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It's All About the Waste Heat

Jack Hays

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This is interesting. A new study, to be published by the American Geophysical Union, suggests that waste heat output correlates better with temperature changes than do climate models.


Important study: Waste heat is a major source of national warming, significantly pollutes climatic record

I covered a similar study back in 2008 which you can read about here. This study takes it to a national level, suggesting once again that surface temperature records are not really measuring a “climate change” signal in entirety. The author of the study says that “correlation of temperature above background levels and national energy…
Continue reading →

From Urban to National Heat Island: the effect of anthropogenic heat output on climate change in high population industrial countries
John Murray, Douglas Heggie
Key Points:
• Annual heat output for the U.K. and Japan is determined from national energy consumption 1965-2013
• Strong correlations are found between energy consumption and temperatures above or below global background levels
• Heat output may affect climate change in countries of high population density
Abstract
The project presented here sought to determine whether changes in anthropogenic thermal emission can have a measurable effect on temperature at the national level, taking Japan & Great Britain as type examples. Using energy consumption as a proxy for thermal emission, strong correlations (mean r2 = 0.90 & 0.89 respectively) are found between national equivalent heat output HO and temperature above background levels ∆taveraged over 5 to 8 year periods between 1965 and 2013, as opposed to weaker correlations for CMIP5 model temperatures above background levels ∆mt (mean r2 = 0.52 & 0.10). It is clear that the fluctuations in ∆t are better explained by energy consumption than by present climate models, and that energy consumption can contribute to climate change at the national level on these timescales.



 
This is interesting. A new study, to be published by the American Geophysical Union, suggests that waste heat output correlates better with temperature changes than do climate models.


Important study: Waste heat is a major source of national warming, significantly pollutes climatic record

I covered a similar study back in 2008 which you can read about here. This study takes it to a national level, suggesting once again that surface temperature records are not really measuring a “climate change” signal in entirety. The author of the study says that “correlation of temperature above background levels and national energy…
Continue reading →

From Urban to National Heat Island: the effect of anthropogenic heat output on climate change in high population industrial countries
John Murray, Douglas Heggie
Key Points:
• Annual heat output for the U.K. and Japan is determined from national energy consumption 1965-2013
• Strong correlations are found between energy consumption and temperatures above or below global background levels
• Heat output may affect climate change in countries of high population density
Abstract
The project presented here sought to determine whether changes in anthropogenic thermal emission can have a measurable effect on temperature at the national level, taking Japan & Great Britain as type examples. Using energy consumption as a proxy for thermal emission, strong correlations (mean r2 = 0.90 & 0.89 respectively) are found between national equivalent heat output HO and temperature above background levels ∆taveraged over 5 to 8 year periods between 1965 and 2013, as opposed to weaker correlations for CMIP5 model temperatures above background levels ∆mt (mean r2 = 0.52 & 0.10). It is clear that the fluctuations in ∆t are better explained by energy consumption than by present climate models, and that energy consumption can contribute to climate change at the national level on these timescales.




Total waste heat accounts for .1 to .2 degrees per decade toward Global Warming.
 
Choosing two densely-populated island nations makes this heating effect easier to detect specifically because it's choosing the nations where the effect would be at its highest.

Run the numbers for Canada and you'll find a hilariously different result.
 
Just think about all the radiators on every car that goes by ransfering that waste heat to the air, about 80% of the energy in the fuel that all cars use just gets transfered to the air as heat..

Pretty much all power is derived from heat.. Burning coal, nuclear power, natural gas.. All heat..

Pretty much all the energy you use also eventually winds up as heat because of the laws of conservation of energy. The wind resistance to your car, your TV, vacuum, everything..
 
Just think about all the radiators on every car that goes by ransfering that waste heat to the air, about 80% of the energy in the fuel that all cars use just gets transfered to the air as heat..

Pretty much all power is derived from heat.. Burning coal, nuclear power, natural gas.. All heat..

Pretty much all the energy you use also eventually winds up as heat because of the laws of conservation of energy. The wind resistance to your car, your TV, vacuum, everything..

It is a mind-boggling amount of heat.

But it's also a big ass planet.
 
Total waste heat accounts for .1 to .2 degrees per decade toward Global Warming.
You do realize the warming predictions that were too high were .21 C per decade?
 
Where did you get this?

Calculate the annual waste heat from petrocarbon fuels. Calculate the weight of the Atmosphere. Calculate the temp increase caused by the heat waste btus.
Big numbers, but not rocket science. My answer was in farenheit degrees.
 
Last edited:
Calculate the annual waste heat from petrocarbon fuels. Calculate the weight of the Atmosphere. Calculate the temp increase caused by the heat waste btus. Big numbers, but not rocket science.

Do it up..
 
Calculate the annual waste heat from petrocarbon fuels. Calculate the weight of the Atmosphere. Calculate the temp increase caused by the heat waste btus.
Big numbers, but not rocket science. My answer was in farenheit degrees.

Show your work

Let's use logic instead. If you leave the heat on in your trailer, it's gonna get hotter.


No, how about since you brought up calculations we use math.
 
well, it was 122 in my neighborhood today, it has since cooled down to 120...
 
I did the math and came up with 10^-7 C.

I think you neglected the waste heat form biomass, coal, nukes and ethanol.
 
This is interesting. A new study, to be published by the American Geophysical Union, suggests that waste heat output correlates better with temperature changes than do climate models.

And we produce a great amount of waste heat, and it gets greater every year.
 
I think you neglected the waste heat form biomass, coal, nukes and ethanol.

Concrete is a high use high heat item as it sets. Then also add land use changes of asphalt, concrete, and buildings that replace vegetation. The severe loss of transpiration, replaced by black body absorbers.

Have you guys seen charts like this?

LLNL-Energy_US_2014.png
 
Concrete is a high use high heat item as it sets. Then also add land use changes of asphalt, concrete, and buildings that replace vegetation. The severe loss of transpiration, replaced by black body absorbers.

Have you guys seen charts like this?

LLNL-Energy_US_2014.png

The most severe black body absorber problem that I am aware of is Arctic ice melt. I changes from a highly reflective surface to an absorbent. That's a terrific US energy use chart. Multiply that times about 5 and you get the World's energy use. Perhaps 500 quads. Mostly waste heat. About 400 quads waste heat. I always feel sumpin' slippin'. That would be political sanity.
 
Global primary energy usage: 524 quadrillion BTU per year = 5.24e17 BTU/yr = 1.75e13 J/sec = 1.75e13 Watts.

Earth surface area: 5.10e14 m².

Global waste heat from energy use: 1.75e13 / 5.10e14 = .034 W/m².

Global heat from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: 2.974 W/m².

Percentage of global warming due to waste heat: .034 / (2.974 + .034) = 1.1%.
 
Global primary energy usage: 524 quadrillion BTU per year = 5.24e17 BTU/yr = 1.75e13 J/sec = 1.75e13 Watts.

Earth surface area: 5.10e14 m².

Global waste heat from energy use: 1.75e13 / 5.10e14 = .034 W/m².

Global heat from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: 2.974 W/m².

Percentage of global warming due to waste heat: .034 / (2.974 + .034) = 1.1%.

We can agree its a small number, but this is direct applied heat. Not radiant energy that only warms a fraction of the emitted energy. Also... Don't forget feedback.
 
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