FiveThirtyEight says Dems have 75 percent chance of winning House

[JacksinPA]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...t-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning

Democrats have about a 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to the data crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.

The website launched their new House forecast on Thursday, predicting an 80 percent chance that Democrats gain between 14 and 58 seats. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House in November.

FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.
=========================================================
Respected polling & analytics firm 538.com gives the Dems roughly a 75% chance of retaking control of the House in November. Now all the Dems have to hope for is for Donald to keep digging that hole he's gotten himself into.

 

[Hawkeye10]

OK Now! ....It's time to start planning our Impeachment Parties!

 

[Kal'Stang]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...t-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning

Democrats have about a 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to the data crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.

The website launched their new House forecast on Thursday, predicting an 80 percent chance that Democrats gain between 14 and 58 seats. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House in November.

FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.
=========================================================
Respected polling & analytics firm 538.com gives the Dems roughly a 75% chance of retaking control of the House in November. Now all the Dems have to hope for is for Donald to keep digging that hole he's gotten himself into.

In the end, I'll wait and see. Note: I have said before that I'm sure that Democrats will gain in this mid-term election and I still stand by that. But obviously polling data isn't always all that its cracked up to be.

 

[Skeptic Bob]

View attachment 67238220

In the end, I'll wait and see. Note: I have said before that I'm sure that Democrats will gain in this mid-term election and I still stand by that. But obviously polling data isn't always all that its cracked up to be.

The problem is most people read more into these stats than is supposed to be. They act like 75% actually means 100%. Something with a 25% chance of happening is GOING TO HAPPEN 25% of the time.

 

[Kal'Stang]

The problem is most people read more into these stats than is supposed to be. They act like 75% actually means 100%. Something with a 25% chance of happening is GOING TO HAPPEN 25% of the time.

Which is why I don't put much faith in polling predictions of the future. It gives people a false sense of what "should" happen. On election night CNN had Hillary Clinton winning by 98% at the start. IMO it is all those polling predictions that has helped foster some of the hatred that we see today. People were SO DAMN SURE that Hillary was going to win that many just can't accept the fact that she lost and as such will cling to anything that supports that belief.

 

[Roadvirus]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...t-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning

Democrats have about a 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to the data crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.

The website launched their new House forecast on Thursday, predicting an 80 percent chance that Democrats gain between 14 and 58 seats. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House in November.

FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.
=========================================================
Respected polling & analytics firm 538.com gives the Dems roughly a 75% chance of retaking control of the House in November. Now all the Dems have to hope for is for Donald to keep digging that hole he's gotten himself into.

Uh huh...

And what were Hillary's chances of winning again?

 

[trixare4kids]

OK Now! ....It's time to start planning our Impeachment Parties!

Did someone say arty?

What do you want me to bring?

 

[Skeptic Bob]

Which is why I don't put much faith in polling predictions of the future. It gives people a false sense of what "should" happen. On election night CNN had Hillary Clinton winning by 98% at the start. IMO it is all those polling predictions that has helped foster some of the hatred that we see today. People were SO DAMN SURE that Hillary was going to win that many just can't accept the fact that she lost and as such will cling to anything that supports that belief.

I don’t think the CNN poll was scientific but I see your point. I think they also affect voter turn out. If you are absolutely certain your candidate is going to win anyway, why bother standing in line to cast your vote?

Also, what good does the information do? If I know that a particular horse has a 75% chance of winning the next race down at the track there is something I can actually DO with that information. But the same info for an election doesn’t do me any good. Unless I go place a bet on one of those political betting sites.

 

[Kal'Stang]

I don’t think the CNN poll was scientific but I see your point. I think they also affect voter turn out. If you are absolutely certain your candidate is going to win anyway, why bother standing in line to cast your vote?

Also, what good does the information do? If I know that a particular horse has a 75% chance of winning the next race down at the track there is something I can actually DO with that information. But the same info for an election doesn’t do me any good. Unless I go place a bet on one of those political betting sites.

Bold: THIS! More than anything else this is what I think allowed Trump to win. The media pushed for Clinton so hard that they shot themselves in the foot by saying that she WILL win over Trump.

 

[beancounter]

Well, it would be nice to restore some balance to the House.

But remind me again who 538 predicted would win the 2016 election....

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...t-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning

Democrats have about a 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to the data crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.

The website launched their new House forecast on Thursday, predicting an 80 percent chance that Democrats gain between 14 and 58 seats. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House in November.





FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.
=========================================================
Respected polling & analytics firm 538.com gives the Dems roughly a 75% chance of retaking control of the House in November. Now all the Dems have to hope for is for Donald to keep digging that hole he's gotten himself into.

 

[vesper]

Just yesterday I saw a Rassmussen poll that said Trump's support among Blacks has skyrocketed to 39%. If they are motivated to come out and support Republicans that Trump is endorsing this could be some really bad news for Dems.


Quite frankly I don't see a blue wave but rather a red ripple.

 

[Saladin4]

Just yesterday I saw a Rassmussen poll that said Trump's support among Blacks has skyrocketed to 39%. If they are motivated to come out and support Republicans that Trump is endorsing this could be some really bad news for Dems.


