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12/10/18
Policymakers in Washington are making a case for low-yield nuclear weapons. But these weapons aim to solve a problem based on major and unsubstantiated assumptions about Russian doctrine. Such weapons will not meaningfully affect Russian calculations if the Kremlin fears the existence of their state is at stake. They may, however, reinforce a view in Moscow that the United States seeks superiority across both the nuclear and conventional domains. across both the nuclear and conventional domains. U.S. policymakers worry that were Russia to begin losing a conventional conflict, it might escalate to the use of nuclear weapons to de-escalate and settle the conflict on terms favorable to Moscow. They also argue that Russian aggression against U.S. allies in Europe becomes more likely if the United States does not have low-yield nuclear warheads to symmetrically match Russia’s escalation. Having such weapons would deter the Russians from considering nuclear preemption and strengthen U.S. deterrence. Russian declaratory strategy is not one of “escalate to de-escalate” or nuclear preemption. The most conclusive evidence for a Russian strategy of limited nuclear use is its large arsenal of sub-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia continues to see value in this arsenal, and continued modernization indicates that the Russians see a role for these weapons also in their future arsenal and concepts. Russia clearly states that it would consider using nuclear weapons when “the very existence of the state is under threat.” Although that formulation may be subject to interpretation, it signifies some requirement of aggression against Russia proper.
Will a new U.S. low-yield nuclear warhead sway their calculus in that situation? Put more succinctly, will a new low-yield nuclear warhead convince Russian leaders that the war they are fighting is not worth nuclear escalation, despite their perception that the Russian state is under threat? Russian doctrine and strategy signal there are no nuclear taboos when their existence is threatened. They signal that there will be no crisis stability in a large-scale confrontation with Russia if its vital interests are threatened. The United States will not be able to convince Russia that it should accept fighting America on its own turf with conventional means only. The reason Russia has modernized the world’s largest nuclear arsenal is precisely that a conventional fight with the United States will not be fair and that they will lose. New American low-yield nuclear warheads is a strategic response based on not the most likely, but the most dangerous possible interpretation of Russian strategy, one directly at odds with Russian declaratory nuclear strategy. Russia does not have a doctrine of nuclear preemption, and it remains uncertain about the efficiency of escalating to de-escalate. But Russia will consider using nuclear weapons earlier than America in a conflict when its existence is at stake. New U.S. nuclear weapons will not persuade Russia of the reduced utility of its nuclear weapons.
I wouldn't be surprised if some on the leftwing don't start ranting about Hilary Clinton only giving Russia 20% of our uranium instead of 100% plus giving Putin all our nuclear weapons too.
Here's Why U.S. Tactical Nukes Are a Bad Idea.
US/Russia nuclear weapons aren't going to magically disappear and there are no plans to scale back further on inventories. On the contrary, both nations are in the midst of modernizing their nuclear arsenals. From my point of view, Russia's Novator missile system is in material breach of the INF and has been so since at least 2010. Besides range-violation issues, the Novator mobile launch vehicle is also in INF material breach because it can accommodate the nuclear capable Iskander-M missile. This situation makes verification impossible. Putin's military excursions into Europe since 2008 makes it clear that [forced] territorial expansion is a tenet of current Kremlin geopolitical doctrine. Thus I have few meaningful reservations concerning US tactical nukes. They could very well be that great 'unknown' that alters Putin's current calculus regarding future Russian expansionism on the European continent.
This article claims that the US has already used tactical nuclear weapons, at least once in the battle of Baghdad.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/08/15/vt-nuclear-education-nukes-in-iraq-confirmation/
Nuclear technology has come a long way baby, since 1944.
:lamoVeterans Today is an American propaganda and conspiracy theory website. It describes itself as a "military veterans and foreign affairs journal", but the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) had said "the anti-Israel bent on VT can slide pretty quickly into overt anti-Semitism."[SUP][1][/SUP]
Veterans Today - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Today
Veterans Today is an American propaganda and conspiracy theory website. It describes itself as a "military veterans and foreign affairs journal", but the Southern ...
This article claims that the US has already used tactical nuclear weapons, at least once in the battle of Baghdad.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/08/15/vt-nuclear-education-nukes-in-iraq-confirmation/
Nuclear technology has come a long way baby, since 1944.
I think that there is good reason for maintaining inventories of nuclear weapons. And we should increase their numbers and effectiveness. Reading the second part of your post here (as bourne out by the nose on my face,) that Putin's military excursions into Europe since 2008 makes it clear that [forced] territortial expansion is a tenet of current Kremlin geopolitical doctrine. Thus I have few meaningful reservations concerning US tactical nukes. They could very well be that great 'unknown' that alters putins current calculus regarding future Rushian expansion on the European continent.
and that is why we need a very powerful set of US tactical weapons.
