Grinnell College poll has Biden approval at 34% (1 Viewer)

[gbg3]

I, like most, look more at averages than individual polls. But this particular poll really caught my eye this morning when looking at RCP Biden job approval. It was FAR lower than most. Not remembering much about the Grinnell/Selzer reputation, I went to 538 to see, out of curiosity, how they rated this poll. Well heck, they rated it an A+. That caught my attention. Here is an article about this new poll in case anyone else is interested.

Biden Approval Drops as Majority of Americans Believe Economy Will Worsen in Coming Months

The latest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll (Grinnell-Selzer) shows that nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – the highest number recorded in the history of the poll. And the pessimism about the future of the economy may be weighing down...

www.grinnell.edu

 

[itstony]

Another poll thread brought to you by the people that said polls don't matter from 2016-2020.

 

[gbg3]

Then because I try to be fair and to get the whole picture, I just went into RCP to Trump job approval polls from his years in office. There were 5 instances of Selzer polls for him in those 4 years. His ratings in those 5 polls ranged from 43-48.

So far, there are two Selzer polls for Biden. The first was 37 (Oct 2021) and this is the second, at 34. Again, this particular poll is significantly lower than most for Biden right now. His average approval today is 41.3.

 

[itstony]

Another poll thread brought to you by the people that said polls don't matter from 2016-2020.

Then because I try to be fair and to get the whole picture, I just went into RCP to Trump job approval polls from his years in office. There were 5 instances of Selzer polls for him in those 4 years. His ratings in those 5 polls ranged from 43-48.

So far, there are two Selzer polls for Biden. The first was 37 (Oct 2021) and this is the second, at 34. Again, this particular poll is significantly lower than most for Biden right now. His average approval today is 41.3.

 

[Michael Cole]

People have been conditioned to bitch about the economy. They've also been conditioned to blame the president. That's fair game at this point, regardless of its inaccuracy.

I've never bitched about my economic conditions, and I understand the private sector controls the largest portion of the economy, so others' opinions don't sway my approval of Biden so far.

The Democrats are going to lose the House, but they can keep the Senate. The Republicans surely won't be able to break a filibuster, and I hope AOC calls Joe Manchin and thanks him.

This is a unique time in our history. Biden is a lame duck by choice, imo. He doesn't care about opinion polls, other than what effect they may have on congressional elections. He's concentrating on rebuilding the destruction caused by the last administration, and lo and behold, Biden fixed NATO.

I expect Biden's numbers to remain around 40%. It's who we are now. Here's a historical comparison (scroll down.) Some interesting company who also shared under water approval ratings.

How Popular Is Joe Biden?

Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[gbg3]

Another poll thread brought to you by the people that said polls don't matter from 2016-2020.

I followed polls extremely closely from 2016-2020, before that time period, and since then. So, I'm very clearly not one of "the people" you are trying to attach me to.
Poll averages are sometimes off in a particular election year but in other election years (quite a few, actually), they are quite close to predicting actual outcomes. Between elections, they are used to gauge the temperature of the voters. Betting markets are another gauge. One guy I used to converse with on a political forum felt betting markets were the more accurate at coming close to predicting outcomes. Since those discussions with him, I've followed both polls and Predictit.

Obviously, despite the content of your short comment, here you are in this thread about a "poll". Also, based on the nature of your comment, I'd take a guess you might not like what this one indicates to you - so you are trying to diminish its message (and the messenger). But I guess your curiosity got the best of you because, after all, here you are

 

[trixare4kids]

I, like most, look more at averages than individual polls. But this particular poll really caught my eye this morning when looking at RCP Biden job approval. It was FAR lower than most. Not remembering much about the Grinnell/Selzer reputation, I went to 538 to see, out of curiosity, how they rated this poll. Well heck, they rated it an A+. That caught my attention. Here is an article about this new poll in case anyone else is interested.

