Again, it doesn't matter how good you are. Pollsters use a 95% confidence level which means even if everything is done perfectly, you still have a 1 in 20 chance that your prediction is bad.See my post #45.
IMO... yes.That’s right. The much revered Des Moines Register of the deep red state of Iowa places Harris ahead of Traitor Trump.
- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
- A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
- The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
- Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”www.desmoinesregister.com
A sign of what we’ll see on Tuesday?
Why on earth would any woman give their precious vote for a PIG who once bragged that “if you’re famous you can do anything you want” including grabbing a woman by her genitalia then, in effect, RAPING a woman??Something is in the wind. I personally know of a couple of people who broke away from Trump at the last minute to vote for Harris. In addition my mother-in-law used to be for Trump and now isn't. Most days she goes to play games at what is basically an old folks facility. Most are women. She says that all of the old folks have turned against Trump in mass. She said a few had broken away before but now it's become an avalanche and they are becoming more and more outspoken against him.
I live in a small town in Indiana that is heavily Republican. All of a sudden I'm seeing more and more Harris signs. There used to be a lot more Trump signs but now its about even.
He so unsubtle I sum up his female outreach as:Trump's outreach to women isn't working.
The Des Moines Register poll has a +/- 3.4 percentage point margin of error, and has accurately predicted the state’s winner 4 out of the 5 last presidential races.Again, it doesn't matter how good you are. Pollsters use a 95% confidence level which means even if everything is done perfectly, you still have a 1 in 20 chance that your prediction is bad.
Theoretically, it wouldn’t make any difference.The only way around this is to spend a ton of extra money to survey a much greater sample to raise your confidence level.
I posted earlier that Harris is up 3 in Michigan and 2 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well so as ahead 5 nationally according to a recent Marist poll.The Des Moines Register poll has a +/- 3.4 percentage point margin of error, and has accurately predicted the state’s winner 4 out of the 5 last presidential races.
Traitor Trump might still win Iowa. I’m not asserting that he will or won’t.
Only the remarkableness of the final poll.
Theoretically, it wouldn’t make any difference.
Harris hasn’t bothered to campaign for at-risk House members out your way.He so unsubtle I sum up his female outreach as:
"Why won't you bitches vote for me?"
100%I posted earlier that Harris is up 3 in Michigan and 2 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well so as ahead 5 nationally according to a recent Marist poll.
While I don’t particularly trust polls any more I’d rather be ahead than behind.
In 16 many who were polled, stated they were voting D, yet were voting for TrumpThat’s right. The much revered Des Moines Register of the deep red state of Iowa places Harris ahead of Traitor Trump.
- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
- A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
- The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
- Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”www.desmoinesregister.com
A sign of what we’ll see on Tuesday?
An attempted coupHow did 2020 turn out?
Highly regarded and reliableYou’re missing the point.
It is a statewide poll of Iowans by the Des Moines Register
It is no “outlier”.
And nobody will be laughing harder than me. Except maybe Kamala and Tim.It would be hilarious if it actually happened.
You can see it here, the Emerson College poll from Nov 1/2
This will be one of my sources for voting totals.ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.projects.fivethirtyeight.com
@GroguThis will be one of my sources for voting totals.
Here’s Iowa:
How far state DEMs have fallen, not even challenging Sen. Ernst.
I’m sure you remember how Rep. Braley pissed away his Senate election against her in 2012.
But it doesn't because ann has been touted as the gold standard for the past 8 years at least.
I'll be cackling.And nobody will be laughing harder than me. Except maybe Kamala and Tim.
The "difference it would make" is in having a prediction that you feel more confident is correct. In all likelihood, this is an outlier poll, but we won't know until the results are in.The Des Moines Register poll has a +/- 3.4 percentage point margin of error, and has accurately predicted the state’s winner 4 out of the 5 last presidential races.
Traitor Trump might still win Iowa. I’m not asserting that he will or won’t.
Only the remarkableness of the final poll.
Theoretically, it wouldn’t make any difference.
Harris hasn’t bothered to campaign for at-risk House members out your way.
CO, NM, AZ, NV, CA, OR, WA, and AK will determine who wins the House.
Not a smooth move, but I feel safer saying it today.
I’ll hold off on other more damning critiques until late 11/5.
Two points;The "difference it would make" is in having a prediction that you feel more confident is correct. In all likelihood, this is an outlier poll, but we won't know until the results are in.
To be clear, I'm not attacking The Des Moines Register as a source. It just doesn't look good when you consider that poll as one data point. Likewise I'm not saying the Emerson poll is better, just recent enough that we could also expect it to show some kind of shift in Harris's favor. The fact that the Emerson poll actually shows Trump gaining ground since Harris entered the race isn't a good sign. Granted, there haven't been a whole lot of polls in Iowa, but I would like some kind of confirmation for something so unexpected.Thanks. What’s Emerson’s track record in Iowa?
The Des Moines Register has gotten 4 of the last 5 presidential elections right.
How do past Iowa Poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa?
When an Iowa Poll is released, readers often wonder how close polls track to election results. Compare the past 20 years of presidential results.www.desmoinesregister.com
Yeah, I remember Bruce Braley. He couldn’t stop offending people with his big mouth. And old farmer Chuck, the lackey who the congressional governmental overthrow artists were going to use in place of Pence, is still around
You don't know that. Mathematically, you can't possibly know that. I've explained this ad nauseam.Two points;
1. The Des Moines Register poll is not an outlier.
Finally down to the last few days.2. I haven’t felt comfortable about any presidential election since W’s second term.
I’m very sincerely hoping for a Harris win, but am not under any illusions that another Traitor Trump administration isn’t possible.
there are some MAGA women on this very site that would allow trump to "grab" them in their parts.Why on earth would any woman give their precious vote for a PIG who once bragged that “if you’re famous you can do anything you want” including grabbing a woman by her genitalia then, in effect, RAPING a woman??
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