• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every persons position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Iran’s Rohani Has Limited Time to Avert Nuclear Showdown

Jango

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 16, 2012
Messages
5,587
Reaction score
2,291
Location
Michigan
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Left
The inauguration of Iran’s President Hassan Rohani in two days restarts the countdown toward a confrontation over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program as it approaches Israel’s “red line” for military action.

After a decade of fruitless negotiations and tightening economic sanctions, the next 12 months may make or break the international effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Such weapons would pose an existential threat to Israel, endanger the U.S. and Europe, and trigger a nuclear arms race in the Persian Gulf region.

Rohani, who takes office Aug. 4 and was considered a relative moderate among the candidates permitted to run by the country’s Guardian Council, has spurred hopes in some quarters that Iran may be willing to curb its nuclear efforts. That view isn’t shared by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who calls Rohani a “wolf in sheep’s clothing,” and Iran’s nuclear advances are narrowing the window of time to avoid a conflict.

“There is a 75 percent to 80 percent chance that issue will have come to a head” by this time next year, said John McLaughlin, a former deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

As negotiations stalled during the wait for the election to choose President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s successor, Iran increased its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium and added centrifuges capable of shortening the “breakout” time to produce enough highly enriched fuel for a nuclear device.

The country could have a nuclear weapon within a year if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chooses to do so, according to former U.S. Marine General James Mattis, who retired in March as commander of the U.S. Central Command.

Iran

This situation is going to come due one of these days, and either Iran will be attacked or have a nuclear bomb.
 

Artevelde

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
698
Reaction score
194
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Iran

This situation is going to come due one of these days, and either Iran will be attacked or have a nuclear bomb.

I agree that time is running out here.
 

washunut

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 13, 2009
Messages
11,830
Reaction score
3,417
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
Iran

This situation is going to come due one of these days, and either Iran will be attacked or have a nuclear bomb.

My sense is that Obama wants Iran to have the bomb. His Secretary of Defense talked about the administration's containment policy until he was helped by a senator who was able to spin the unartful reply.

Not sure that Israel can realistically attack Iran.

So the administration will try and keep up this phony hoax until after the midterm elections. Will probably try and entice Iran to slow development until that time.
 

Occam's Razor

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 30, 2011
Messages
2,069
Reaction score
1,122
Location
Oregon
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Other
Iran

This situation is going to come due one of these days, and either Iran will be attacked or have a nuclear bomb.

Come due? You guys are being chased by shadows. Even if Iran had 15 bombs tomorrow, they can't do anything with them except to use them as a deterrent. If a sovereign gov't that has previously been disastrously the recipient of US "intervention" in response to nationalization of their own oil industry feels the need to have a bomb or two... I for one don't blame them.

Every source of uranium ore and every processing facility produces a unique isotopic signature. It's fairly simple to tell exactly where bomb grade uranium comes from, even after detonation. No country, not North Korea, not Iran, not Pakistan... no one can use a nuke offensively and not face immediate and complete erasure from the planet. Even the craziest nut-job dictators know this, and if they don't, their generals do.

The reason you are being sold the fear of a rogue nation with a nuke as a serious threat is because they can't tell you the truth. Countries with bombs cannot be manipulated by the US as they have been in the past. It's the allegory to having a CCP. They get to keep their resources and the industries that profit for them, meaning they have no need for World Bank or IMF loans and conditions, they get to keep their democratically elected gov'ts, they get to make their own policies, etc.

They seek the bomb for the same reasons we hold the 2nd amendment sacred. To defend against tyranny the tyranny of others. They have already, and still suffer the consequences of tyranny from the US in the 1953 coup initiated and funded by the CIA, the installation of the US hand-picked Shah, and the loss of their nationalized oil, industry and profit. Their house was broken into, their stuff stolen, their politics raped... ya, I can totally see why they want a gun big enough to defend themselves.
 

Artevelde

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
698
Reaction score
194
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Come due? You guys are being chased by shadows. Even if Iran had 15 bombs tomorrow, they can't do anything with them except to use them as a deterrent. If a sovereign gov't that has previously been disastrously the recipient of US "intervention" in response to nationalization of their own oil industry feels the need to have a bomb or two... I for one don't blame them.

