Expect a Million Deaths

[RabidAlpaca]

He has stated that a 100K American deaths will happen as if it was fact. Since you agree with him, then show proof. Go on.

Trump has already publicly stated that he will have done "a good job" if only 100-200k Americans die. You refuse to show evidence of ANYBODY in this thread or otherwise wanting more Americans to die.

Why do you lie and gaslight like this? You know nobody said that.

 

[maxparrish]

This will go down as the worst public health disaster in US history, with more than 100,000 deaths that were preventable.

Blame will end up being apportioned, but it’s pretty clear it is going to go to the federal government.

I suppose now that the thread op of 1million dead in the US has died a most deserved death, we can change goal posts and move on to another hyperbolic claim - yours.

First, the only estimate I give a farthing of credibility to is the one out of the University of Washington - hospital utilization rates excepted. At the moment the US is on track for slightly less than 100K deaths, with a range of 40K to 160K.

Even if one accepts 160K as inevitable, there isn't any way on God's green earth that 100K was preventable EXCEPT by the most prescient and authoritarian government, and certainly not within the American political system.

This is nothing more than another "Katrina" politicization of a human tragedy caused by nature (and Chinese cultural practices), mitigatable under the best of circumstances but not by another 100K.

 

[calamity]

I suppose now that the thread op of 1million dead in the US has died a most deserved death, we can change goal posts and move on to another hyperbolic claim - yours.

First, the only estimate I give a farthing of credibility to is the one out of the University of Washington - hospital utilization rates excepted. At the moment the US is on track for slightly less than 100K deaths, with a range of 40K to 160K.

Even if one accepts 160K as inevitable, there isn't any way on God's green earth that 100K was preventable EXCEPT by the most prescient and authoritarian government, and certainly not within the American political system.

This is nothing more than another "Katrina" politicization of a human tragedy caused by nature (and Chinese cultural practices), mitigatable under the best of circumstances but not by 100K.

The op was always based on no active measures being taken. That was made clear in the linked quotes. Try reading them before attacking the op.

As for blame--yes, Trump is to blame for all these people dying in the US. Who would you blame--Hillary?

 

[Threegoofs]

Trump has already publicly stated that he will have done "a good job" if only 100-200k Americans die. You refuse to show evidence of ANYBODY in this thread or otherwise wanting more Americans to die.

Why do you lie and gaslight like this? You know nobody said that.

User name checks out.

 

[Mach]

The op was always based on no active measures being taken. That was made clear in the linked quotes. Try reading them before attacking the op.
As for blame--yes, Trump is to blame for all these people dying in the US. Who would you blame--Hillary?

And yet every single day, the U.S. numbers keep climbing closer to that 1M.
Birx and the Surgeon General just told us all states are tracking on the same curves...rural or not. Except a few like CA/WA that took serious action fast and whose populations adhered to it.
They said we're on a worse curve than italy.
In my area, people still aren't taking it seriously thinking that "so few cases!!" means go out and party.
240K is the high end estimates I've seen from experts.

 

[maxparrish]

Dup..

 

[Threegoofs]

I suppose now that the thread op of 1million dead in the US has died a most deserved death, we can change goal posts and move on to another hyperbolic claim - yours.

First, the only estimate I give a farthing of credibility to is the one out of the University of Washington - hospital utilization rates excepted. At the moment the US is on track for slightly less than 100K deaths, with a range of 40K to 160K.

Even if one accepts 160K as inevitable, there isn't any way on God's green earth that 100K was preventable EXCEPT by the most prescient and authoritarian government, and certainly not within the American political system.

This is nothing more than another "Katrina" politicization of a human tragedy caused by nature (and Chinese cultural practices), mitigatable under the best of circumstances but not by another 100K.

The assumptions in that model are that social distancing is strict and happens in all 50 states within days, and continues nationally til the end of May.

Perfect compliance.

And that’s not gonna happen, as we have already seen.

That means more deaths. And those deaths also are through August, so unless there is some sort of miracle, you’ll continue to have fatalities related to COVID for months after that.