Biden Approval Drops as Majority of Americans Believe Economy Will Worsen in Coming Months

The latest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll (Grinnell-Selzer) shows that nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – the highest number recorded in the history of the poll. And the pessimism about the future of the economy may be weighing down...

www.grinnell.edu

I'm surprised Puppet Biden's approval numbers aren't lower.

 

[gbg3]

People have been conditioned to bitch about the economy. They've also been conditioned to blame the president. That's fair game at this point, regardless of its inaccuracy.

I've never bitched about my economic conditions, and I understand the private sector controls the largest portion of the economy, so others' opinions don't sway my approval of Biden so far.

The Democrats are going to lose the House, but they can keep the Senate. The Republicans surely won't be able to break a filibuster, and I hope AOC calls Joe Manchin and thanks him.

This is a unique time in our history. Biden is a lame duck by choice, imo. He doesn't care about opinion polls, other than what effect they may have on congressional elections. He's concentrating on rebuilding the destruction caused by the last administration, and lo and behold, Biden fixed NATO.

I expect Biden's numbers to remain around 40%. It's who we are now. Here's a historical comparison (scroll down.) Some interesting company who also shared under water approval ratings.

How Popular Is Joe Biden?

Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I agree it's quite likely the Ds will lose the House. As far as the Senate, I think there is also a pretty good chance they'll lose it too. I think it is extremely unlikely the Rs could win the Senate with a filibuster proof majority. My current guess is they'll end up with about 53 R Senators.
I think every president cares about polling. Even if they can't serve a future term or choose not to run for a second term, I think it would be very unusual for a person serving as president to not care about the future of their party and the continuation (or not) of the policies they've worked on. No president is unaware of the part of your comment I bolded. Their approval has a direct effect on midterm elections and they well understand that. Plus, I bet most presidents actually want to leave office feeling they and the country thought they did a good job. It's human nature to want to leave a job on good terms, with a good reputation, and feeling as if you provided a benefit.
The second part of your comment I bolded - I agree with that. In our polarized environment, it will be very hard for any president from either party to get positive polling from the other side of the political fence.

 

[VySky]

I, like most, look more at averages than individual polls. But this particular poll really caught my eye this morning when looking at RCP Biden job approval. It was FAR lower than most. Not remembering much about the Grinnell/Selzer reputation, I went to 538 to see, out of curiosity, how they rated this poll. Well heck, they rated it an A+. That caught my attention. Here is an article about this new poll in case anyone else is interested.

Biden Approval Drops as Majority of Americans Believe Economy Will Worsen in Coming Months

The latest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll (Grinnell-Selzer) shows that nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – the highest number recorded in the history of the poll. And the pessimism about the future of the economy may be weighing down...

www.grinnell.edu

Sad

 

[gbg3]

I'm surprised Puppet Biden's approval numbers aren't lower.

He's certainly facing some serious headwinds with his numbers on the economy being where they are! That's a brutal situation heading into an upcoming election.

 

[gbg3]

Many polls tend to be released on Wednesdays and since my comment #3, another must have been added because Biden's average has lowered a bit, to 41.0. I think it's this one which was added, and I think this one provides a lot of interesting detail so I'm off to go look into its specifics.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/Ipsos_Tracking_-_Core_Political_Presidential_Approval_Tracker_21_thru_22_Mar_2022.pdf

 

[Michael Cole]

I agree it's quite likely the Ds will lose the House. As far as the Senate, I think there is also a pretty good chance they'll lose it too. I think it is extremely unlikely the Rs could win the Senate with a filibuster proof majority. My current guess is they'll end up with about 53 R Senators.
I think every president cares about polling. Even if they can't serve a future term or choose not to run for a second term, I think it would be very unusual for a person serving as president to not care about the future of their party and the continuation (or not) of the policies they've worked on. No president is unaware of the part of your comment I bolded. Their approval has a direct effect on midterm elections and they well understand that. Plus, I bet most presidents actually want to leave office feeling they and the country thought they did a good job. It's human nature to want to leave a job on good terms, with a good reputation, and feeling as if you provided a benefit.
The second part of your comment I bolded - I agree with that. In our polarized environment, it will be very hard for any president from either party to get positive polling from the other side of the political fence.

