Global demand for coal falls in 2016 for second year in a row

[OlNate]

The automated trucks won't do it cheaper.

How do you figure? The cost of the truck being break even (both driver and computer need a truck), the additional cost is the computer that drives it, and any mechanical modifications. Median salary for all truck drivers is $40k/year, and average salary for private fleet drivers is $70k/year. How much do you think the computer will cost, once the price comes down through mass production? Also, how much less to run that truck, when efficiencies around full consumption, brake usage, etc are regulated through the computer? How much less on emergency runs, where the truck can operate around the clock without a team? How much less will need to be spent on insurance / benefits / bonus incentives? Payroll staff and HR support? Payroll taxes? Insurance will likely be way cheaper too - I mean, there's no way they'd let this thing on the road unless it was proven to be perfect...so there would definitely be an insurance break as well.

Dunno, seems a little daunting....from one logistics guy to another.

 

[apdst]

How do you figure? The cost of the truck being break even (both driver and computer need a truck), the additional cost is the computer that drives it, and any mechanical modifications. Median salary for all truck drivers is $40k/year, and average salary for private fleet drivers is $70k/year. How much do you think the computer will cost, once the price comes down through mass production? Also, how much less to run that truck, when efficiencies around full consumption, brake usage, etc are regulated through the computer? How much less on emergency runs, where the truck can operate around the clock without a team? How much less will need to be spent on insurance / benefits / bonus incentives? Payroll staff and HR support? Payroll taxes? Insurance will likely be way cheaper too - I mean, there's no way they'd let this thing on the road unless it was proven to be perfect...so there would definitely be an insurance break as well.

Dunno, seems a little daunting....from one logistics guy to another.

How much does one automated truck cost to buy and maintain?

 

[OlNate]

How much does one automated truck cost to buy and maintain?

When? Today? Or when they are being mass produced? It's just electronics and engine, man, not that much different from what's in those things now...

How much was a plasma TV 10 years ago? How much is it today? And how much would the projected savings inspire the big trucking companies to invest in developing the tech?

How many years until you retire?

 

[JasperL]

I eas referring to constriction of the actual windmill to begin with.

I originally said it here, in post #20...

Do you understand the difference between a 42m blade and a 57m blade, in terms of weight and mass?

The 10,000kw generator weighs over 100, 000 pounds. It takes a half-a-million dollars worth of truck and trailer just to haul it down the road.

This it was the 10,000kw looks like loaded. That's just the generator.

The cost per windmill is irrelevant. What matters is the levelized, lifetime cost per unit of energy produced by that 10,000kw unit versus older, presumably smaller units.

 

[JasperL]

This the base section of the tower. Again, half-a-million dollars worth of truck and trailer. 240 thousand pounds gross weight and 218 feet long.

That's impressive and I appreciate the photos, but, again, the cost of the unit does not matter to anything. :roll:

 

[Rogue Valley]

Solar is the future, not coal. I am troubled by the GOP's inability to lead on alternative energy. This story is just more evidence that leaving the Paris Accord was poorly thought out.

Coal is obsolete as a 21st century energy source and is going the way of the buggy whip.

Miners need better career options and retraining, not false Trump promise that the coal industry will rise again like a phoenix.

 

[longview]

The cost per windmill is irrelevant. What matters is the levelized, lifetime cost per unit of energy produced by that 10,000kw unit versus older, presumably smaller units.

I can assure you that the cost to buy, setup, and maintain one of those monsters is very relevant.
A 10,000 Kw unit will produce about 43,800 Mwh per year, @ 50% rated capacity, which at current wholesale rates is about
$1.13 million dollars per year.
The cost numbers I found gives a range of between 1.3 and 2.2 million per MW, so a 10 MW unit would $13 million,
How much do wind turbines cost? - Windustry
and might last for 25 years. If it earns grosses $1.13 million per year, it would take till year 12 to pay for itself.
Because of maintenance, the payback would likely be longer.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

Europe is moving away from coal, China is moving away from coal, India is moving away from coal.. all are moving to renewables, especially China. So of course coal demand will fall and continue to fall, regardless of price.

