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If there are no jobs then what?

kanabco

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?
 

reinoe

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?

That's the goal of people like Clinton and Obama. Massive American unemployment.
 

ajn678

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With automation we eventually will need to start dealing with the fact that we will have large populations that will have no job opportunities. We will also need to figure out what we do with those people.
 

Hawkeye10

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?

The situation today is the the unemployed/underemployed number is 14%, and 16 million people have dropped out of the workforce in the last 10 years and so are not counted because of the nitso way we define unemployment. Clearly at some point government funded jobs or welfare will need to be put in place since there are not enough jobs. I think to we should subsidize people over 45 working part time, and also having a child if a parent will agree to leave the workforce for a few years....we need to clear up some space for young people to get a foothold before they decide **** IT! and burn the place to the ground.
 

Goshin

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?



Things are going to change a lot in the next 20 years, no doubt.


Not just automation as in industrial robots, but smart computer programs that will replace lots of low and mid level technical and engineering jobs.


Over the next 20-40 years, about half of the population is going to become all but unemployable in the current sense... and something will have to change.


BLM is one possibility. Maybe "real human service" will become a high paying luxury item for the rich at exclusive restaurants. Hard to say exactly how things will fall out.
 

chuckiechan

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Early in the US development leaders recognized that to have a society, you had to have workers, not serfs. You needed to get money into the hands of the population at a level that allows for discretionary income high enough for goods beyond a subsistence lifestyle.

Automation will eventually hit that wall in countries with high populations. Automation is fine in countries with low birth rates.

We need to slash general immigration until our U6 is under 6%, and unemployment is at 4%. We can live with 9 - 10%, and we have problems with u6 at 10% and regular unemployment at 5% due to social costs.
 

Pumpkin Row

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?
Well, people have to build and maintain those machines, and even if they didn't, if the workforce was replaced by machines entirely, then businesses would have no consumers, because nobody would be making money. Even then, there are jobs that machines can't do, like politics, and developing the software and hardware for those machines. Also jobs in video game development, making information technology, teaching science, etc.
 

Pumpkin Row

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Early in the US development leaders recognized that to have a society, you had to have workers, not serfs. You needed to get money into the hands of the population at a level that allows for discretionary income high enough for goods beyond a subsistence lifestyle.

Automation will eventually hit that wall in countries with high populations. Automation is fine in countries with low birth rates.

We need to slash general immigration until our U6 is under 6%, and unemployment is at 4%. We can live with 9 - 10%, and we have problems with u6 at 10% and regular unemployment at 5% due to social costs.

Unemployment is actually at around 9.6%, when you exclude people on Federal Aid from the total.
 

_Sal

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?
larger
 

sookster

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I think the goal of humanity and of robotics is to free humanity from labor. Capitalism would be a dieing construct, and old system that made this current life possible. There is no capitalism with automation. And really I think that is a good thing. We have quantum computers. It is just a matter of time until we derive AI.

Will the movies predict what happens with AI? I don't think so. I think we just fear the unknown, and that manifests in those stories. With AI, you could calculate new technologies, quantum computers are already computing new materials by predicting the bonds between various substances. The computer then updates a database. Once the database is complete, and all known materials are derived, the quantum computer can be used for other means. And I am sure there are other quantum computers being made.

That means, with an AI, the AI could derive new technologies for the human race. If we automate the process of taking these ideas, and bringing them to life, and if you automate the acquisition of materials, and keep it in par with consumption, you have a fully automated society.

Need new shoes? Order it. Want to go hiking? Sure! Don't have to work. I feel like Jet Skiing, so I'm going to take a Maglev train to the Caribbean.

Forcing people to work for some old ideal makes no sense. With technology, the rules of the game changes. With the society I briefly described, there would be no need for a currency, everything is controlled by the AI.

Americans work hard to work hard. It's time we work hard to work less, or should I say, not at all.
 

JC Callender

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I think we'll be fine, we just need to find a way for one member of a family to support spouse and kids. We'll also have to start thinking of building outside of Earth as our population isn't exactly shrinking. That'll take a lot of manpower.
 

Captain Adverse

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?

That is the propaganda argument we are hearing from the special interests who back automation. That more jobs have been created. But this is a shell game:

avings from a more efficient industry...flow back to the economy in one or more of the following three ways: lower prices (e.g., lower cost for groceries), higher wages for the fewer remaining employers, or higher profits. In a competitive grocery retail market, most of the savings would flow back to consumers in the form of lower prices. Consumers use the savings on lower groceries to go out to dinner a few times, buy books, watch movies, or any number of other things. This economic activity stimulates demand that other companies (e.g., restaurants, book stores, movie theaters, airlines, and hotels) respond to by hiring more workers.
Technology and Automation Create, Not Destroy, Jobs | The Innovation Files

So the argument is that while there is a decrease in production jobs, the "savings" due to increased productivity lowering prices allows those who remain employed to have more money to spend, and creates more jobs in the service industry.