Veterans Today is an American propaganda and conspiracy theory website. It describes itself as a "military veterans and foreign affairs journal", but the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) had said "the anti-Israel bent on VT can slide pretty quickly into overt anti-Semitism."[SUP][1][/SUP]
Veterans Today - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Today
Veterans Today is an American propaganda and conspiracy theory website. It describes itself as a "military veterans and foreign affairs journal", but the Southern ...
I call Bull**** on that one.
1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Div. was cheek-to-jowl with the Republican Guard for 2 days (3-4 Apr 2003) to capture and hold Baghdad Airport. There was plenty of air support - I'm not ruling out the use of thermobarics - but there's no way in hell they could have snuck a Neutron bomb in there without the whole world knowing about it instantly.
A typical response for you Jack, but not a persuasive response. Rather than any discussion of the science or technology or record, you offer only an effective ad hom against VT. I get it.
I haven't read that article at VT in years, but I think it included some photos or reference to the unique differences between photos taken of a nuclear event with conventional film cameras, and photos taken with digital cameras. It turns out there is some sort of pixilation effect, and a nuclear event recorded on digital media has a distinct quality to it. People did take photos of the Battle of the Baghdad Airport, with digital cameras. By that standard a tactical nuke event was recorded.
Veterans Today is an American propaganda and conspiracy theory website. It describes itself as a "military veterans and foreign affairs journal", but the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) had said "the anti-Israel bent on VT can slide pretty quickly into overt anti-Semitism."[SUP][1][/SUP]
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2018/11/12/hitler-was-right-germany-was-stabbed-in-the-back/Which brings us to the title of this article and it’s reference to Hitler’s infamous claim that Germany lost World War One because the Zionist Jews stabbed her in the back. Of course, orthodox history insists this was a great lie, but let me assure you, it was absolutely true and I will explain how the stabbing took place.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2018/10/08/apology-adolf-hitler/Adolf Hitler, himself, in many ways was a tragic figure. He never married. He never had children. And, while he intended to save humankind, instead, he has been vilified with the epithet of being the most hated man—and most evil ruler—in human history (at least here in the West).
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/03/25/exclusive-nuclear-explosion-in-ukriane/We believe that Countryman was covering up Ukraine’s illegal possession of tactical nukes. Perhaps Russia did sabotage this ammunition dump in order to destroy Ukraine’s nukes, if so, it looks like Trump gave Putin the green light on this one.
This article claims that the US has already used tactical nuclear weapons, at least once in the battle of Baghdad.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/08/15/vt-nuclear-education-nukes-in-iraq-confirmation/
Nuclear technology has come a long way baby, since 1944.
That's pretty thin gruel, Thoreau... if it were a Neutron Bomb, there'd be a crap load of radiation poisoning casualties... both fatal and non-fatal, and in both the Iraqi and US forces - and depending on which way the wind was blowing, among Iraqi civilians as well. There wouldn't be any ambiguity about it. I think the damage described is consistent with AGM-114 Hellfire II's armed with a thermobaric warheads.
Thin gruel perhaps, but factual. Very thin gruel if it threatens one's view of the world.
Nuclear technology has advanced considerably since 1944.
Little known tidbit... Russia puts on a good show, but it's acting out of weakness.
Did you know Saudi Arabia spends more on defense than Russia does?
Oh, where have we heard this song before .......... Russia is Nigeria with Snow :roll:
Except it uniquely retains the ability to reduce the US to a pile of smouldering rubble.
Regarding tactical nuclear weapons, the alleged use in Iraq is a joke. But US doctrine is clearly interested in renewing and deploying them physically. For a long time Washington has wanted to use them flexibly, and increasingly incorporate them into offensive force scenarios.
It's not all about Russia. I think the Us would like to use them against ISIS ........ boys and toys and all that.
Oh, where have we heard this song before .......... Russia is Nigeria with Snow :roll:
Except it uniquely retains the ability to reduce the US to a pile of smouldering rubble.
Regarding tactical nuclear weapons, the alleged use in Iraq is a joke. But US doctrine is clearly interested in renewing and deploying them physically. For a long time Washington has wanted to use them flexibly, and increasingly incorporate them into offensive force scenarios.
It's not all about Russia. I think the Us would like to use them against ISIS ........ boys and toys and all that.
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