Every source of uranium ore and every processing facility produces a unique isotopic signature. It's fairly simple to tell exactly where bomb grade uranium comes from, even after detonation. No country, not North Korea, not Iran, not Pakistan... no one can use a nuke offensively and not face immediate and complete erasure from the planet. Even the craziest nut-job dictators know this, and if they don't, their generals do.

The reason you are being sold the fear of a rogue nation with a nuke as a serious threat is because they can't tell you the truth. Countries with bombs cannot be manipulated by the US as they have been in the past. It's the allegory to having a CCP. They get to keep their resources and the industries that profit for them, meaning they have no need for World Bank or IMF loans and conditions, they get to keep their democratically elected gov'ts, they get to make their own policies, etc.

They seek the bomb for the same reasons we hold the 2nd amendment sacred. To defend against tyranny the tyranny of others. They have already, and still suffer the consequences of tyranny from the US in the 1953 coup initiated and funded by the CIA, the installation of the US hand-picked Shah, and the loss of their nationalized oil, industry and profit. Their house was broken into, their stuff stolen, their politics raped... ya, I can totally see why they want a gun big enough to defend themselves.

You are mistaken. If Iran becomes a nuclear power it will be less restrained and may make miscalculations by letting Hizbollah act with less restraint. This might provoke a Hizbollah attack on Israel with unconventional weapons, causing unacceptable casualties and forcing Israel to demonstrate the credibility of its deterrent. Things may very well escalate from there.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of a regime with a martyr's complex is not a good idea.
 

Fallenangel

DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 24, 2013
Messages
3,416
Reaction score
1,099
Location
Israel/Russia/UK
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I doubt that Iran would be attacked at all, even if Israel/West would be 200% sure that they are building a nuclear warhead...but that is only my own opinion.

Cheers,
Fallen.
 

Occam's Razor

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 30, 2011
Messages
2,069
Reaction score
1,122
Location
Oregon
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Other
You are mistaken. If Iran becomes a nuclear power it will be less restrained and may make miscalculations by letting Hizbollah act with less restraint. This might provoke a Hizbollah attack on Israel with unconventional weapons, causing unacceptable casualties and forcing Israel to demonstrate the credibility of its deterrent. Things may very well escalate from there.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of a regime with a martyr's complex is not a good idea.

A martyrs complex? Please, setting your biased opinions aside, what factual evidence do you have that Iran has ever acted in keeping with a "martyrs complex"?
 

Artevelde

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
698
Reaction score
194
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
A martyrs complex? Please, setting your biased opinions aside, what factual evidence do you have that Iran has ever acted in keeping with a "martyrs complex"?

Look at how eagerly they let many thousands young recruits be massacred in human wave-attacks during the Iran-Iraq War.
 

MadLib

monstrous vermin
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
6,248
Reaction score
2,439
Location
Upstate New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
A martyrs complex? Please, setting your biased opinions aside, what factual evidence do you have that Iran has ever acted in keeping with a "martyrs complex"?

Ignoring the fact that Islamist ideology is basically a martyr's complex, the Iranian government demonstrated its love of martyrdom during the Salman Rushdie incident, where Muslims who attempted to kill Rushdie would be considered martyrs. Also, they always portray themselves as a righteous victim of Western imperialism.
 

Captain America

Jedi Master
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 12, 2006
Messages
22,772
Reaction score
13,072
Location
Wisconsin
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
I typically tend to steer clear of topics regarding Israel because I have come to learn that being critical of the GOI is one of the fastest ways to get forum demerits here at Debate Politics. Or, it used to be anyways. But I just can't help myself on this one. So, I apologize in advance.

996578_10201339391039555_855312463_n.jpg


Moderator's Warning:
2nd Image deleted as it bypasses the word censor.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Mr. Invisible

A Man Without A Country
Supporting Member
Monthly Subscriber
DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 20, 2010
Messages
5,414
Reaction score
3,722
Location
United States
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Iran

This situation is going to come due one of these days, and either Iran will be attacked or have a nuclear bomb.

