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One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
- When you think of Donald Trump do you like or dislike him personally?
- Like him personally 26%
Dislike him personally 58%
Unsure / Don't Know 15%
Xelor Comment:
It's quite surprising to me that the "unsure" rate is as close as it is to the "like him" rate.- If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you...?
- Definitely vote for Trump 22%
Probably vote for Trump 11%
Probably vote for the Democratic candidate 11%
Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate 33%
I will vote for an Independent or Other Candidate 11%
Not Sure / Other 13%
Xelor Comment:
Trump's starting with a full 10% deficit comparing the "definitely" and "probably" responses for him vs. an generic Democratic candidate.
That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.- Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group - or if you've never heard of them.
- Barack Obama 59%
Joe Biden 54%
Bernie Sanders 49%
James Mattis 40%
Mike Pence 39%
Hillary Clinton 38%
Donald Trump 37%
Robert Mueller 36%
Xelor Comment:
I don't know what the margin of error is for the poll, but I know that Barry, Bernie and Joe fall outside of it, Jim may fall outside of it, the other above shown persons are in a "dead heat" with trump as goes favorability. Also, even though Trump isn't the worst on favorability, he is the worst on unfavorability (page 37). Interestingly, Bob has roughly equal rates on favorability and unfavorability, whereas there's a huge chasm between Trump's two rates on those two qualities. The Trump negative rating's prodigious primacy over his positive rating portends that profoundly puissant and persistent be the polity's preponderant pique with and misprision for him.- Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
- Trump should give in 58%
Should not give in 42%
Xelor Comment:
Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.
Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.
The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1
Notes:
- General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
- I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
- That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.
My game console, which I probably shouldn't be using to post on this board, does not like the link. You wouldn't by chance know the average ages of people sampled, would you? Or whether or not this poll neglected cell-phones?
It’s all according to who they ask those questions, some collage full of liberals?
One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
FWIW, the OP's first link goes directly to a PDF document depicting the topline results from the poll. (Crosstab information is a separate link.) Attached below is the age data you requested. The first page of the topline report indicates the following as goes the data collection approach:
This survey was conducted online within the United States from December 24-25, 2018 among 1,473 registered voters by The Harris Poll.
Based on that, I'd say the nobody responded as a result of having been called and asked the poll questions.
My game console, which I probably shouldn't be using to post on this board, does not like the link. You wouldn't by chance know the average ages of people sampled, would you? Or whether or not this poll neglected cell-phones?
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HHP_December2018_RVs_Topline.pdfThis survey was conducted online within the United States from December 24-25, 2018 among 1,473 registered voters by The Harris Poll.
Well here are the metrics on the poll:
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HHP_December2018_RVs_Topline.pdf
Typical online polling is random from people willing to participate. I have seen many online polls popping up over the years and have refused to participate in any. I have also received polls in the mail, which I have refused to participate in.
IMO most people who participate in such polls have an axe to grind.
I would like to note that according to the poll numbers 32% of the respondents were Republicans and 39% were Democrats. Seems like the numbers reflect Republicans still support him, and Democrats don't. The different seems to be independents who are most likely being swayed by the constant MSN attack propaganda. :shrug:
Independents if being swayed are being swayed away from Donald by Donald himself. There are not that many Americans that are still wearing the Trump Rose colored glasses, available for $19.95 under the Ivanka Line anywhere utter crap is sold.
Red:
What? From whence did you get "the any demorat [sic] will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data" proposition/conclusion?
That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.
Well, to be fair, I am on record as admitting repeatedly that Twitter is not Trump's friend, and he would have been better served staying off it. It only adds meat to the MSN feeding frenzy.
But he is a 70+ year old "populist" and doesn't seem to understand the social dynamics have changed (IMHO) thanks to the Progressive-Left's 30+ years domination of American Education. :coffeepap:
One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
- Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
- Trump should give in 58%
Should not give in 42%
Xelor Comment:
Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.
Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.
The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1
Notes:
- General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
- I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
- That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.
When you speak of odds, you speak of betting odds.