The problem with this argument is, it does not address the factors of an increasing population; decreasing employment opportunities as more and more businesses automate; decreases in existing levels of active employment as automation advances in businesses already automated; all leading to less consumer spending as fewer and fewer people can earn anything. Meanwhile we keep hearing how those service businesses are starting to automate too.

Yeah, I see real unemployment increasing in the not too distant future unless some realistic action is taken to develop employment opportunities to address those items listed.
 
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chromium

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I think the goal of humanity and of robotics is to free humanity from labor. Capitalism would be a dieing construct, and old system that made this current life possible. There is no capitalism with automation. And really I think that is a good thing. We have quantum computers. It is just a matter of time until we derive AI.

Will the movies predict what happens with AI? I don't think so. I think we just fear the unknown, and that manifests in those stories. With AI, you could calculate new technologies, quantum computers are already computing new materials by predicting the bonds between various substances. The computer then updates a database. Once the database is complete, and all known materials are derived, the quantum computer can be used for other means. And I am sure there are other quantum computers being made.

That means, with an AI, the AI could derive new technologies for the human race. If we automate the process of taking these ideas, and bringing them to life, and if you automate the acquisition of materials, and keep it in par with consumption, you have a fully automated society.

Need new shoes? Order it. Want to go hiking? Sure! Don't have to work. I feel like Jet Skiing, so I'm going to take a Maglev train to the Caribbean.

Forcing people to work for some old ideal makes no sense. With technology, the rules of the game changes. With the society I briefly described, there would be no need for a currency, everything is controlled by the AI.

Americans work hard to work hard. It's time we work hard to work less, or should I say, not at all.

yes and it will be painful to get to the point where a $1000 computer can solve all our energy, food, medical, and infrastructure problems. Many will starve as governments are slow to react. Hell, they're still bickering over illegal immigrants and factories moving overseas like it's 1988. Today, we can cope with half being underemployed and pooling resources, but half with NO income? Take a look at brazil and greece to see how badly things can fall apart in just a few years
 

Carjosse

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That's the goal of people like Clinton and Obama. Massive American unemployment.

No it is the inevitable march of technology, Clinton and Obama have nothing to do with it. There is also nothing you can do to stop it.
 

sookster

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yes and it will be painful to get to the point where a $1000 computer can solve all our energy, food, medical, and infrastructure problems. Many will starve as governments are slow to react. Hell, they're still bickering over illegal immigrants and factories moving overseas like it's 1988. Today, we can cope with half being underemployed and pooling resources, but half with NO income? Take a look at brazil and greece to see how badly things can fall apart in just a few years

That's austerity. What does that have to do with automation?
 

Casca XV

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Nonsense. :roll:

They have achieved it. Pre Obama 6% or less U3 unemployment meant everyone who wanted a job had one or was short time between jobs. Not even Obama himself claims that to be true today. Today’s U3 is mostly due to the millions unemployed so long they are no longer counted, rt Obamacare turning 1 fulltime job into 2 or 3 parttime jobs..
 

MaggieD

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?

It'll all work out. And not at 20% unemployment.

People will be job sharing...more people will be accustomed to paying for services than are right now. We may have more stay-at-home moms as couples realize the value of that decision and reject McMansions in favor of less space and more practical designs. Welfare roles will probably increase as gvmt makes it easier to stay out of the workforce. Retirement age may decrease. The gvmt may open Medicare to sixty-year-olds to encourage earlier retirement. Social engineering is a powerful tool. I think we're going to see more and more of it as time goes by.
 

Moot

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They have achieved it. Pre Obama 6% or less U3 unemployment meant everyone who wanted a job had one or was short time between jobs. Not even Obama himself claims that to be true today. Today’s U3 is mostly due to the millions unemployed so long they are no longer counted, rt Obamacare turning 1 fulltime job into 2 or 3 parttime jobs..

Did you factor in the millions of baby boomers that are retiring? Get back with me when you do.

Remember this...



“You work three jobs? That's uniquely American, isn't it? That's fantastic."

And that was years before "Obamacare".
 

