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Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day

OK, that date is embarrassing. The search engine that gave me that result said the page was only 12 hours old. Still, there are people explaining how Trump or Harris could win in a landslide.

Try this more current about Dick Morris - https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...slide-ex-clinton-adviser-predicts/ar-AA1tlqWL And, again, I'm making no claims about his reliability. I'm only pointing out that pollsters and talking heads are all over the place. No one is justified in grabbing hold of one outlier poll.
 
Parker_Chess said:
Tbh it's smaller states with lower populations that can shift quickly. This pollster does have a track record of predicting the election with pin point precision. Personally I still believe Trump carries Iowa but it may be closer than expected.
Click to expand...
FEC numbers tell the story in congressional races, like IA-01 and IA-03.
Harris coattails are already helping these two Democratic challengers.

Iowa 2024 General Election

Iowa 2024 General Election
www.thegreenpapers.com
 
I think the reasonable way to look at this is that the race in Iowa has gotten closer. That’s it.
Also, I read somewhere that there is a 70% chance that one candidate will get 300 or more electoral votes. That would be a landslide imo.
EITHER candidate could do it.
 
Parker_Chess said:
Tbh it's smaller states with lower populations that can shift quickly. This pollster does have a track record of predicting the election with pin point precision. Personally I still believe Trump carries Iowa but it may be closer than expected.
Click to expand...

Tbh, you have greater faith in the inherent honesty of the system than I have. My concerns as to the security of our system began way back during the Bush v. Gore election and the "discovered paper ballots" issues delaying the results until SCOTUS stepped in.

I believe cheating has occurred, and can occur again.

I'm not going to put the videos in the thread because that would be too much. I will provide their titles and people can find them on YouTube.

1. The Deep State Is 3 Steps Ahead...Bret Weinstein EXPLAINS | The Winston Marshall Show #032. Segment starting at 5:40 and ending at 12:50.

2. Vindicating Trump, the segment titled "Attempted Democracy Assassination" starting at 1:06:18
 
Can't argue that. I've also watched a couple different Youtube channels where clowns with no reputation to speak of have shown how they expect candidate A or candidate B to win that landslide. Everyone wants to be That Guy who called the election first.
 
Good
We had our argument for the night.
 
Captain Adverse said:
Here is another detailed evaluation of this poll:


Emerson has Trump +9 (Trump 54, Harris 45).
Click to expand...

I hope that guy's mispronunciations are intentional. If not, he's an uneducated boob who is in way, way, way over his head. Even if intentional, it sounds pretty dumb. His reasoning seems sound, though.

I'll float a suspicion here. Selzer plans on retiring, and she's taking this opportunity to sway the election in her chosen direction. Retiring or not, it looks like an attempt at manipulation to me. At least she isn't Russian, or Chinese, or Iranian. We can't claim Australian/UK/EU/Bolivian interference in the election, right? It's just another crazy American!
 
Aristaeus said:
Maybe the reality isn't as close as the polls are indicating.

Click to expand...

We've been told repeatedly that pollsters have made "adjustments" due to Trump's past record in the elections. If all the polls are making the same "adjustments" because they are afraid of being proven wrong yet again, they they are likely to all get the same results.
 
Linc said:
More reich-wing conjecture without links.
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Pretty sure Tender isn't a Trump supporter, or even right wing. Also, how is a poster meant to provide a link to a gut feeling??

And using the word Reich wing in response to an Austrian poster is tone deaf.
 
Aristaeus said:
Pretty sure Tender isn't a Trump supporter, or even right wing. Also, how is a poster meant to provide a link to a gut feeling??

And using the word Reich wing in response to an Austrian poster is tone deaf.
Click to expand...
I meant what I said even more now then ever.
His silly OPs and posts backing Trump deserve it.
Beruit 1978 said:
You ask for Lincs, I give you a Linc. Listen to a Black New Yorker explain why he ain't voting for Kamala. Yeah, I know, he's not from Iowa, but still applicable.

Click to expand...
I could care less what a fraudulent fan of traitor trump says.
At my age of 70, I’ve been arguing against GOP traitors and fascists like Nixon since 1968.

When a Candidate Conspired With a Foreign Power to Win An Election

It took decades to unravel Nixon’s sabotage of Vietnam peace talks. Now, the full story can be told.
www.politico.com

Nixon killed 22,000 more American soldiers to get elected, just for starters.
No doubt you supported Nixon ****ing up Iran as VP in the 50’s, as well as taking over in Vietnam.
 
Linc said:
I meant what I said even more now then ever.
His silly OPs and posts backing Trump deserve it.
Click to expand...

I still don't understand how you expect him to provide a link to his gut feeling, which seemed to be the basis of your attack.
 
Aristaeus said:
I still don't understand how you expect him to provide a link to his gut feeling, which seemed to be the basis of your attack.
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At this point, gut feelings of a foreign poster for trump are most certainly trumpism.
Maybe you haven’t noticed the reich-wing wave across Europe, helped by SSteve Bannon.
Let’s not beat around the bush about any difference between right and reich.
Libs and progs don’t have the mettle to fight maga and radical repubs as mod/con DEMs do.
 


Presume, much? No, I most certainly don't approve of Operation Ajax. TBH, I wasn't born yet when that took place - and at 70, you're only 1 1/2 or 2 years older than I am, so you don't remember it either. The Islamic Republic of Iran only exists because we overthrew a healthy democracy.

Vietnam unfolded as I was growing up. My opinions on that are kinda mixed, but overall, I disapprove of the lies and subterfuge on our part to drag us into the war. It was more about protecting a strategic resource (rubber) and DuPont profits than it was about communism.

Trump, and GOP traitors, huh? Well, Trump was a Democrat for much longer than he's been diddling with the Republican party. He's not really a Republican at all - he's a Rino like so many other hangers-on.

And, as for being a Trump fan - I don't even like Trump. My "support" for Trump consists of voting for the lesser evil. Harris a vacuous creature who will be a tool for Establishment Joe's masters. Joe was senile when he was elected, and Kamala is as empty headed as a politician can be. Both of them have been tools.

Trump has a myriad of faults, but he's nobody's tool. He stymied the Establishment's goals while he was in office last time, and he'll do the same this time. That pleases me. Doesn't mean I like Trump, or support him, or even have a lot of respect for him. It means I would vote for almost anyone, before I voted for the Democrat offering. As for the Republican party - I've been a registered Independent since 1974. I have no loyalty to any party. My loyalty is to the United States, and I don't think either party has my country's best interests at heart.

Do you have any more presumptions that I might address here?
 

He's Putin's tool.

Your loyalty is to the US, yet you're voting for someone who tried to overthrow an election and who said he trusts the words of Putin more than the US intelligence service???
 
One poll.
I would bet serious money this singular poll is wrong.
 
Please:

November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43% - Emerson Polling

Trump leads among both men and women in the Hawkeye State A new Emerson College…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com
 
Aristaeus said:
He's Putin's tool.

Your loyalty is to the US, yet you're voting for someone who tried to overthrow an election and who said he trusts the words of Putin more than the US intelligence service???
Click to expand...

Nope. I don't think Trump is Putin's tool. I am quite certain that Kamala is somebody's tool.

And, to clarify, my loyalty is to the United States, not so much to the government. The government has changed a helluva lot in the last 50 years, most drastically with the Un-patriot act. I love my country, but the government that is supposed to serve us seems to have forgotten who works for whom.

You cited Operation Ajax, and you referenced that whole fiasco with Vietnam, then you fault someone for not trusting the US Intel services? I don't know who the intel services work for, but it's not you and me.
 
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