A month prior to Nov 2016, Trump was +600. This with two candidates. Today Trump's odds are +150, against the field. Meaning that to win a hundred you have to put up 150.
Donald Trump +150
Kamala Harris +1000
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Bernie Sanders +1200
Joe Biden +1400
Elizabeth Warren +2000
Mike Pence +2000
Cory Booker +2000
Kirsten Gillibrand +3000
Oprah Winfrey +3000
Michelle Obama +3300
Keep in mind that US citizens cannot technically bet on US politics, so these are mostly overseas thoughts.
The bottom line though is Trump is favored 8-1 over any Democrat candidate.
I think these Trump is done opinions are wishful thinking. To win the Dems have to do better than Harris, Beto, Bernie, Biden, Warren. I don't see that candidate waiting in the wings. Hillary BTW is not even in the top 10 at +6600. Tied with Hickenlooper and Zuckerberg.
When you speak of odds, you speak of betting odds.
A month prior to Nov 2016, Trump was +600. This with two candidates. Today Trump's odds are +150, against the field. Meaning that to win a hundred you have to put up 150.
Donald Trump +150
Kamala Harris +1000
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Bernie Sanders +1200
Joe Biden +1400
Elizabeth Warren +2000
Mike Pence +2000
Cory Booker +2000
Kirsten Gillibrand +3000
Oprah Winfrey +3000
Michelle Obama +3300
Keep in mind that US citizens cannot technically bet on US politics, so these are mostly overseas thoughts.
The bottom line though is Trump is favored 8-1 over any Democrat candidate.
I think these Trump is done opinions are wishful thinking. To win the Dems have to do better than Harris, Beto, Bernie, Biden, Warren. I don't see that candidate waiting in the wings. Hillary BTW is not even in the top 10 at +6600. Tied with Hickenlooper and Zuckerberg.
Donald's problems fall into three major categories IMO. The three buckets of issues that really hurt him in a re-election bid are:..
- His lack of communication skills including his use of twitter. He insists on campaigning 100% of the time and runs his Executive office 0% of the time. Most recent example of disregarding the responsibilities of his Executive office for campaigning, the disgusting display of the Iraq troop visit.
- His utter incompetence in the job and the incompetence of those that have been left standing since Trump decided that he could remove the guardrails.
- The massive corruption of this administration, beyond anything we have seen in the modern era...way beyond it....from Trump's emoluments issues through the missing $40M from his inauguration through to the most corrupt bunch of cabinet heads ever assembled by anybody!
Well here are the metrics on the poll:
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HHP_December2018_RVs_Topline.pdf
Typical online polling is random from people willing to participate. I have seen many online polls popping up over the years and have refused to participate in any. I have also received polls in the mail, which I have refused to participate in.
IMO most people who participate in such polls have an axe to grind.
I would like to note that according to the poll numbers 32% of the respondents were Republicans and 37% were Democrats. Seems like the numbers reflect Republicans still support him, and Democrats don't. The different seems to be independents who are most likely being swayed by the constant MSN attack propaganda. :shrug:
Thanks for posting this. Saved me the time to get it.
Here is the latest Gallup Party Affiliation numbers:
Dem - 32%
Rep - 26%
Ind - 39%
So...that poll oversampled Reps and Dems and grossly undersampled Ind.
Add to that the inherent deficiencies of an online poll and...
POLL REJECTED!!
One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
Red:Well let me respond one point at a time.
1. I've already addressed his Twitter problem. However, I agree with you on the constant campaigning. Yet I understand it based on how he thinks. ...
Blue:2. He was not elected to be another highly polished political insider. This is something that I think people like yourself fail to understand. ...
Well, to be fair, I am on record as admitting repeatedly that Twitter is not Trump's friend, and he would have been better served staying off it. It only adds meat to the MSN feeding frenzy.
But he is a 70+ year old "populist" and doesn't seem to understand the social dynamics have changed (IMHO) thanks to the Progressive-Left's 30+ years domination of American Education. :coffeepap:
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