Fishking

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Many of us were brought up to fear automation only to see it produce more product, a better economy, and more jobs.
It is a hard argument to debate because of the very strong post hoc evidence.

Does anyone here think we are looking at a "very normal" 20% unemployment by 2030? 2040?

It's not automation that's the problem. Even with automation there are still plenty of jobs that won't be automated for a while. Then you have all the ancillary jobs related to having the manufacturing plant there (e.g. trucking, construction, maintenance, power plants, commercial businesses, ect.)

We don't have jobs because we allow free trade with countries that can get away with paying workers $5/day and pump endless amounts of pollution into the air. We simply cannot have free trade with countries of unequal economies and standards and expect to keep jobs here.
 

Casca XV

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Did you factor in the millions of baby boomers that are retiring? Get back with me when you do.

Remember this...



“You work three jobs? That's uniquely American, isn't it? That's fantastic."

And that was years before "Obamacare".


In a good economy a Babyboomer retiring would create a job opening for a younger person (no negative impact on U3 or LPR). In this terrible Obama economy the retired Babyboomer is not replaced. The LPR decreases, as it has. When that young person gives up looking the U3 is not affected and leftist get to lie about actual unemployment under Obama. Checkmate

You are attempting to take the Quote from W is out of context. He was complementing Americans on their work ethic. Average Income was high under him until Dems took majorities in the senate and congress in 2006. nice propaganda try.
 

Moot

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In a good economy a Babyboomer retiring would create a job opening for a younger person (no negative impact on U3 or LPR). In this terrible Obama economy the retired Babyboomer is not replaced. The LPR decreases, as it has. When that young person gives up looking the U3 is not affected and leftist get to lie about actual unemployment under Obama. Checkmate.
Do you have a link that compares 2015-16 economy to when the recession started in 2007 -08 ? Also, do you have a link to back up your claim that retiring baby boomers aren't being replaced with younger workers?

You are attempting to take the Quote from W is out of context. He was complementing Americans on their work ethic. Average Income was high under him until Dems took majorities in the senate and congress in 2006. nice propaganda try.
No I'm not...you are. Apparently, Bush's quote doesn't fit your narrative that everything wrong in the world is Obama's fault. But as you can see, "working two or three jobs" was a problem when Bush was president, too.
 
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pinqy

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The situation today is the the unemployed/underemployed number is 14%, and 16 million people have dropped out of the workforce in the last 10 years and so are not counted because of the nitso way we define unemployment. .
What is the source of your numbers? And what's wrong with the employment definition? The purpose is to measure how much available labor is not being used. Someone not trying to get a job is not available to work. So why should they be considered the same as those trying to get a job?

Unemployment is actually at around 9.6%, when you exclude people on Federal Aid from the total.

How are you calculating that?

They have achieved it. Pre Obama 6% or less U3 unemployment meant everyone who wanted a job had one or was short time between jobs. Not even Obama himself claims that to be true today. Today’s U3 is mostly due to the millions unemployed so long they are no longer counted, rt Obamacare turning 1 fulltime job into 2 or 3 parttime jobs..
There has been no change in definitions or methodology of unemployment that would affect the U-3.
There is no time limit for unemployed so no one is "unemployed so long they are no longer counted." And for the unemployment rate, people are counted once no matter how many jobs they have.

Does anyone bother to do research?
 

pinqy

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In a good economy a Babyboomer retiring would create a job opening for a younger person (no negative impact on U3 or LPR).
A retiring upper-management baby-boomer gets replaced by an entry level college grad? I don't know you work, but that doesn't happen.


In this terrible Obama economy the retired Babyboomer is not replaced. The LPR decreases, as it has.
There are far more baby boomers of retirement age than there are young people to "replace" them. It doesn't matter how good the economy is.


When that young person gives up looking the U3 is not affected
Why not? That would be one less unemployed and one less in the labor force.
 

Hawkeye10

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What is the source of your numbers? And what's wrong with the employment definition? The purpose is to measure how much available labor is not being used. Someone not trying to get a job is not available to work. So why should they be considered the same as those trying to get a job?



How are you calculating that?


There has been no change in definitions or methodology of unemployment that would affect the U-3.
There is no time limit for unemployed so no one is "unemployed so long they are no longer counted." And for the unemployment rate, people are counted once no matter how many jobs they have.

Does anyone bother to do research?

Not U it seems
16 million Americans have dropped out of the labor force in the last 10 years: The growth of long-term unemployment, low wage labor, and distorted employment figures.
• U.S. underemployment rate - May 2016 | Statistic
Real Unemployment - Department of Labor (U-6)
 
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