptower]

Or to be optimistic (though not always realistic, especially in a midterm):

Each side keeps all its safe seats and leans and likelys and half each of the tossups.
GOP 196/197
Dems 200/201

 

[Doug64]

Been awhile since I've updated this. The good side of that is that it means all the states have final maps and most of the primaries are done (I think). So at this point, here's what Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball looks like for the House:

House
Safe Republican: 185
Likely Republican: 19
Leans Republican: 11
Toss-Up: 27
Leans Democrat: 17
Likely Democrat: 21
Safe Democrat: 155

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 230.5R-204.5D. Not a spectacular majority, but better than what the Democrats have right now.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 241.5R-193.5D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 253R-182D. Not veto-proof (that would be 290), but definitely spectacular.

And for the Senate, the only change is one race moving from Safe Republican to Likely Republican--not exactly earth-shaking.

Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 14
Likely Republican: 4
Leans Republican: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Leans Democrat: 1
Likely Democrat: 2
Safe Democrat: 8
Democrats not running: 36

Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:

Standard election: 51R-49D
Republican bump: 52R-48D
Republican wave: 54R-46D

 

[The Stars Tremble]

Larry Sabato has been doing his "crystal ball" since 2002, which is plenty of time to establish whether he's an accurate forecaster or just another hack.

I'm an adherent of FTE, rather than SCR. I'm more impressed by their math.

 

[The Stars Tremble]

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 230.5R-204.5D. Not a spectacular majority, but better than what the Democrats have right now.

For the sake of argument, let's apply that to the Senate:

Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 14
Likely Republican: 4
Leans Republican: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Leans Democrat: 1
Likely Democrat: 2
Safe Democrat: 8
Democrats not running: 36

R not running = 29
Safe = 14
Likely = 4
2/3 of Lean = 1.33
1/2 of Toss-up = 2
1/3 of D Lean = 0.33
Total = 50.66

You can round that up to 51 if you like, but remember that your prediction has a margin of error.

Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:

Standard election: 51R-49D

Opinion polling is already baked into the numbers, so your further speculation is about opinion moving from where it is now.

 

[Doug64]

Opinion polling is already baked into the numbers, so your further speculation is about opinion moving from where it is now.

I can't believe I lost track of this one for so long!

For close elections victory really comes down to which way the undecideds break, and we don't really learn that until election night (days, weeks ... month). We can get clues from things like the Generic Congressional Ballot and Biden's job approval numbers, but in the end all we can do is wait and see. That's why I have the different categories of "standard," "bump," and "wave."

Any road, with the primaries over the past month there have been a few minor shifts toward the Republicans:

House
Safe Republican: 188
Likely Republican: 16
Leans Republican: 12
Toss-Up: 27
Leans Democrat: 18
Likely Democrat: 19
Safe Democrat: 155

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 231.5R-203.5D. Not a spectacular majority, but better than what the Democrats have right now.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 243R-192D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 255R-180D. Not veto-proof (that would be 290), but definitely spectacular.

And for the Senate, there's a very minor drift toward the Democrats, resulting is a "standard" election once again giving us a split Senate with the VP providing the deciding vote for party-line issues. For the other two, the numbers are the same.

Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 15
Likely Republican: 2
Leans Republican: 3
Toss-Up: 4
Leans Democrat: 1
Likely Democrat: 1
Safe Democrat: 9
Democrats not running: 36

Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:

Standard election: 50R-50D
Republican bump: 52R-48D
Republican wave: 54R-46D

 

[NOVA66]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

I am a republican that will be voting for a democrat.

 

[The Stars Tremble]

Larry Sabato is a hack.



FiveThirtyEight

 

[The Stars Tremble]

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans,"

Have you actually tested that with past polling and past results?

 

[yankintx]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:

House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149

There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.

The House elections are very much based on local politics, and much more difficult to predict as there are so many local factors.

The Senate not so much as its a State wide election.

Is this a normal mid term, probably not, with Roe being cast aside. Will young women show up on polling day, will it make a difference, probably.

Watch the turnout, and it's genger and age demographics, it's what I will be looking at polling day.

 

[yankintx]

The party in power often loses seats during a president's first term.

100% agree

Is 2022 a normal midterm?

Will the elimination of Roe be a factor? The Dems have gotten a slight bump in polls. Will younger women show up to vote?

 

[Helix]

100% agree

Is 2022 a normal midterm?

Will the elimination of Roe be a factor? The Dems have gotten a slight bump in polls. Will younger women show up to vote?

It's not a normal midterm. I do hope that those who reject the radicalized Republican party show up to vote.

 

[Roadvirus]

Larry Sabato is a hack.

And yet, his accuracy rate is pretty impressive. He was very close in everything from 2002 midterms until 2016, where he, like every other polling expert, failed miserably.

 

[Doug64]

So at this point all the primaries are done, and in the House races there have been some minor shifts toward the Democrats, resulting in a one-seat change:

House
Safe Republican: 187
Likely Republican: 16
Leans Republican: 12
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 21
Likely Democrat: 19
Safe Democrat: 155

So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 230.5R-204.5D. Not a spectacular majority, but better than what the Democrats have right now.

Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 242R-193D.

And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 254R-181D. Not veto-proof (that would be 290), but definitely spectacular.

And for the Senate, there's also a minor drift toward the Democrats, only enough to decrease the Republican gain by one for the blowout category.

Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 15
Likely Republican: 2
Leans Republican: 3
Toss-Up: 2
Leans Democrat: 3
Likely Democrat: 1
Safe Democrat: 9
Democrats not running: 36

Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:

Standard election: 50R-50D
Republican bump: 52R-48D
Republican wave: 53R-47D