This is to be expected. The transporting of coal makes it too expensive and adds to the carbon footprint.

However there are still a lot of products that are made from coal and who knows what new ways of using this resource will be found in the future. It still can be source a of energy where it is plentiful and cheap. Especially as a back up for solar and wind energy in areas such as the NE united states. I have watched the windmills on the mountain where I live stop for days at a time. I have seen it rain and be overcast for over 47 days in PA where I live. Unfortunately a lot of areas of the country are not ideal sources of wind or solar energy. To ignore a valuable resource that is plentiful and cheap in these areas is ignorance plain and simple.

I think we should look into how we can use this valuable resource efficiently where it is plentiful and cheap. They are still cleaning up 3 mile Island and will be for hundreds of years. I think just like we have found safer ways to use nuclear we can also find cleaner ways to use coal. To just say it can't be done is a sign of ignorance.

 

[JasperL]

I can assure you that the cost to buy, setup, and maintain one of those monsters is very relevant.
A 10,000 Kw unit will produce about 43,800 Mwh per year, @ 50% rated capacity, which at current wholesale rates is about
$1.13 million dollars per year.
The cost numbers I found gives a range of between 1.3 and 2.2 million per MW, so a 10 MW unit would $13 million,
How much do wind turbines cost? - Windustry
and might last for 25 years. If it earns grosses $1.13 million per year, it would take till year 12 to pay for itself.
Because of maintenance, the payback would likely be longer.

OK, sure the cost is relevant but only for determining, "the lifetime levelized cost per unit of energy produced."

The cost per windmill is worthless information by itself.

Windmill model A costs $5 million, fully installed.
Windmill model B costs $10 million, fully installed.

Tell me which one to buy!

You can't without also knowing how much energy each produces per day with a given set of weather conditions, the maintenance costs, the expected life of the unit, and more, which is ALL factored into the "lifetime levelized cost per unit of energy produced."

 

[longview]

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Autonomous trucks don't need health insurance, vacations, or sick days. They don't unionize. They can operate safely 24/7. They don't get tired. They don't need AC or refrigerators or stereos. They don't quit because they hate the job. They don't quit because they're separated from their families. They don't need months of training. They might be able to save fuel by drafting off one another ("platooning"). Anything that requires human interaction can be taken care of virtually.

1/3 of the costs of the trucking industry is labor. If you don't think trucking companies will jump on a chance to drastically reduce those costs, then you are in for a nasty surprise.

I was wondering what the liability insurance would be on an Autonomous truck,
before the insurance industry has any good statistics?
The google car has not been accident free, but accidents with an autonomous tractor trailer
would garner a lot more press.
I have never driven a big rig, but am old enough to know what I don't know!
People who do a job, learn aspects about that job that we armchair speculator would never guess about.
Consider that along almost any mile of interstate, you will see long double skid marks.
These are mostly not from a trucker trying to stop too quickly, but rather a loss of pressure in the pneumatic breaks.
The breaks are released with air pressure, if the pressure fails, the breaks are applied.
It is speculation on my part, but if this happens with a heavy load, at high speed, quite a bit of situational
awareness and timely reaction is necessary, far too quick for a virtual takeover.

 

[Visbek]

I can assure you that the cost to buy, setup, and maintain one of those monsters is very relevant.

It also requires context. E.g. a conventional nuclear power plant today puts out more power, but can cost $9 billion and up to build, and costs a lot more to maintain than a wind farm. Decommissioning a nuclear plant when it reaches EOL can cost anywhere from $500 million to $900 million today; pulling down a wind farm isn't free, but it's not going to push $1 billion in a few years.