I have yet to see any hard evidence that they are attempting to make a nuke.
 

MadLib

monstrous vermin
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
6,248
Reaction score
2,439
Location
Upstate New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
I have yet to see any hard evidence that they are attempting to make a nuke.

1. Based on discussions here (I don't remember exactly where), they've been enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels.
2. They have ran the IAEA around in circles.
3. Iranian-funded terrorist groups have had mushroom clouds on their flags.
 

Mr. Invisible

A Man Without A Country
Supporting Member
Monthly Subscriber
DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 20, 2010
Messages
5,414
Reaction score
3,722
Location
United States
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
1. Based on discussions here (I don't remember exactly where), they've been enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels.
2. They have ran the IAEA around in circles.
3. Iranian-funded terrorist groups have had mushroom clouds on their flags.

None of that is hard evidence whatsoever, especially the last one. Please show me evidence that they are enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels.
 

Morrigi

Active member
Joined
Jul 5, 2013
Messages
351
Reaction score
124
Location
IL
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
He can't. It doesn't exist.

We know they're refining uranium, and we know they want commercial nuclear power. We also know that they like trolling the West with this information because they know it'll make our governments flip out. Aside from that, there really isn't anything.
 

MadLib

monstrous vermin
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
6,248
Reaction score
2,439
Location
Upstate New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
None of that is hard evidence whatsoever, especially the last one. Please show me evidence that they are enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels.

Here's the post I found which I thought was good: http://www.debatepolitics.com/break...ite-un-nuclear-watchdog-4.html#post1061296472

I'm not going to deny that I could be wrong on this issue, it isn't even unlikely that I am. Many of the aforementioned things on their own would mean nothing, but when you combine them lead to some suspicion.

Also, I doubt that both Israeli intelligence, American intelligence and the IAEA have all reached similar conclusions or are all lying. The US government has made up casus belli before, so again, I could be wrong here.
 

madisonr

New member
Joined
Aug 25, 2013
Messages
23
Reaction score
6
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I have yet to see any hard evidence that they are attempting to make a nuke.

Are you an intelligence operative for a major agency? So why would you expect to see any firsthand? Or do you need everything spoon-fed to you from a silver platter by MSNBC before you can form an opinion?
 

madisonr

New member
Joined
Aug 25, 2013
Messages
23
Reaction score
6
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
None of that is hard evidence whatsoever, especially the last one. Please show me evidence that they are enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels.

Hilarious, diversionary drivel. "Well, I never fought in World War 2....so it never could have happened!"

If iran wasn't building nuclear weapons, they would not be:

1-building hardened facilities under hundreds of feet of concrete and mountain rock
2-building a heavy water facility like Arak, which produces plutonium - and has no medical or research purpose.
3-hiding numerous sites from the IAEA
4-asphalting over sites like Parchin as they did this month
5-getting caught working on nuclear trigger designs
6-running 15-20,000 highly advanced IR2M centrifuges 24 hours/day that are capable of reaching 90%+ purity in just a few weeks. Older, cheaper, simpler centrifuges would be enough for medical/research-grade uranium.
7-refusing to allow their scientists to be interviewed by the IAEA as mandated by the NPT.
8-having Rouhani admit that they had successfully stonewalled IAEA investigators for years

You see, these are FACTS which rational, intelligent people without an agenda are able to recognize as being strong, definitive evidence of a clandestine weapons program.
 

madisonr

New member
Joined
Aug 25, 2013
Messages
23
Reaction score
6
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
1. Based on discussions here (I don't remember exactly where), they've been enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels.
2. They have ran the IAEA around in circles.
3. Iranian-funded terrorist groups have had mushroom clouds on their flags.

The anti-Israel/anti-West crowd develops their ludicrous argument against attacking iran in several ways, using the same idiotic points seen across the web:

1-the lie that iran has "not attacked anyone in, like, 500 years". This is obviously patently false.
2-"there is no evidence that iran is working on a bomb" - as if they are privileged CIA operatives who would get to see the evidence first hand.
3-then when the first 2 moronic points above fail, they resort to: "well, they SHOULD be working on a bomb, since Israel has one, and they are enemies."

