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Election Discussion - US State Governors

The Mark

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Does anyone with a bit more knowledge on this know why whenever I look at the GA and FL results for Governor and (in FL) Senator they get narrower?

Is there some chance Gillum wins after conceding?

WTF?

I mean, they haven't called GA yet, and it has Kemp ahead by 62,709 votes.

But in FL, DeSantis is ahead by 46,964 votes.
Or at least the NYTimes site has that:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-governor-elections.html
 
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poweRob

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Does anyone with a bit more knowledge on this know why whenever I look at the GA and FL results for Governor and (in FL) Senator they get narrower?

Is there some chance Gillum wins after conceding?

WTF?

I mean, they haven't called GA yet, and it has Kemp ahead by 62,709 votes.

But in FL, DeSantis is ahead by 46,964 votes.
Or at least the NYTimes site has that:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-governor-elections.html
I believe they are pulling in provisional ballots. Votes that are rarely ever counted at all.
 

The Mark

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I believe they are pulling in provisional ballots. Votes that are rarely ever counted at all.
It's pretty damned close, the almost have to at this point.
 

Jesse Booth

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I believe they are pulling in provisional ballots. Votes that are rarely ever counted at all.
It's pretty damned close, the almost have to at this point.
That's because Kemp has spent years winnowing the undesirables off of Georgia ballots, and now he has a metric ****ton of provisional ballots on his hands.
 

longview

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That's because Kemp has spent years winnowing the undesirables off of Georgia ballots, and now he has a metric ****ton of provisional ballots on his hands.
From what I have read, there are only like 3000 provisional ballots that have yet to be counted.
Even if 100% of the remaining ballots went against Kemp, he would still be above 50%.
Some simple math says it would take 25,624 additional ballots, all not for Kemp, to push him to 50%.
This is based on if Kemp's current count of 1,973,105 were at a perfect 50%, then 100 percent would be double
that number or 3,946,210, that is 25,624 votes above the current tally.
 

Mithros

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I took a look at the county by county numbers. As far as I can tell, there are three counties with significant under-vote issues, Broward, Liberty, and Lafayette. Broward has about 28,000 more than you'd expect, Lafayette has 150, and Liberty has about 50. There are almost certainly more than 25,000 valid but uncounted ballots primarily in a 70%D 30%R county.

But I'm not sure you can make a valid prediction as to what will happen. There's a good chance of this resulting from a scantron failure. As such there are machine failures in which 100% of the excess undervotes could have been taken from one of the candidates. I took a look at three different hypothesis, (100% of the undervote to R, 100% of the undervote to D, and splitting the undervote 70%D 30%R). Each of these yields a vote margin that's consistent with the rest of the state.

It's also possible that there are systematic problems with the FL voting systems which were only excessive in a few counties. Pretty much the only thing we can be sure of now is that "Florida Man" is to blame.
 

poweRob

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I took a look at the county by county numbers. As far as I can tell, there are three counties with significant under-vote issues, Broward, Liberty, and Lafayette. Broward has about 28,000 more than you'd expect, Lafayette has 150, and Liberty has about 50. There are almost certainly more than 25,000 valid but uncounted ballots primarily in a 70%D 30%R county.

But I'm not sure you can make a valid prediction as to what will happen. There's a good chance of this resulting from a scantron failure. As such there are machine failures in which 100% of the excess undervotes could have been taken from one of the candidates. I took a look at three different hypothesis, (100% of the undervote to R, 100% of the undervote to D, and splitting the undervote 70%D 30%R). Each of these yields a vote margin that's consistent with the rest of the state.

It's also possible that there are systematic problems with the FL voting systems which were only excessive in a few counties. Pretty much the only thing we can be sure of now is that "Florida Man" is to blame.
Also how many people were turned away to only vote on provisional ballots that are usually not counted but have to be hand counted now.
 

Mithros

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Also how many people were turned away to only vote on provisional ballots that are usually not counted but have to be hand counted now.
I don't think they know yet.
 

TurtleDude

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Broward county again. Like 2000 but at least the GOP is in control of the DOJ now
 

poweRob

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Golem is probably upset his race-baiting **** didn't work, so he'll give "They cheated" a try.
He conceded gracefully so what's your problem? It's not his fault republicans are getting caught cheating again.
 

Roadvirus

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He conceded gracefully so what's your problem? It's not his fault republicans are getting caught cheating again.
Any proof of cheating? And i don't mean speculation either. HARD proof...you know: evidence.
 

DiAnna

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The dems picked up, what, 7 seats so far? And at least 2 races are heading for recount territory. Not bad.
 
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