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Iowa Caucus thread

For 2020, can Iowa democrats change the way their caucus reporting works? The caucus seems a bit odd but straight forward enough but I swear the more I learn about the reporting, the more and more confused I get.

No idea if it was mentioned already, because large thread on recently found, but apparently Hillary supporters' Iowa strategy is to rig coin tosses :2razz:
Sometimes, Iowa Democrats award caucus delegates with a coin flip

In a couple Democratic caucus precincts Monday, a delegate was awarded with a coin toss.

It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.

As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinct’s eight, while Sanders received three.
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Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines and another in Davenport. In all three situations, Clinton won the toss.
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Amazing!

A Caucus determines the number of delegates to be awarded based upon how many attendees show up. Then they caucus untill they come to resolution. Once resolved, there is a recount of attendees, and in three Caucuses the number of attendees had decreased thereby resulting in a loss of one delegate.

So how do they determine which candidate loses the delegate?

Get ready ... here it comes ... by coin-toss!

I kid you not! I just saw a video of one of tonight's coin-tosses on MSNBC.

And ironically, while Hillary currently leads by 4 caucus delegates, she was the winner of all three coin-tosses!

Crazy stuff!

I've got to visit this state sometime soon ...

Edit: Posted concurrently with coyotedelmar

(And I know what TV station he watches!) :2razz:
 
Chomsky said:
Amazing!

A Caucus determines the number of delegates to be awarded based upon how many attendees show up. Then they caucus untill they come to resolution. Once resolved, there is a recount of attendees, and in three Caucuses the number of attendees had decreased thereby resulting in a loss of one delegate.

So how do they determine which candidate loses the delegate?

Get ready ... here it comes ... by coin-toss!

I kid you not! I just saw a video of one of tonight's coin-tosses on MSNBC.

And ironically, while Hillary currently leads by 4 caucus delegates, she was the winner of all three coin-tosses!

Crazy stuff!

I've got to visit this state sometime soon ...
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Don't, cow tipping is the main source of amusement there....the second main source of amusement involves pigs...you don't want to know.
 
Chomsky said:
Amazing!

A Caucus determines the number of delegates to be awarded based upon how many attendees show up. Then they caucus untill they come to resolution. Once resolved, there is a recount of attendees, and in three Caucuses the number of attendees had decreased thereby resulting in a loss of one delegate.

So how do they determine which candidate loses the delegate?

Get ready ... here it comes ... by coin-toss!

I kid you not! I just saw a video of one of tonight's coin-tosses on MSNBC.

And ironically, while Hillary currently leads by 4 caucus delegates, she was the winner of all three coin-tosses!

Crazy stuff!

I've got to visit this state sometime soon ...
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People are already accusing Clinton of rigging the coin tosses. Sometimes it gets hilarious what people come up with.
 
beefheart said:
He is just angry...imagine that..an angry republican...
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I think he's a hillary-bot in mourning over not having a solid establishment victory like he wanted.
 
poweRob said:
I think he's a hillary-bot in mourning over not having a solid establishment victory like he wanted.
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Ummmm...Clinton supporters are pretty happy with tonight.
 
beefheart said:
Don't, cow tipping is the main source of amusement there....the second main source of amusement involves pigs...you don't want to know.
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Aw, common, growing-up in the big-city I never knew any farm-girls; this might be my chance!
 
Wow, we knocked-out 50+ pages in one night!

We're a pretty verbose bunch!
 
Fearandloathing said:
It's all about money.

The loser is usually facing some serious campaign debts, and it is very hard to raise money when you're no longer in the race. So the number 2 and number 3 will blow sweet kisses and go running off with their checkbook.

What you need to know that loser endorsements don't work all that well, and in the end the scraps they will be bargaining for will be 1% or less.

This is part of what is wrong with the long, drawn out system. In the end it comes down to three M's, machinery, momentum and money. With literally billions in play, there is every room for mayhem.
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It's more than money F&L people of faith have finally awaken. Over the last 7 years of the Obama administration they finally saw they were on the short end of the stick. Out of all the evangelicals in the country the majority are not involved in politics. I have friends I dearly love who haven't voted for years.....until now. You see when states like Iowa who voted for marriage to be defined between a man and a woman and a federal judge overturns their vote forcing them to adapt didn't go well especially seeing fellow Iowans fighting lawsuits to keep their licenses to even perform marriages. Iowans like the rest of the country have watched bakers, photographers etc. who should have been protected under state constitutions only to have a federal judge override their votes. .....it has become a states rights issue.

People in Iowa are also in tune to eminent domain abuse this present administration has perused. Farmers/ranchers are being effected.

People in Iowa in the majority did not support Obamacare .

Now how did a senator from Texas win their vote? Because he is on the same page as the majority of them. Cruz thinks marriage should be defined by state. Cruz thinks everything of Obamacare should be ended.

