How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical centre?

[Tashah]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

The fact that we're not leaving Iraq until we're satisfied they're doing things the way we want them done is a clear indication they don't really have a choice.

I disagree. The proverbial writing is on the wall and the US occupation of Iraq is now a short-term proposition. This reality in turn, implies that the internal dynamics of Iraq will ultimately determine its fate.

 

[Cephus]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

I disagree. The proverbial writing is on the wall and the US occupation of Iraq is now a short-term proposition. This reality in turn, implies that the internal dynamics of Iraq will ultimately determine its fate.

They're trying at least and Bush is promising to veto anything that has an kind of limit to how long we can be in Iraq. Until some kind of plan is actually passed, it's all a bunch of political posturing, nothing more.

Besides, even once we ever pull the military out of Iraq, that doesn't mean we won't still have legions of "advisors" and "support staff" keeping an eye on them and whispering in their ear. I can't imagine a time when the US won't be attempting to coerce them into doing what we want, simply so we keep access to their oil.

 

[Tashah]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

Besides, even once we ever pull the military out of Iraq, that doesn't mean we won't still have legions of "advisors" and "support staff" keeping an eye on them and whispering in their ear. I can't imagine a time when the US won't be attempting to coerce them into doing what we want, simply so we keep access to their oil.

You make a good point about continuity-of-influence. This then begs the question... can US influence endure and prevail after Iraq fractures?

 

[Cephus]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

You make a good point about continuity-of-influence. This then begs the question... can US influence endure and prevail after Iraq fractures?

That depends on what happens after the fracture. Will the US simply re-invade and try to put it back together again the way they want it or will they let whatever happens, happen? That depends on who is in power at the time that the fracture comes.

 

[Tashah]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

That depends on what happens after the fracture. Will the US simply re-invade and try to put it back together again the way they want it or will they let whatever happens, happen? That depends on who is in power at the time that the fracture comes.

Due to domestic and international political considerations, I would be astounded if the US intervened post fracture. I believe that Iraq will eventually trifurcate...

• Kurdistan - This region is already autonomous with its own constitution, military force, flag, passports, postage stamps etc. The Kurds have been the strongest supporters of the US presence, and they will continue to curry US favor as a hedge against Turkish intervention and occupation.

• Sunni Iraq - This region will consist of the Sunni triangle and extend west to Jordan and Syria. Sunni Iraq will be a client state of Saudi Arabia.

• Shi'a Iraq - Extends from the Shi'a holy cities south to Basra. Shi'a Iraq will be a client state of Iran.

The fracture of Iraq per the Sunni and Shi'a will be painful. I envision ethnic cleansing operations and large population transfers.

Your thoughts?

 

[Cephus]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

The fracture of Iraq per the Sunni and Shi'a will be painful. I envision ethnic cleansing operations and large population transfers.

I think the difficulty will be one of the reasons it doesn't happen. Just the logistics of moving massive portions of the population from one area to another is a nightmare, especially if everyone is shooting at each other while it's going on. Add to that the fact that there's no fair way to split up the oil fields and you've got a nightmare on your hands. There'll be a huge civil war to be certain, but I really can't see how anyone would want or be happy with a split into 3 Iraqs.

 

[Tashah]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

I think the difficulty will be one of the reasons it doesn't happen. Just the logistics of moving massive portions of the population from one area to another is a nightmare, especially if everyone is shooting at each other while it's going on.

It has already begun to happen. For all practical purposes, the Iraqi Christians have fled the country. Kurds are expelling Arabs from Mosul. Sunni residents are fleeing from Sadr City. Shi'a are leaving the Sunni Triangle. Most Iraqi's of financial means have already left the country. Influential Iraqi's have petitioned the US govt. to allow 100,000 Iraqi citizens permission to enter the United States. It's no secret. Everyone can see what is on the horizon.

Add to that the fact that there's no fair way to split up the oil fields and you've got a nightmare on your hands. There'll be a huge civil war to be certain, but I really can't see how anyone would want or be happy with a split into 3 Iraqs.

