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This is interesting. A new study, to be published by the American Geophysical Union, suggests that waste heat output correlates better with temperature changes than do climate models.
Important study: Waste heat is a major source of national warming, significantly pollutes climatic record
I covered a similar study back in 2008 which you can read about here. This study takes it to a national level, suggesting once again that surface temperature records are not really measuring a “climate change” signal in entirety. The author of the study says that “correlation of temperature above background levels and national energy…
Continue reading →
From Urban to National Heat Island: the effect of anthropogenic heat output on climate change in high population industrial countries
John Murray, Douglas Heggie
Key Points:
• Annual heat output for the U.K. and Japan is determined from national energy consumption 1965-2013
• Strong correlations are found between energy consumption and temperatures above or below global background levels
• Heat output may affect climate change in countries of high population density
Abstract
The project presented here sought to determine whether changes in anthropogenic thermal emission can have a measurable effect on temperature at the national level, taking Japan & Great Britain as type examples. Using energy consumption as a proxy for thermal emission, strong correlations (mean r2 = 0.90 & 0.89 respectively) are found between national equivalent heat output HO and temperature above background levels ∆taveraged over 5 to 8 year periods between 1965 and 2013, as opposed to weaker correlations for CMIP5 model temperatures above background levels ∆mt (mean r2 = 0.52 & 0.10). It is clear that the fluctuations in ∆t are better explained by energy consumption than by present climate models, and that energy consumption can contribute to climate change at the national level on these timescales.
Important study: Waste heat is a major source of national warming, significantly pollutes climatic record
I covered a similar study back in 2008 which you can read about here. This study takes it to a national level, suggesting once again that surface temperature records are not really measuring a “climate change” signal in entirety. The author of the study says that “correlation of temperature above background levels and national energy…
Continue reading →
From Urban to National Heat Island: the effect of anthropogenic heat output on climate change in high population industrial countries
John Murray, Douglas Heggie
Key Points:
• Annual heat output for the U.K. and Japan is determined from national energy consumption 1965-2013
• Strong correlations are found between energy consumption and temperatures above or below global background levels
• Heat output may affect climate change in countries of high population density
Abstract
The project presented here sought to determine whether changes in anthropogenic thermal emission can have a measurable effect on temperature at the national level, taking Japan & Great Britain as type examples. Using energy consumption as a proxy for thermal emission, strong correlations (mean r2 = 0.90 & 0.89 respectively) are found between national equivalent heat output HO and temperature above background levels ∆taveraged over 5 to 8 year periods between 1965 and 2013, as opposed to weaker correlations for CMIP5 model temperatures above background levels ∆mt (mean r2 = 0.52 & 0.10). It is clear that the fluctuations in ∆t are better explained by energy consumption than by present climate models, and that energy consumption can contribute to climate change at the national level on these timescales.