This is one reason why Lazard's report is useful, it considers the costs of construction and maintenance over the full lifespan of the project, without subsidies, along with how much power it generates. In that context, wind farms are one of the cheapest options available. Note that it doesn't include the cost of pollution or damage to the environment.

https://www.lazard.com/media/438038/levelized-cost-of-energy-v100.pdf

 

[longview]

OK, sure the cost is relevant but only for determining, "the lifetime levelized cost per unit of energy produced."

The cost per windmill is worthless information by itself.

Windmill model A costs $5 million, fully installed.
Windmill model B costs $10 million, fully installed.

Tell me which one to buy!

You can't without also knowing how much energy each produces per day with a given set of weather conditions, the maintenance costs, the expected life of the unit, and more, which is ALL factored into the "lifetime levelized cost per unit of energy produced."

Well the industry average has moved up from 30% rated capacity to 50%,
So a 10,000 Kw turbine at 50% would produce roughly 43,800 Mwh per year, (50 % of capacity).
Half of the 87,600 Mwh if it produced at full power for 24 hours a day, all 365 days of the year.
I frankly think the $13 million would be better spent on solar panels.
Perhaps a deal could be worked out with a new home builder, to equip 1000 new homes with a system like this.
https://www.wholesalesolar.com/1891...-with-solaredge-and-24x-solarworld-345-panels

 

[beefheart]

Coal - It's your grandfather's fuel!

 

[longview]

It also requires context. E.g. a conventional nuclear power plant today puts out more power, but can cost $9 billion and up to build, and costs a lot more to maintain than a wind farm. Decommissioning a nuclear plant when it reaches EOL can cost anywhere from $500 million to $900 million today; pulling down a wind farm isn't free, but it's not going to push $1 billion in a few years.

This is one reason why Lazard's report is useful, it considers the costs of construction and maintenance over the full lifespan of the project, without subsidies, along with how much power it generates. In that context, wind farms are one of the cheapest options available. Note that it doesn't include the cost of pollution or damage to the environment.

https://www.lazard.com/media/438038/levelized-cost-of-energy-v100.pdf

I think I want to take exception to lazard home solar at $138 to $222 per Mwh.
Even looking at this system without the tax credit, and adding $5000 for installation,
https://www.wholesalesolar.com/1891...-with-solaredge-and-24x-solarworld-345-panels
it only comes to $66 per Mwh, if the system last 20 years. and they are expected to last 25 years.

 

[Visbek]

I was wondering what the liability insurance would be on an Autonomous truck,
before the insurance industry has any good statistics?

I don't see why it would be any different than the cost of insuring a driver. It might be less, if the overall safety record is better.

Consider that along almost any mile of interstate, you will see long double skid marks.
These are mostly not from a trucker trying to stop too quickly, but rather a loss of pressure in the pneumatic breaks.
The breaks are released with air pressure, if the pressure fails, the breaks are applied.
It is speculation on my part, but if this happens with a heavy load, at high speed, quite a bit of situational
awareness and timely reaction is necessary, far too quick for a virtual takeover.

An automated truck can be programmed to tirelessly watch dozens of sensors, along with proper reactions to any issues. A computer can certainly react faster than the average human.

Automated trucks won't be perfect, but they will almost certainly be better than human drivers, in almost every situation, almost every time.

 

[longview]

Coal - It's your grandfather's fuel!

I old, and my Grandfather was already using oil!

 

[longview]

I don't see why it would be any different than the cost of insuring a driver. It might be less, if the overall safety record is better.



An automated truck can be programmed to tirelessly watch dozens of sensors, along with proper reactions to any issues. A computer can certainly react faster than the average human.

Automated trucks won't be perfect, but they will almost certainly be better than human drivers, in almost every situation, almost every time.

In theory, in practice Insurance is based on risk, and without much data, the risk is unlimited.
The first few years (assuming no accidents)the rates would be sky high).
As to safety, autonomous systems are programs written by people, and make assumptions.
A liquid load shifts differently than a dry load, Winds can be unpredictable.
Given sufficient time, some unforeseen event will occur, and an accident will result.
Reacting fast enough is not the issue, it is reacting correctly, for the given set of conditions.

