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Gabrielle Poops Out

LowDown

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Oh Gabrielle, we hardly knew ye!

No sooner does the system make "named storm" than it falls apart.

Normally the first hurricane would have appeared by August 10th and the first major hurricane by Sept 4th. So far no hurricanes.

The peak of the season is on Sept 10th. By Novermber it's pretty much over. Ten more days with no hurricane and it will break the record.
 

ecofarm

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Hurricanes are based on the El Nino cycle.
 

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Apparently our warming oceans have failed to produce the proof of warming oceans--big old superstorms. The history channel already ran out of Hitler footage. Now they are going to run out of new doomsday footage too. Drats!
 

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Apparently our warming oceans have failed to produce the proof of warming oceans--big old superstorms. The history channel already ran out of Hitler footage. Now they are going to run out of new doomsday footage too. Drats!

There is little question the Atlantic is warm this year. Apparently there is a wave of dry air coming through that tears up any storms that try to form. Or at least that's the explanation afforded by hindsight.

The season could still get revved up. There's a chance Gabrielle could come back from the dead, the system that spawned her is still out there. But it's remarkable that we are getting tropical weather like this considering the very confident sounding predictions we've been hearing.
 

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There is little question the Atlantic is warm this year. Apparently there is a wave of dry air coming through that tears up any storms that try to form. Or at least that's the explanation afforded by hindsight.

The season could still get revved up. There's a chance Gabrielle could come back from the dead, the system that spawned her is still out there. But it's remarkable that we are getting tropical weather like this considering the very confident sounding predictions we've been hearing.


It ebbs and flows. I live in the mid-atlantic. We usually get something from most of the hurricanes one way or the other. This has been a super wet/cool summer after a pretty warm late-winter/early spring that had made me fear a scorcher. I think we didn't get any triple digit days and not that many mid to high 90's days compared to most years IIRC. Great for the electric bill/not so great for the garden growing. It feels to me like fall is coming sooner as well based on all those signs in nature like what trees are losing leaves when and stuff like that. I'd be surprised if we get a lot of fall storms this year. I can feel the dryness in the air though as we are typically humid from mid june-mid September.
 

ecofarm

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Seems I have heard the El Nino cycle is influenced by AGW and AGW was supposed to make El Nino stronger and happen more often. You guys just can't keep your story's straight.

The El Nino cycle is a major factor in hurricane development/frequency. That's not disputable.
 

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The El Nino cycle is a major factor in hurricane development/frequency. That's not disputable.

What is disputable is the claim by warmers that EL Nino cycles are more frequent and El Nino itself is stronger due to AGW and that will lead to more and stronger hurricanes.That hypotheses just isn't working out
 

ecofarm

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What is disputable is the claim by warmers that EL Nino cycles are more frequent and El Nino itself is stronger due to AGW and that will lead to more and stronger hurricanes.That hypotheses just isn't working out

El Nino is a 7 year cycle produced by deep cold ocean currents. It is possibly becoming made more erratic, though not significantly so - yet. It impacts weather and seasons around the globe.

Do you understand why 'global warming' was changed to 'climate change'? It's because understanding the change is more about violent swings (and a fundamental shift) in cycles than an overall trend.
 

sawyerloggingon

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El Nino is a 7 year cycle produced by deep cold ocean currents. It is possibly becoming made more erratic, though not significantly so - yet. It impacts weather and seasons around the globe.

Do you understand why 'global warming' was changed to 'climate change'? It's because understanding the change is more about violent swings (and a fundamental shift) in cycles than an overall trend.

The AGW predictions were that El Nino would become more frequent and more aggressive and that just hasn't been the case. And yes I understand why global warming was changed to climate change. It's because warming stopped and on to many global warming events were canceled due to snow and ice storms.:lol:
 

ttwtt78640

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El Nino is a 7 year cycle produced by deep cold ocean currents. It is possibly becoming made more erratic, though not significantly so - yet. It impacts weather and seasons around the globe.

Do you understand why 'global warming' was changed to 'climate change'? It's because understanding the change is more about violent swings (and a fundamental shift) in cycles than an overall trend.

Really? Are you sure it is not about making excuses for massive computer model accuracy failure and much more akin to simply saying that "God works in mysterious ways"?

El Nio and La Nia Years and Intensities

El Nino - Previous El Nino events

El Niño - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

MMC

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Damn.....I thought this might have been some News on Gabby Giffords and her anti gun group.
shrug.gif
Wheres Gabby and that ass now.
dontknow.gif


Well lets hope none hit us this year. We aint got the money.
 

ecofarm

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Really? Are you sure it is not about making excuses for massive computer model accuracy failure and much more akin to simply saying that "God works in mysterious ways"?

El Nio and La Nia Years and Intensities

El Nino - Previous El Nino events

El Niño - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for only seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño "conditions"; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as El Niño "episodes".[6] Similarly, La Niña conditions and episodes are defined for cooling.
El Niño - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ok, not exactly 7 years. 7 years, at most, will mark a change in cycle. The question is not what affect a specific position in the cycle has on weather (globally) and this varies according to weather and micro-climates, but the extent to which the oscillations are the result of global temperature change.

File:Enso-global-temp-anomalies.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Some of global temperature increase is anthropogenic (what percentage?) and some of hurricane development and frequency is the result of position in the El Nino cycle. According to the last study I've seen, we've a couple years before moderate hurricane seasons and some years until a nasty storm (regarding Florida, the outlier northern storm is more difficult to predict).
 

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Weather is not climate.
The climate tomorrow will be hot with a 20% chance of storms. The weather will be the same as always, something it's too damn late to fix our damage to, if that's even true and it probably is, and if we even knew how to. Oops, my bad, reverse that.

The long-term forecast calls for hot and wet, with a high probability of extinction. I hope you had the time of your life?
 
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