How It Spreads

[calamity]

South Korea did a great job of following the back trail of this thing. Long story short, don't be like "Patient 31."

In the four weeks following the incident, South Korea managed to avoid a major outbreak with only 30 people contracting the virus, despite many interactions between those later confirmed as being sick and hundreds more people being identified as contacts of the sick patients.

This changed with the emergence of “Patient 31.”

2019 coronavirus: The Korean clusters

It’s not clear where Patient 31 became infected with the virus, but in the days before her diagnosis, she travelled to crowded spots in Daegu, as well as in the capital Seoul. On February 6 she was in a minor traffic accident in Daegu, and checked herself into an Oriental medicine hospital. While at that hospital, she attended services at the Daegu branch of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, on February 9 and again on February 16.

In between those visits, on February 15, doctors at the hospital said they first suggested she be tested for the coronavirus, as she had a high fever. Instead, the woman went to a buffet lunch with a friend at a hotel. In an interview with local newspaper JoongAng Ilbo, the woman denied that doctors had advised her to be tested. As her symptoms worsened, however, doctors say they once again advised her to be tested. On February 17, she finally went to another hospital for the test. The next day, health authorities announced she was the country’s 31st confirmed case. In only a matter of days, those numbers had soared as hundreds of people at the Shincheonji Church and surrounding areas tested positive.

 

[PoS]

South Korea did a great job of following the back trail of this thing. Long story short, don't be like "Patient 31."

2019 coronavirus: The Korean clusters

So you want people to be like Jeremiah Johnson?

 

[NWRatCon]

Here's a pretty good description of how epidemiologists estimate the spread of the virus in the absence of firm data: How much is coronavirus spreading under the radar? (nature)

Can scientists estimate the size of an outbreak without widespread testing?
Yes. Experts say that they compare various lines of evidence. One estimate begins with the number of deaths in an area. Farrar calls this a “guesstimate” because each of the variables researchers are using right now are subject to change, introducing uncertainty at each step in the calculation. However, it goes something like this: Data from China suggest that about three weeks passes between when a person feels sick and dies from COVID-19. And if you assume a case fatality rate of roughly 1%, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that each death represents about 100 cases in the first week. Right now, he adds, you can expect the epidemic to double each week if those cases aren’t identified and isolated — bringing the estimate to 400 at the time of death. Because the error bars on each of these variables are large, epidemiologists check their figures against further information.

For example, experts have turned to analyses of coronavirus genomes. The best example is from Seattle, Washington, where on 29 February, Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre, and his colleagues reported that the genome of a virus collected from a teenager near the city closely matched that of one collected six weeks earlier, from an unrelated woman in her sixties who had returned to Seattle from China. The simplest explanation was that the virus had spread from the woman to other people, who spread it to yet others, eventually reaching the teenager. Bedford’s team calculated that over the six weeks, several hundred people could have been infected.

On average, the RO (spread rate, transmissiblity) of COVID-19 is estimated at about 2, meaning it doubles during the incubation period. That, by the way, is relatively high. That explains the spread rate in the charts. It essentially doubles nearly daily, absent intervention. That's where containment measures come in.

 

[calamity]

So you want people to be like Jeremiah Johnson?

No, I just want people not to behave like Typhoid Mary.

 

[apdst]

So you want people to be like Jeremiah Johnson?

That's the best way to create a societal and an economic collapse.

 

[calamity]

Here's a pretty good description of how epidemiologists estimate the spread of the virus in the absence of firm data: How much is coronavirus spreading under the radar? (nature) On average, the RO (spread rate, transmissiblity) of COVID-19 is estimated at about 2, meaning it doubles during the incubation period. That, by the way, is relatively high. That explains the spread rate in the charts. It essentially doubles nearly daily, absent intervention. That's where containment measures come in.

Yes, it is highly contagious, perhaps even airborne. That's why all these people who simply were exposed to someone with it so quickly caught it.

Remember, in late January, this thing was only seen in Wuhan. Today, less then three months later, it's engulfed Iran, Italy, Spain, the US, most of the Middle East, UK, etc...and, god knows where else that it is not being reported like Russia and NK.

 

[apdst]

No, I just want people not to behave like Typhoid Mary.

Like this?

Denver Councilwoman Candi CdeBaca tweets about spreading coronavirus to MAGA supporters

 

[calamity]

Like this?

Denver Councilwoman Candi CdeBaca tweets about spreading coronavirus to MAGA supporters

It's just a hoax tho :roll:

But, your site being infected wasn't.

 

[apdst]

It's just a hoax tho :roll:

It is? You've been trying to sow panic and now it's a hoax? :lamo

 

[NWRatCon]

apdst merely wanted to highlight his personal hypocrisy on the issue. Trump jokes about it, that's okay; Dem retweets a joke about it, it's cause for retribution. The reality is (as the article points out), "The backlash is part of a cycle from out-of-town conservative activists and right-wing reporters." I guess that identifies which camp it is coming from, huh?