So congrats for finding the UW projections. Congrats for realizing they are scientifically sound.

Too bad you can’t understand them.

COVID-19

 

[Jack Hays]

And yet every single day, the U.S. numbers keep climbing closer to that 1M.
Birx and the Surgeon General just told us all states are tracking on the same curves...rural or not. Except a few like CA/WA that took serious action fast and whose populations adhered to it.
They said we're on a worse curve than italy.
In my area, people still aren't taking it seriously thinking that "so few cases!!" means go out and party.
240K is the high end estimates I've seen from experts.

APR. 2
Best-Case And Worst-Case Coronavirus Forecasts Are Very Far Apart

 

[Jack Hays]

The assumptions in that model are that social distancing is strict and happens in all 50 states within days, and continues nationally til the end of May.

Perfect compliance.

And that’s not gonna happen, as we have already seen.

That means more deaths. And those deaths also are through August, so unless there is some sort of miracle, you’ll continue to have fatalities related to COVID for months after that.

So congrats for finding the UW projections. Congrats for realizing they are scientifically sound.

Too bad you can’t understand them.

COVID-19

APR. 2
[h=3]Best-Case And Worst-Case Coronavirus Forecasts Are Very Far Apart[/h]

 

[Mach]

APR. 2
Best-Case And Worst-Case Coronavirus Forecasts Are Very Far Apart

This week’s survey, taken on March 30 and 31, shows that experts expect an average of 263,000 COVID-19-related deaths in 2020, but anywhere between 71,000 and 1.7 million deaths is a reasonable estimate.
Grim.

 

[Threegoofs]

APR. 2
[h=3]Best-Case And Worst-Case Coronavirus Forecasts Are Very Far Apart[/h]

I was responding to UW projections, but your article shows wide variation, which isn’t surprising since we don’t know how many cases we have because of fed failure, and we don’t know how well we will stick to social distancing due to federal and state inaction in many places.

But note that one million is a number included in some of the forecasts, and 100,000 is the low end for almost all of them.

 

[Mach]

But note that one million is a number included in some of the forecasts, and 100,000 is the low end for almost all of them.

What you wrote matches what the article concluded.

This week’s survey, taken on March 30 and 31, shows that experts expect an average of 263,000 COVID-19-related deaths in 2020, but anywhere between 71,000 and 1.7 million deaths is a reasonable estimate.

 

[calamity]

This week’s survey, taken on March 30 and 31, shows that experts expect an average of 263,000 COVID-19-related deaths in 2020, but anywhere between 71,000 and 1.7 million deaths is a reasonable estimate.
Grim.

At current pace, we'll probably remain below 250,000. But, I worry about stupid people. Case in point: I read today that Chicago area bars are opening up as speak easy joints. Church leaders are demanding the right to hold sermons to large crowds. Restless people want to start sporting events back up again. All of this stuff would be disastrous.

 

[maxparrish]

The op was always based on no active measures being taken. That was made clear in the linked quotes. Try reading them before attacking the op.

As for blame--yes, Trump is to blame for all these people dying in the US. Who would you blame--Hillary?

LOL...you're op lede was a lurid and sensationalist headline of "Expect a Million Deaths", followed by quotes of "experts" supporting that nonsensical claim and now you've back-tracked so fast its left burn marks on the rhetorical pavement.

As "proof" you quoted and cited:

"Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we cannot even test for it.

This will be recorded as a major preventable public health disaster. I will try to relate what I learned from a long day of calls about what is happening."

Then, you proceeded to cite how and why a million would die;

"The original sin is Trump’s months long denial and his dismantling of public health and response infrastructure....

The public health infrastructure could have been prepared. What does that mean: nasal swabs, respirators, ventilators, RNA kits to read tests, machines, gloves....remember only weeks before Trump firing justice department officials who weren’t loyal to him.

Still today, people in the CDC are well aware of the fatality estimates at the top of this thread. Yet they are muzzled. They are aware of the shortages. Yet they are muzzled....

I can't believe anyone could be so lame as to "defend" there hyperbole by NOW telling us that what they didn't quote was a disclaimer in their own source material.