 

[apdst]

That's impressive and I appreciate the photos, but, again, the cost of the unit does not matter to anything. :roll:

The cost to fabricate, transport and erect the tower absolutely matters. The wind is free...the wind turbine generator isn't.

 

[apdst]

When? Today? Or when they are being mass produced? It's just electronics and engine, man, not that much different from what's in those things now...

How much was a plasma TV 10 years ago? How much is it today? And how much would the projected savings inspire the big trucking companies to invest in developing the tech?

How many years until you retire?

How much? Simple question.

 

[JasperL]

The cost to fabricate, transport and erect the tower absolutely matters. The wind is free...the wind turbine generator isn't.

You're deliberately missing the point so I'll leave it here. I should have known better.

 

[polgara]

This is a cool video of a job I was on in Plainview Texas summer before last. If I remember right those are 42m blades.

https://youtu.be/wH3lbfCok0Q

Greetings, apdst. :2wave:

Thanks for posting a great video. I was astonished at the size of those blades! :wow: We don't get enough wind where I live, so there are none to be seen here - maybe closer to Lake Erie they might, but I haven't seen any. Ironically we don't get enough constant sunlight to use solar, either! We are **** out of luck, I guess, but we do have several nuclear facilities within an hour's drive in different directions, so that's as good as it gets! :shrug:

 

[OlNate]

How much? Simple question.

So, it's kind of annoying when people perfectly capable of doing research demand others to do it...but because I'm trying to be nice to you today, here's what I was able to find:

Roland Berger study lays out timeline and cost for self-driving trucks | Technology content from Fleet Owner

By the way...how do you feel about the government subsidized bit? Seems kinda messed that you need to pay taxes to have your job replaced by a robot...but, I guess if the business owner can figure out how to do it, that's just smart business...still, seems like a piss off to me......especially when the costs are so low, I expected the incremental costs estimates to be a lot higher at this point in development, even I was surprised...and this article is already a year old!

 

[apdst]

You're deliberately missing the point so I'll leave it here. I should have known better.

I think you got it backwards, my friend.

 

[apdst]

So, it's kind of annoying when people perfectly capable of doing research demand others to do it...but because I'm trying to be nice to you today, here's what I was able to find:

Roland Berger study lays out timeline and cost for self-driving trucks | Technology content from Fleet Owner

By the way...how do you feel about the government subsidized bit? Seems kinda messed that you need to pay taxes to have your job replaced by a robot...but, I guess if the business owner can figure out how to do it, that's just smart business...still, seems like a piss off to me......especially when the costs are so low, I expected the incremental costs estimates to be a lot higher at this point in development, even I was surprised...and this article is already a year old!

It isn't my job to convince me. It's your job to convince me.

23 grand? There's no way that covers the conversions and the whatifs and unknowns. Who the hell's going to even insure this system? All it will take is one fatality that is the fault of the automation technology and there won't be an insurance company anywhere that will touch it. No insurance? The system doesn't get on the road. That makes it absolutely obselete.

The FMCSA requires that all CMV's be insured. Does it piss you off that a single government regulation can flush your dream right down the crapper?

 

[apdst]

Greetings, apdst. :2wave:

Thanks for posting a great video. I was astonished at the size of those blades! :wow: We don't get enough wind where I live, so there are none to be seen here - maybe closer to Lake Erie they might, but I haven't seen any. Ironically we don't get enough constant sunlight to use solar, either! We are **** out of luck, I guess, but we do have several nuclear facilities within an hour's drive in different directions, so that's as good as it gets! :shrug:

Louisiana is one of the least windy places in the world...lol.

My cousin spent fifteen-hundred bucks on a wind turbine system for his hunting camp. It couldn't even maintain the charge on a 12 volt battery.