 

[calamity]

It is? You've been trying to sow panic and now it's a hoax? :lamo

At least I don't post infected links.

 

[PeteEU]

South Korea did a great job of following the back trail of this thing. Long story short, don't be like "Patient 31."

2019 coronavirus: The Korean clusters

Denmark and Iceland did something similar. In the beginning only people from risk areas were checked in both countries, but in late January Iceland changed policy and tested everyone. Over time they realized that a ski resort town area in Austrian Tyrol was a hot zone.

During this period in Denmark the spread started and our CDC started to figure out where over 100 got it since they were not in official hot zones like China or Italy. They realised that they had all been at the same exact ski resort area and in fact town. By this time the Icelandic study was released and only on Monday did Austria admit that the Tyrol skiing area was a hot zone. Too late of course.

Now further investigation has revealed that a bartender (think it was that) in this ski resort town was one of the first officially infected in Austria and most likely patient zero.

Tyrol, is close to South Tryol which is in Italy, which is right next to Lombardy, the main breakout area in Europe.

Sent from my Honor 8X

 

[JANFU]

So you want people to be like Jeremiah Johnson?

If you had symptoms and the Dr recommended testing for C19, you would refuse.
Got it

 

[calamity]

Denmark and Iceland did something similar. In the beginning only people from risk areas were checked in both countries, but in late January Iceland changed policy and tested everyone. Over time they realized that a ski resort town area in Austrian Tyrol was a hot zone.

During this period in Denmark the spread started and our CDC started to figure out where over 100 got it since they were not in official hot zones like China or Italy. They realised that they had all been at the same exact ski resort area and in fact town. By this time the Icelandic study was released and only on Monday did Austria admit that the Tyrol skiing area was a hot zone. Too late of course.

Now further investigation has revealed that a bartender (think it was that) in this ski resort town was one of the first officially infected in Austria and most likely patient zero.

Tyrol, is close to South Tryol which is in Italy, which is right next to Lombardy, the main breakout area in Europe.

Sent from my Honor 8X

Yes, that's the region where my parents planned to go for vacation next month. They go to Tyrol and No Italy every couple of years. Needless to say, that trip is now on hold.

 

[MSgt]

If you had symptoms and the Dr recommended testing for C19, you would refuse.
Got it

Well, considering that Trump wound up taking the test, he has signaled to his flock that they are free to take care of themselves and allow their doctor to matter.

Of greater shock is how Trump's flock applauded the idea that the President of the United States, arguably the most powerful position in the world, would rather be vulnerable than to allow health officials, Democrat and Republican allies, foreign governments, and international organizations tell him what to do. Fortunately, depending on how you look at it, there appears to be a few adults left standing in the White House. Probably his wife and daughter, both of whom have appeared to have disappeared from being associated to him but don't want to see him die either. Because the legion of yes-men that entirely surround Trump anymore only care to agree with his nonsensical and idiotic whims.

 

[PoS]

If you had symptoms and the Dr recommended testing for C19, you would refuse.
Got it

 

[NWRatCon]

Today marks the 6th week of Covid-19 reporting in the US. (The first reported case was identified Jan 21.) To date there have been over 3300 reported cases (56 people have recovered). John's Hopkins University is keeping a running tally. The charts on this page are very informative. Between March 1 and today we have gone from 75 cases to 3300 (although improved testing accounts for much of this). That puts the spread of the virus about a week behind estimates (although, again, lack of testing affects this number too). By the end of this week, it is estimated that 30,000 cases will be identified (based upon better testing and expected spread).

 

[JANFU]

Well, considering that Trump wound up taking the test, he has signaled to his flock that they are free to take care of themselves and allow their doctor to matter.

Of greater shock is how Trump's flock applauded the idea that the President of the United States, arguably the most powerful position in the world, would rather be vulnerable than to allow health officials, Democrat and Republican allies, foreign governments, and international organizations tell him what to do. Fortunately, depending on how you look at it, there appears to be a few adults left standing in the White House. Probably his wife and daughter, both of whom have appeared to have disappeared from being associated to him but don't want to see him die either. Because the legion of yes-men that entirely surround Trump anymore only care to agree with his nonsensical and idiotic whims.

Yes he has completely mishandled C19

True how older people take the seriousness of C19 is split along party affiliation

 

[calamity]

Yes he has completely mishandled C19

True how older people take the seriousness of C19 is split along party affiliation

THat's not a bad thing, if you think about it.

 

[Barnacle]

South Korea did a great job of following the back trail of this thing. Long story short, don't be like "Patient 31."
...
2019 coronavirus: The Korean clusters
...

We had on this board the story about the father that took his daughter to a father-daughter dance, despite the fact that he was identified as a Corona virus case.