Agreed, but I was referring to his chosen lame duck status. Polls are approached much differently when running for reelection. In that sense, Biden doesn't care.

I haven't studied the Senate races outside of PA, which Fetterman appears primed to win.

MSN

...To make matters worse, a poll recently commissioned by Lamb’s own super PAC showed his main Democratic opponent—John Fetterman—not just beating him in a primary where the more liberal candidate often has more traction; polling showed Fetterman as the better candidate in a general election, against potential GOP nominees like Dr. Mehmet Oz.

That would be a pickup for Democrats. You could be right, but it could stay 50-50 as well.

 

[gbg3]

A few nice charts in the link in comment 11. Not a lot of categories but nice charts of the results of a few categories. Very quick to look over if you have interest.

From that pollster (Ipsos), Biden is at a new low approval (40%) and at a new low among Independents (27%).

 

[gbg3]

Agreed, but I was referring to his chosen lame duck status. Polls are approached much differently when running for reelection. In that sense, Biden doesn't care.

I haven't studied the Senate races outside of PA, which Fetterman appears primed to win.

MSN

...To make matters worse, a poll recently commissioned by Lamb’s own super PAC showed his main Democratic opponent—John Fetterman—not just beating him in a primary where the more liberal candidate often has more traction; polling showed Fetterman as the better candidate in a general election, against potential GOP nominees like Dr. Mehmet Oz.

That would be a pickup for Democrats. You could be right, but it could stay 50-50 as well.

Your link is mostly devoted to the Fetterman/Lamb primary matchup. That's a fine discussion, but as far as the general election, Fetterman's (assuming he's the nominee) opponent is very unlikely to be Oz. From Predictit, just now:

 

[noonereal]

I, like most, look more at averages than individual polls. But this particular poll really caught my eye this morning when looking at RCP Biden job approval. It was FAR lower than most. Not remembering much about the Grinnell/Selzer reputation, I went to 538 to see, out of curiosity, how they rated this poll. Well heck, they rated it an A+. That caught my attention. Here is an article about this new poll in case anyone else is interested.

Biden Approval Drops as Majority of Americans Believe Economy Will Worsen in Coming Months

The latest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll (Grinnell-Selzer) shows that nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – the highest number recorded in the history of the poll. And the pessimism about the future of the economy may be weighing down...

www.grinnell.edu

What is a Grinnell?

 

[Michael Cole]

Your link is mostly devoted to the Fetterman/Lamb primary matchup. That's a fine discussion, but as far as the general election, Fetterman's (assuming he's the nominee) opponent is very unlikely to be Oz. From Predictit, just now:

View attachment 67381623View attachment 67381624View attachment 67381625

Eh. Betting lines are set by the money. Not that they're inaccurate, but the line is not arrived at by political analysis.

Republicans better hope Oz doesn't win. Fetterman will kill him. McCormick is a different story, but Fetterman is small-town Pennsylvania's best friend. Red counties just don't know it yet. Whether Fetterman can convince them of this remains to be seen.

I like him. This is freedom (Fetterman's office):

 

[gbg3]

I haven't studied the Senate races outside of PA, which Fetterman appears primed to win.

Your state has a great Senate race to study and watch!

 

[EdwinWillers]

I, like most, look more at averages than individual polls. But this particular poll really caught my eye this morning when looking at RCP Biden job approval. It was FAR lower than most. Not remembering much about the Grinnell/Selzer reputation, I went to 538 to see, out of curiosity, how they rated this poll. Well heck, they rated it an A+. That caught my attention. Here is an article about this new poll in case anyone else is interested.

Biden Approval Drops as Majority of Americans Believe Economy Will Worsen in Coming Months

The latest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll (Grinnell-Selzer) shows that nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – the highest number recorded in the history of the poll. And the pessimism about the future of the economy may be weighing down...

www.grinnell.edu

That high, huh? I'm shocked.