Quite frankly I don't see a blue wave but rather a red ripple.

It was 39 Black Americans out of 35 Million that support trump...You read it wrong

 

[MovingPictures]

I don’t think the CNN poll was scientific but I see your point. I think they also affect voter turn out. If you are absolutely certain your candidate is going to win anyway, why bother standing in line to cast your vote?

Also, what good does the information do? If I know that a particular horse has a 75% chance of winning the next race down at the track there is something I can actually DO with that information. But the same info for an election doesn’t do me any good. Unless I go place a bet on one of those political betting sites.

This.

Trump always had Ohio in the bag and Florida was too close for comfort for months, but polls kept showing a razor thin lead for Clinton there, which lead voters in other swing districts to assume "well, she's got Florida, it's over!" and they didn't feel the need to vote, and the rest is history.

 

[thenotorious]

Just yesterday I saw a Rassmussen poll that said Trump's support among Blacks has skyrocketed to 39%. If they are motivated to come out and support Republicans that Trump is endorsing this could be some really bad news for Dems.


Quite frankly I don't see a blue wave but rather a red ripple.

:lamo Now that's some fake news!

 

[Cardinal]

The problem is most people read more into these stats than is supposed to be. They act like 75% actually means 100%. Something with a 25% chance of happening is GOING TO HAPPEN 25% of the time.

Put in a way a non-statistician is more likely to understand, what 538 means to say is that out of 100 elections, Democrats will take back the House in 75 of them. This still leaves 25 elections in which Republicans keep the House.

 

[Bullseye]

Is that the same 538 that said Trump had a 33% of winning the Presidency? :shock:

 

[Phys251]

Bold: THIS! More than anything else this is what I think allowed Trump to win. The media pushed for Clinton so hard that they shot themselves in the foot by saying that she WILL win over Trump.

Facts don't back you up. The press went after both candidates: https://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/

 

[apdst]

Is that the same 538 that said Trump had a 33% of winning the Presidency? :shock:

That's the one...lol

 

[Lord of Planar]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...t-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning

Democrats have about a 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to the data crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.

The website launched their new House forecast on Thursday, predicting an 80 percent chance that Democrats gain between 14 and 58 seats. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House in November.

FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.
=========================================================
Respected polling & analytics firm 538.com gives the Dems roughly a 75% chance of retaking control of the House in November. Now all the Dems have to hope for is for Donald to keep digging that hole he's gotten himself into.

Based on the current media bias, I would agree polling would say this. However, come election time, campaigning will be vigorous on both sides. I see the lies of the left being exposed, and republics keeping congress.

Just my opinion.

Remember...

Trump was suppose to lose.

Bush was suppose to loose...

How often are such things true?

 

[ashurbanipal]

Is that the same 538 that said Trump had a 33% of winning the Presidency? :shock:

Yes, same one. But then, they were saying that when everyone else was putting his chances at about 2%. It's not terribly remarkable when something that has one chance in three of occurring, actually occurs. For example, suppose you tell a friend you're going to a particular bar, and he says that one day out of every three, a gang shows up there and robs everyone. You go anyway, reasoning that you've got a 66% chance of not running into said gang--which is certainly true. But then, you shouldn't be too surprised if you go and the gang appears and robs you.

It'd be reasonable to be surprised if the gang only shows up on two of every hundred days (analogous to the 2% chance of winning most outlets gave Trump). But one in three? No, you shouldn't be surprised.

 

[Bum]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...t-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning

Democrats have about a 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, according to the data crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.

The website launched their new House forecast on Thursday, predicting an 80 percent chance that Democrats gain between 14 and 58 seats. The party needs a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House in November.

FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.
=========================================================
Respected polling & analytics firm 538.com gives the Dems roughly a 75% chance of retaking control of the House in November. Now all the Dems have to hope for is for Donald to keep digging that hole he's gotten himself into.

In view of the polls and expert predictions leading up to the 2016 election, I think I will refrain from placing any bets.

 

[vesper]

:lamo Now that's some fake news!

We shall see in less than 80 days. While you laugh now, I may be laughing last.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Bold: THIS! More than anything else this is what I think allowed Trump to win. The media pushed for Clinton so hard that they shot themselves in the foot by saying that she WILL win over Trump.

Probably true. Might also be why Bush won Florida. When the media declared Gore the winner, and the second time zone in Florida hadn't closed its polls yet, I wonder how many republicans stormed out to vote, and how many democrats decided they didn't need to vote?

People keep harping on the popular vote, and it is likely republicans stayed home as California was a sure win for democrats.

I don't think most people realize how effective the media can be with their deceptions and lies.

 

[thenotorious]

We shall see in less than 80 days. While you laugh now, I may be laughing last.

Terrible accuracy ratings aside, I don't know how anybody in their right mind could actually believe 40% of black people support a racist and his companions.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Terrible accuracy ratings aside, I don't know how anybody in their right mind could actually believe 40% of black people support a racist and his companions.

Labeling a person as a racist doesn't mean they are.

Words have meaning. Please open up a dictionary from time to time.