Your "failure" to be candid and honest is not a defense, its further proof of you disingenuousness.

But that's okay, I need a bit of humorous relief from the depressing financial downturn and government misreaction caused by such lurid alarmism.

 

[JasperL]

Nobody is advocating any nationwide policy for stopping the spread of the AIDS virus.

I don't know why you guys insist on red herrings as arguments. If you want to argue against nationwide policies for COVID 19, do it. AIDS is a different virus, spread differently, different risks.

BUTWHATABOUTAIDS!!!??? isn't an argument for or against anything the states, cities and feds are doing with regard to CV19. It's just a dumb distraction from the actual issues.

 

[Rexedgar]

“....misreaction,” indeed!

 

[Mach]

At current pace, we'll probably remain below 250,000. But, I worry about stupid people. Case in point: I read today that Chicago area bars are opening up as speak easy joints. Church leaders are demanding the right to hold sermons to large crowds. Restless people want to start sporting events back up again. All of this stuff would be disastrous.

I feel the exact same. They say we're on a worse trajectory than Italy. NY is consistently saying they will overload.
Birx and Surgeon General say nearly all areas in the U.S. are "on the same curve". It think a lot of people are just in denial.

 

[NWRatCon]

Why do you think Trump is using 250,000 now, when just weeks ago it was going to be "in the single digits" ? It's because if it comes in lower, he'll claim credit for "saving" hundreds of thousands, instead of being blamed for the tens of thousands that could have been saved by early, competent, decisive action.

[Bookmark this post so we can refer back to it before the election.]

 

[Sandy Shanks]

Often images can be copied - right click - copy image address, then choose "insert image" from the icons at the top of a reply box, third from far right - it's the icon that looks like a tree I think in a picture frame. If copying an image address, choose "from URL."

Or you can screen shot an image - shift-command-4 on a Mac - and then insert image "from computer" using that same icon.

No, I don't get it. I have tried a number of things, and I don't care to save images on my computer.

I right click on the photo or image, click on "Copy Image" or "Copy Image Location" like I always do with every thing else, go to my post, click on "Insert Image" and it doesn't work. It doesn't say "copy image address.

 

[Sandy Shanks]

Deaths and Mortality

Data are for the U.S.

Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
Life expectancy: 78.6 years
Infant Mortality rate: 5.79 deaths per 1,000 live births

Source: Deaths: Final Data for 2017

FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

The statistics support what I am trying to say.

Not at a 1000 deaths per day and climbing, it is not.

That is true, but the toll is not 1,000 deaths per day far from it. Right now the CDC is reporting 6,786 deaths in the U.S. and that is a three month total.

United States Coronavirus: 265,506 Cases and 6,786 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[dcaraz]

I suppose now that the thread op of 1million dead in the US has died a most deserved death, we can change goal posts and move on to another hyperbolic claim - yours.

First, the only estimate I give a farthing of credibility to is the one out of the University of Washington - hospital utilization rates excepted. At the moment the US is on track for slightly less than 100K deaths, with a range of 40K to 160K.

Even if one accepts 160K as inevitable, there isn't any way on God's green earth that 100K was preventable EXCEPT by the most prescient and authoritarian government, and certainly not within the American political system.

This is nothing more than another "Katrina" politicization of a human tragedy caused by nature (and Chinese cultural practices), mitigatable under the best of circumstances but not by another 100K.

Yours seems a fair assessment. But since we don't know our rate of infection, I think it is guess work to predict a death toll.

1) We have zero clue how many Americans have contracted the coronavirus who currently are asymptomatic.

2) We have far too little testing to understand the percentage who become infected carriers yet show few symptoms and do not require hospitalization.

3) The worst is yet to come thanks to the large numbers of people who failed to self isolate. A few days ago when 16 states had zero stay at home mandates,
the population of these states was more than 60 Million. This is a time bomb thanks to zero action by too many governors.

4) New York state as of today has confirmed over 103,000 cases, with 11% needing ventilators.

5) With too few ventilators or protective masks and garments, we will be unable to handle multiple "hot spots" over the worst weeks.