And Cruz was the first in history to reject the ethanol subsidy and win Iowa's vote. That's huge F&L because for decades Republicans have been waiting for some candidate to stand up to it. Cruz is the first!.
 
Chomsky said:
Amazing!

A Caucus determines the number of delegates to be awarded based upon how many attendees show up. Then they caucus untill they come to resolution. Once resolved, there is a recount of attendees, and in three Caucuses the number of attendees had decreased thereby resulting in a loss of one delegate.

So how do they determine which candidate loses the delegate?

Get ready ... here it comes ... by coin-toss!

I kid you not! I just saw a video of one of tonight's coin-tosses on MSNBC.

And ironically, while Hillary currently leads by 4 caucus delegates, she was the winner of all three coin-tosses!

Crazy stuff!

I've got to visit this state sometime soon ...

Edit: Posted concurrently with coyotedelmar

(And I know what TV station he watches!) :2razz:
Click to expand...

From 538, clarifying this:

There’s been some talk about coin tosses going against Sanders to settle who would get a delegate in the case of a tie. These ties are not for statewide delegate equivalents. They are for county delegates. Those are different, and not nearly as big a deal.
 
cAPSLOCK said:
Saying hateful **** about a candidate's family oozes with shallowness and lack of class.
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lighten up francis.webp

the good news is word has it that the donald is about to buy the farm
 
With just 17 precincts left Hillary has a 2 delegate lead
 
Redress said:
From 538, clarifying this:

There’s been some talk about coin tosses going against Sanders to settle who would get a delegate in the case of a tie. These ties are not for statewide delegate equivalents. They are for county delegates. Those are different, and not nearly as big a deal.
Click to expand...
That's a pretty misleading statement, whether intentional or not (likely not, seeing as it'd 538).

Those state delegates determine the allotment of national delegates, although the author appears to be saying 3 coin tossed state delegates in this instance did not change the national delegate award. I don't know if that's true or not, but even if supposing it is, those state level caucus delegates seem to be what's determining the statewide percentages and candidate order.

So right now Sen Sanders is 3 Caucus delegates short; If he were to have been awarded those 3 delegates he would be the winner by 3, and then would be reported in first place and having won the Iowa Caucuses.

Whether that would flip the national delegate count, I don't know (it may, for all we know). But it's clear those 3 delegates matter as to who we and the press declare "the winner".

And that's a big momentum deal, IMO!

So I think the 538 tweet is pretty bogus.

Does my logic make sense?

Edit: Hang-on.

I might be wrong on this after rereading!

Damn, this process is confusing!
 
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Chomsky said:
That's a pretty misleading statement, whether intentional or not (likely not, seeing as it'd 538).

Those state delegates determine the allotment of national delegates, although the author appears to be saying 3 coin tossed state delegates in this instance did not change the national delegate award. I don't know if that's true or not, but even if supposing it is, those state level caucus delegates seem to be what's determining the statewide percentages and candidate order.

So right now Sen Sanders is 3 Caucus delegates short; If he were to have been awarded those 3 delegates he would be the winner by 3, and then would be reported in first place and having won the Iowa Caucuses.

Whether that would flip the national delegate count, I don't know (it may, for all we know). But it's clear those 3 delegates matter as to who we and the press declare "the winner".

And that's a big momentum deal, IMO!

So I think the 538 tweet is pretty bogus.

Does my logic make sense?
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They are not state delegates, they are county delegates.
 
Either way, win or lose, at this point, Iowa is a net loss for Hillary in my view; nothing about the narrative is good for her vis a vis Bernie, between the extreme, desperate closeness punctuated by coinflips, and the C-Span couched accusations of voter fraud/interference against the Clinton campaign.
 
Surrealistik said:
Either way, win or lose, at this point, Iowa is a net loss for Hillary in my view; nothing about the narrative is good for her vis a vis Bernie, between the extreme, desperate closeness punctuated by coinflips, and the C-Span couched accusations of voter fraud/interference against the Clinton campaign.
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When you are as far ahead as she is there is only one way to go. She still won Iowa (probably, still 11 precincts to go) and she is still a virtual lock to win the nomination

if Sanders prevails narrowly in Iowa or New Hampshire, his support among liberal whites and in college towns - essentially Portlandia - would be entirely consistent with a scenario in which he also gets clobbered by Clinton nationally.
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Bernie-Mania's Barrier: Democratic Delegate Math
 
Crovax said:
When you are as far ahead as she is there is only one way to go. She still won Iowa (probably, still 11 precincts to go) and she is still a virtual lock to win the nomination

Bernie-Mania's Barrier: Democratic Delegate Math
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If you want to argue that Hillary is still the favourite for the nomination, that's fine and reasonable. The fact remains though, that there is precious little that is positive for her about this outcome in Iowa in light of what happened, even if she wins it by a hair.
 
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