 

[Michael Cole]

Your state has a great Senate race to study and watch!

View attachment 67381626

There are also polls showing Masto beating Laxalt. I don't like Masto and I don't like the Laxalt family. We have none of the above here. I use it often.

The last Nevada Senator I liked was Dick Bryan. I couldn't stand Reid nor Ensign, but I respected both for keeping nuclear waste out of the state.

We used to hold a lot of power up north, but Vegas has grown so much that it controls the politics now. Masto will win.

 

[itstony]

I followed polls extremely closely from 2016-2020, before that time period, and since then. So, I'm very clearly not one of "the people" you are trying to attach me to.
Poll averages are sometimes off in a particular election year but in other election years (quite a few, actually), they are quite close to predicting actual outcomes. Between elections, they are used to gauge the temperature of the voters. Betting markets are another gauge. One guy I used to converse with on a political forum felt betting markets were the more accurate at coming close to predicting outcomes. Since those discussions with him, I've followed both polls and Predictit.

Obviously, despite the content of your short comment, here you are in this thread about a "poll". Also, based on the nature of your comment, I'd take a guess you might not like what this one indicates to you - so you are trying to diminish its message (and the messenger). But I guess your curiosity got the best of you because, after all, here you are

No, I'm calling out the hypocrisy of conservatives that told us polls didn't matter when the one term loser was tanking but make threads about Biden's numbers. Why don't you show polls that have Biden performing better or Trump's favorability numbers? Because you want to cherry pick polls to support your message. That's all you and the others that post polls about Biden are trying to do and that's OK, just own it.

 

[gbg3]

We have none of the above here. I use it often.

What does this mean? What don't you have? Where's here? And what do you use often?

 

[itstony]

Here's the problem with your "random" poll. Based on their methodology 60% of the calls were made to households in the South and Midwest, both strong republican populations and only 40% to the west and Northeast that lean to the left. Also, 60% of the respondents were white, another predominantly white leaning group. Also, only 27% identify as having incomes over $100K, while well over half are under $75K and 40% under $50K and are the people being hurt the most by the economy. The real kicker is that 68% of these calls were made to random cell phones. That's the problem with random calling polls, there is no verification of respondents but as a person who watched polls you already know all that.

 

[gbg3]

No, I'm calling out the hypocrisy of conservatives that told us polls didn't matter when the one term loser was tanking but make threads about Biden's numbers. Why don't you show polls that have Biden performing better or Trump's favorability numbers? Because you want to cherry pick polls to support your message. That's all you and the others that post polls about Biden are trying to do and that's OK, just own it.

There are some posters on both sides who think all polls are worthless. And there are some posters on both sides who only talk about polls when they are good for their side and bad for the other. And there are posters who just pop into threads to purposely be disruptive when the thread happens to be a bad one for their side.
I fall into none of those three categories. I'll let you decide for yourself whether or not you think you fall into any of those categories.

I'll be happy to show you Trump (and Biden's) favorability numbers, from RCP today. It's kind of you to bring up that topic because, right now, it does indeed support a message I like. I'll both post that info and "own it". Thanks for asking.

Trump is probably happy to see that his favorability numbers at their highest point ever, right now. RCP doesn't include the graph for Biden's "favorability" - probably because he's the current president and, in that case, they graph "job approval" instead. But they do still track current "favorability" for sitting presidents and that chart, from today, is the first chart below. But, since they don't provide the graph for Biden favorability (like they do for Trump), I have also included the current Biden graph for "job approval".

 

[Roadvirus]

32% was Trump's lowest approval rating. Biden's getting very close to breaking that.

 

[gbg3]

Oops sorry, in post #23, I managed to have my cursor in the wrong place and ended up with some of my text above and some of my text below the screenshots. But all of my text is there, albeit awkwardly divided above and below.