6) Today New York has over 2900 deaths-- the death count has increased by more than 25% daily this week.

God help us all!

 

[JasperL]

No, I don't get it. I have tried a number of things, and I don't care to save images on my computer.

I right click on the photo or image, click on "Copy Image" or "Copy Image Location" like I always do with every thing else, go to my post, click on "Insert Image" and it doesn't work. It doesn't say "copy image address.

OK, when I right click on an image, I get a bunch of options. One of them is "Copy Image Address" - that's what you want.

When I go to post it here, I click on the picture (3rd from left). It says "Insert Image." Then I have to click on the tab - "From URL" Paste the image address there.

It's better to copy image addresses from the hosting website. Sometimes if you do it from a google image list, it won't work - that link has sometimes a several hundred character string of garbage that I guess allows Google to track something. So do the "copy image address" from the website the image is posted to.

There's a box checked - "retrieve remove file...." Most of the time you'll get an error message - not the right file type or too big. Just uncheck that box and it will work most of the time. Sometimes the process fails and I have no idea why...

 

[maxparrish]

Yours seems a fair assessment. But since we don't know our rate of infection, I think it is guess work to predict a death toll.

1) We have zero clue how many Americans have contracted the coronavirus who currently are asymptomatic.

2) We have far too little testing to understand the percentage who become infected carriers yet show few symptoms and do not require hospitalization.

3) The worst is yet to come thanks to the large numbers of people who failed to self isolate. A few days ago when 16 states had zero stay at home mandates,
the population of these states was more than 60 Million. This is a time bomb thanks to zero action by too many governors.

4) New York state as of today has confirmed over 103,000 cases, with 11% needing ventilators.

5) With too few ventilators or protective masks and garments, we will be unable to handle multiple "hot spots" over the worst weeks.

6) Today New York has over 2900 deaths-- the death count has increased by more than 25% daily this week.

God help us all!

There are plenty of things that we are unsure of, including the size of the population of people who are infected but remain asymptomatic - which if large might actually be a good thing (herd immunity). Moreover, we are not even sure that rural areas (that sixty percent) is likely to ever be of concern as there is definitively a correlation of hot spots to urban density (NY and Seattle).

Moreover, a recent look at the University of Washington model suggests that even its hospitalization rates is way off base too high.

Finally I am well aware of the NY death rate, as well as the death rate for the entire nation. The 'fractional rate' is falling, meaning that the percentage of new cases over old cases is falling and at some point will show a peak and start declining.

I am not convinced that outside of dense and large urban areas that self-isolation is/was necessary.

 

[dcaraz]

View attachment 67275649
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1232058127740174339

The Donald, calling it like he wished it to be. That's what he does. I get that. Been watching him burn bridges with American banks for years.
But why do so many Trump supporters defend his every move and his every utterance regardless how ludicrous?

1) Do most truly agree with Donald's BS?

2) Or do some believe the alternative political party could possibly screw this epidemic up in a worse way?

3) Or perhaps they put up with Trump's insanity because they're card-carrying Republicans--my party right or wrong?

 

[maxparrish]

The assumptions in that model are that social distancing is strict and happens in all 50 states within days, and continues nationally til the end of May.

Perfect compliance.

And that’s not gonna happen, as we have already seen. ...

So congrats for finding the UW projections. Congrats for realizing they are scientifically sound.

Too bad you can’t understand them.

COVID-19

Bullocks. The model has not assumed full and perfect compliance by everyone, it forecasts are based on the amount of actual distancing as measured so far and assumes that the other reluctant states and/or localities will adopt the typical distancing measures next week. And because most of the truly impacted states have already done so (or will do so) the fact that some will not comply won't have a dramatic impact on net national results.

And the model is continually revised to reflect new realities and while the early projections have varied some, they have been in the ball park and increasingly accurate (in fact, spot on to my own trendline computations).

Finally, as we write, they are preparing for a new update with new data, including the distancing measures adopted so far. If they change any future presumption on SD measures, we will know it and their forecast will be modified accordingly.

So not only do I understand the model, I understand you (too well methinks).