From Hawaii we have the story of 2 people carrying it everywhere ...

"Details have emerged regarding the latest 2 cases in Kauai: a couple who had traveled from Indiana arriving in Maui on March 2. Shortly after their arrival, one of the visitors developed a fever, shortness of breath and cough and went to an urgent care facility. On March 7, the second visitor also developed symptoms and went to urgent care. A day later, both of the visitors flew to Kauai, staying at the Kauai Marriott, and on March 9, one of the visitors visited again an urgent care facility. Finally, on March 12, the two informed health care workers that they had close contact with an individual who had tested positive for coronavirus. 2 health care workers in Maui and 1 in Kauai are now in self-isolation because they were not wearing protective equipment"


Basically, this happens most likely a thousand fold every day in the US and there is nothing that can be done to stop it from happening.

 

[Lursa]

Yes, it is highly contagious, perhaps even airborne. That's why all these people who simply were exposed to someone with it so quickly caught it.

Remember, in late January, this thing was only seen in Wuhan. Today, less then three months later, it's engulfed Iran, Italy, Spain, the US, most of the Middle East, UK, etc...and, god knows where else that it is not being reported like Russia and NK.

They think now tho, that it was here in Jan. We just didnt recognize it.

 

[Lursa]

apdst merely wanted to highlight his personal hypocrisy on the issue. Trump jokes about it, that's okay; Dem retweets a joke about it, it's cause for retribution. The reality is (as the article points out), "The backlash is part of a cycle from out-of-town conservative activists and right-wing reporters." I guess that identifies which camp it is coming from, huh?

Because millions of sick and dead people dont lead to "societal and economic collapse." :doh

:lamo

 

[Lursa]

We had on this board the story about the father that took his daughter to a father-daughter dance, despite the fact that he was identified as a Corona virus case.

From Hawaii we have the story of 2 people carrying it everywhere ...

"Details have emerged regarding the latest 2 cases in Kauai: a couple who had traveled from Indiana arriving in Maui on March 2. Shortly after their arrival, one of the visitors developed a fever, shortness of breath and cough and went to an urgent care facility. On March 7, the second visitor also developed symptoms and went to urgent care. A day later, both of the visitors flew to Kauai, staying at the Kauai Marriott, and on March 9, one of the visitors visited again an urgent care facility. Finally, on March 12, the two informed health care workers that they had close contact with an individual who had tested positive for coronavirus. 2 health care workers in Maui and 1 in Kauai are now in self-isolation because they were not wearing protective equipment"


Basically, this happens most likely a thousand fold every day in the US and there is nothing that can be done to stop it from happening.

Well, social distancing and all the closures are meant to flatten the curve of that spread and to lessen it.

 

[apdst]

apdst merely wanted to highlight his personal hypocrisy on the issue. Trump jokes about it, that's okay; Dem retweets a joke about it, it's cause for retribution. The reality is (as the article points out), "The backlash is part of a cycle from out-of-town conservative activists and right-wing reporters." I guess that identifies which camp it is coming from, huh?

Next time you say my name, quote me so I can respond. It's cowardly not to do so.

 

[Crosscheck]

In 2014 the University of Arizona did an experiment to see how fast a virus could travel.

In the study, the researchers placed virus samples on one or two surfaces — such as a doorknob or a tabletop — in an office building, hotel rooms and a health care facility. They used a virus called bacteriophage MS-2, which is harmless to people, but is about the same size and shape as the human norovirus, a highly contagious virus that causes diarrhea and vomiting. In other words, the researchers were able to trace how norovirus might spread through a building using a harmless virus.


Throughout the day, the researchers sampled 60 to 100 surfaces in the buildings, including light switches, bed rails, tabletops, coffee-pot handles, sink tap handles, doorknobs, and phone and computer equipment.
Within 2 to 4 hours, 40 to 60 percent of sampled surfaces in the buildings were contaminated with the virus, said study researcher Charles Gerba, a microbiologist at the University of Arizona.

A virus can move like wildfire in a very short period of time.

The best one can do is to avoid exposure as possible. The next thing is to buff up your immune system.

Four things one can do without having to run to Costco.

* Sleep is big in producing and releasing cytokines which is a protein that targets infection and inflammation. So one should get that > 8hrs sleep plus they are recommending two 30 minute naps a day.


* Diet. Saying goodbye to sugar which is a food source for the so call bad bacteria in our guts. The bad bacteria can kill off the good bacteria in the gut . Eat that broccoli and other veggies and fruit.


* Fasting. Fasting 16-18 hours a day allows the body to get rid of damaged cells. Fasting for 3 days can essentially reset your immune system.


* Stress. Reducing stress is helpful to the immune system. Different ways of doing that with meditation the best.

Good luck.




Office Germs: Viruses Spread Everywhere in Just Hours, Study Shows | Live Science