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You are giving Biden far too much credit. While he is not the evil wench that Hillary is, he does share some of her bad traits, though his biggest problem is his rapidly declining cognitive ability. It is that which is keeping him in his basement....not covid 19. And Biden does share Hillary's aloofness and elitism. And what Trump tantrums specifically are you referring to? Is it his Twitter tweets? Those are not tantrums. Those are Trump making use of social media to get past the media almost never giving him a fair shake. Trump did not win in 2016 based on personality. He won based on convincing enough working class Americans that he would follow through on the campaign promises he made. And he has largely followed through.As for your claim that Biden's basement strategy has worked for him, I assume that you are basing that on opinion polls.Alot of good such opinion polls did Hillary in 2016. One thing everyone should have learned from the 2016 race is that Opinion polls have a very poor track record when it comes to predicting turnout on election day for either candidate. 2016 is not the only example of that. Talk to Former Presidential candidate Michael Dukakis.He was well ahead in the polls all the way up to election night against George HW Bush, yet he was slaughtered on election night. In the 1980 and 1984 races, the polls had them too close to call all the way to election night, yet Reagan won two landslides. The second one against Modale, Reagan won every state with the exception of Mondale's home state. My point is that elections are not all about opinion polls. Nobody is ahead or behind until people actually vote.
Dukakis, I think not. Dukakis had a 17 point lead at the end of July, cut to 7 points in August, by the end of September Bush had a 5 point lead, increased to 10 at the end of October 1988. So Dukakis had lost his lead with approximately 2 months left in the campaign. That's far from leading up to the election.
Yes, 1980 was close in the polls, but 1984 wasn't. In 1984 Reagan had a 17 point lead in June, 12 at the end of July, 16 at the end of September and an 18 point lead prior to the election.
Historical polling for United States presidential elections - Wikipedia
But those races occurred in an entirely different era. No polarization and much less partisanship. The two major parties didn't hate each other back then, they recognized that both parties goal was a secure, free and prosperous America. Only their paths were different. Today, each party thinks the other party is out to destroy this country. That the other party is this nations number one enemy.
Polls let you know where things stand today, approximately where things stand as most polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. This is why I usually use RCP averages and never put all my trust in just one poll. Skewed polls happen, RCP in their averaging lessens the impact of a skewed poll.
I may be giving Biden too much credit. But the fact remains, at least in my mind if Biden can keep this election all about Trump and his personality, he wins. As I stated, if he doesn't, who knows? There also one more big difference. The number of third party voters, undecided are much smaller this year than in 2016. The number of third party/undecided for 2020 is 8%, for the same date, the end of August for 2016 20% were saying they'd vote third party or were undecided.
My point is in 2016, Trump didn't need to convince one Hillary supporter to jump her ship and come over to Trump. He had a pool of 20% at the end of August to make up at that time a 4 point Hillary lead.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
This year at the end of August, Trump has a pool of just 8% to make up what is now a 7 point Biden lead.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
I think, at least to me, those numbers 20% and 8% are more important than any horse race numbers. They mean Trump must convince some Biden supporters to desert him and jump aboard the Trump train. Perhaps he can do that, that remains to be seen. But that is something Trump didn't need to do 4 years ago. There's no telling the strength of the support for either candidate either.
If the election were held today, it would be Biden easily. It's not. 2 more months to go and no one, imi no one can can predict the effect the corona virus will have on the voting. So far I've been treating this as a normal election, but with the pandemic, it isn't.