Most Iraqi's do not wish to see a fracture. However, the dynamics of religion and tribalism almost guarantee this outcome. Remember also that Iraq (by the way, the word Iraq in Arabic means 'the root of all') is an artificial construct of British colonialism.

 

[bub]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

It's gonna be like in ex-Yougoslavia. Look at Kosovo, ten years after the war, Serbs and Albanese people still hate each others.

If they don't find a common charismatic leader (like Adenauer or Hiro Hito after WWII) they are gonna split up.

Democratic laws who could protect minorities and allow several communities to live together like in Belgium or Switzerland is not in their traditions.

 

[Awesome!]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

What could Sadam have done and what signs pointed to him being the threat?
So you agree we used 9/11 to start a war with Iraq that was completley unrelated?

Everything that Saddam was doing was related to U.S. interests. Saddam is the reason why we are there.

I think Saddam could of started a nuclear program, used chemical weapons directly against U.S. interests or sold them to terrorists, or attacked Israel. It's not like he didn't have the potential to do that, I hope you would agree? I agree that we used 9/11 to be pro-active, which we should of done against Bin Laden. I don't believe our government lied to us. Securing another seller of oil, preferably from a democratic government is a good thing, and at the same time we can fight terrorists, gain valuable R&D learning how to fight them, and hopefully to make the middle east more democratic. It will take some time, however russia, china, vietnam are coming around so I don't think the concept is a bad thing.

 

[Pull My Finger]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

How can we possibly win against an ideology with an immortal figurehead and no geograpical centre and that's virtually invisible becuase it's warriors don't even wear uniforms ?

It is impossible to 'win'. By its very nature, the moment we declare victory is the moment we are most vulnerable.

Peace

 

[Cephus]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

It's gonna be like in ex-Yougoslavia. Look at Kosovo, ten years after the war, Serbs and Albanese people still hate each others.

And they will always hate each other and want to kill each other and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Religious and cultural hatred are really ridiculous that way, most of these people were raised thinking that the other side was absolutely evil, that's not something that you'll solve any time soon.

Democratic laws who could protect minorities and allow several communities to live together like in Belgium or Switzerland is not in their traditions.

No, but neither is letting them live because they're in another 'country' either. Just having Iraq in three pieces isn't going to stop the sectarian violence, it'll just give them all bigger, more concentrated targets.

 

[oldreliable67]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

The fact that we're not leaving Iraq until we're satisfied they're doing things the way we want them done is a clear indication they don't really have a choice.

Thats a pretty strong assertion. What would you offer as evidence to back it up?

 

[Cephus]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

Thats a pretty strong assertion. What would you offer as evidence to back it up?

Bush's refusal to even talk about a withdrawal until we "do the job", whatever he wants to define the job to be this week. He doesn't want to leave until it's a guaranteed U.S. puppet.

 

[oldreliable67]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

Bush's refusal to even talk about a withdrawal until we "do the job", whatever he wants to define the job to be this week. He doesn't want to leave until it's a guaranteed U.S. puppet.

Your opinion is, well, your opinion. As I said earlier, I really was looking for evidence to support your assertion. An opinion hardly qualifies as evidence.

 

[Cephus]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

Your opinion is, well, your opinion. As I said earlier, I really was looking for evidence to support your assertion. An opinion hardly qualifies as evidence.

What, you haven't seen the news that Bush is going to veto any Iraq spending bill that comes with a withdrawal timeline attached?

 

[oldreliable67]

Re: How can we win against an ideology with immortal figurehead & no geograpical cent

What, you haven't seen the news that Bush is going to veto any Iraq spending bill that comes with a withdrawal timeline attached?

Different matter entirely.

The fact that we're not leaving Iraq until we're satisfied they're doing things the way we want them done is a clear indication they don't really have a choice.

...thats the assertion that I'm questioning. Specifically, the "satisfied they're doing things the way we want them done" part.