This is why there is such strong support for Israel and the West against iran across the world, because bright people can see right through the drivel, propaganda nonsense the iran excusers try to use.
 

MadLib

monstrous vermin
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
6,248
Reaction score
2,439
Location
Upstate New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
The anti-Israel/anti-West crowd develops their ludicrous argument against attacking iran in several ways, using the same idiotic points seen across the web:

1-the lie that iran has "not attacked anyone in, like, 500 years". This is obviously patently false.
2-"there is no evidence that iran is working on a bomb" - as if they are privileged CIA operatives who would get to see the evidence first hand.
3-then when the first 2 moronic points above fail, they resort to: "well, they SHOULD be working on a bomb, since Israel has one, and they are enemies."

This is why there is such strong support for Israel and the West against iran across the world, because bright people can see right through the drivel, propaganda nonsense the iran excusers try to use.

I don't think attacking Iran is the answer. Containment is a better policy. We need to eliminate pro-Iran regimes in the region (Baathist Syria) and help fight against their puppet terrorist groups (Hezbollah and to a lesser extent, Hamas). Iran relies on extending it's influence into other countries. As soon as we prevent it from doing that, it will contract and then collapse, similarly to the Soviet Union. Iran, despite how it tries to act, is filling to the brim with dissidence and instability. Without the ability to direct this negative energy outward, the Islamic Republic will have its days numbered.
 

madisonr

New member
Joined
Aug 25, 2013
Messages
23
Reaction score
6
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I don't think attacking Iran is the answer. Containment is a better policy. We need to eliminate pro-Iran regimes in the region (Baathist Syria) and help fight against their puppet terrorist groups (Hezbollah and to a lesser extent, Hamas). Iran relies on extending it's influence into other countries. As soon as we prevent it from doing that, it will contract and then collapse, similarly to the Soviet Union. Iran, despite how it tries to act, is filling to the brim with dissidence and instability. Without the ability to direct this negative energy outward, the Islamic Republic will have its days numbered.

My first option actually, would be be not to attack the facilities, but to bomb and destroy the regime itself. Once a more rational, less antagonistic regime were in place, with the republican guard and basij neutralized, the entire program could be dismantled. That would require a bit more time and military presence than just sending cruise missiles into nuclear facilities, and would guarantee that the regime would not just spend the next 5 years re-building them.

That said, containment is not an option because they are too willing, unlike the much more rational soviets. to handing off their nuclear weapons tech to other rogue nations, or selling it outright. Since it is a hug country, and has scumbags like putin and china helping it, it would be nearly impossible to be able to quarantine the country fully.
 

MadLib

monstrous vermin
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
6,248
Reaction score
2,439
Location
Upstate New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
My first option actually, would be be not to attack the facilities, but to bomb and destroy the regime itself. Once a more rational, less antagonistic regime were in place, with the republican guard and basij neutralized, the entire program could be dismantled. That would require a bit more time and military presence than just sending cruise missiles into nuclear facilities, and would guarantee that the regime would not just spend the next 5 years re-building them.

That said, containment is not an option because they are too willing, unlike the much more rational soviets. to handing off their nuclear weapons tech to other rogue nations, or selling it outright. Since it is a hug country, and has scumbags like putin and china helping it, it would be nearly impossible to be able to quarantine the country fully.

Iran is boiling with discontent. A regime change is not an option because, unlike in Iraq, the regime is neither a minority nor is it tyrannical enough to be feared and hated by the entire population, at least not more than the population would detest the United States. With containment, all of the negative energy that Tehran is directing towards undermining the West will come to nil. The unhappy population then cannot be convinced to hate the US rather than the Khamenei regime. Then, Iran will transform into a more moderate state.

Iran does have friends abroad. So did the Soviet Union. They had puppet governments from the Balkans to Indochina. That didn't prevent them from falling, as their ability to spread their influence declined even after their victory in Vietnam. Many scholars see Afghanistan as the final blow to Soviet supremacy.
 
Top Bottom