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Early Vote Is Not Looking Good At All For Republicans.

Cardinal said:
I really feel like people are reading the ramifications of early voting in a dangerously simplistic way.
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Why do you say that? I think the sheer numbers is a huge advantage for Democrats. We may have 20 million more people vote this election versus 2016. I can't help but think that will help the Democrats tremendously.
 
Cardinal said:
I really feel like people are reading the ramifications of early voting in a dangerously simplistic way.
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I do not agree. Trump's base barely moves from forty percent so why would I think this massive turnout is for trump? If it were wouldn't it show in his approval ratings? Secondly we all know trump after four years and I think the turnout is overwhelmingly against trump. People are pissed at the underhandedness of trump and mitch.
 
bongsaway said:
I do not agree. Trump's base barely moves from forty percent so why would I think this massive turnout is for trump? If it were wouldn't it show in his approval ratings? Secondly we all know trump after four years and I think the turnout is overwhelmingly against trump. People are pissed at the underhandedness of trump and mitch.
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And these stats don't even show New York, a very populated state that we know is going to go massively Democrat.
 
Kerry Won Ohio said:
Why do you say that? I think the sheer numbers is a huge advantage for Democrats. We may have 20 million more people vote this election versus 2016. I can't help but think that will help the Democrats tremendously.
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bongsaway said:
I do not agree. Trump's base barely moves from forty percent so why would I think this massive turnout is for trump? If it were wouldn't it show in his approval ratings? Secondly we all know trump after four years and I think the turnout is overwhelmingly against trump. People are pissed at the underhandedness of trump and mitch.
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Yes, I understand that the conventional wisdom historically favors Democrats on this issue. But I don't think history is a really great guide for this moment. The Republican narrative has suddenly and overwhelming shifted against mail-in ballots, and they have control of the courts to reject those ballots. Republicans will be voting in person overwhelmingly compared to Democrats, and they're going to be doing it later.

Don't get me wrong -- strong Democrat turnout is obviously a very positive thing, but it's a smaller piece of the total story than it would have been in prior elections.
 
Cardinal said:
Yes, I understand that the conventional wisdom historically favors Democrats on this issue. But I don't think history is a really great guide for this moment. The Republican narrative has suddenly and overwhelming shifted against mail-in ballots, and they have control of the courts to reject those ballots. Republicans will be voting in person overwhelmingly compared to Democrats, and they're going to be doing it later.

Don't get me wrong -- strong Democrat turnout is obviously a very positive thing, but it's a smaller piece of the total story than it would have been in prior elections.
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So where is the country if state legislators can decide the election?
We have more ways to negate people's votes than carter has liver pills. It's long overdue for one person one vote nationwide to decide the president. No more antiquated electoral college, no superdelegates, state legislators or supreme courts deciding the election and voice of we the people. All of these 'legal' maneuvers to take away the voice of the people just like in 2016 and 2000.
 
bongsaway said:
So where is the country if state legislators can decide the election?
We have more ways to negate people's votes than carter has liver pills. It's long overdue for one person one vote nationwide to decide the president. No more antiquated electoral college, no superdelegates, state legislators or supreme courts deciding the election and voice of we the people. All of these 'legal' maneuvers to take away the voice of the people just like in 2016 and 2000.
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No argument from me.
 
Cardinal said:
Yes, I understand that the conventional wisdom historically favors Democrats on this issue. But I don't think history is a really great guide for this moment. The Republican narrative has suddenly and overwhelming shifted against mail-in ballots, and they have control of the courts to reject those ballots. Republicans will be voting in person overwhelmingly compared to Democrats, and they're going to be doing it later.

Don't get me wrong -- strong Democrat turnout is obviously a very positive thing, but it's a smaller piece of the total story than it would have been in prior elections.
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As the website shows, 20 million of the 60 million votes cast so far are early, in-person voting. NOT mail-in votes.

It's probable that the early in-person voting total for Democrats is also higher or very close to the Republican early in-person voting total.

Yes, Trump and the courts may steal this election. I get that. All I'm saying is that this early vote total looks really bad right now for Republicans.
 
More info from the website. Mail-in Voting Vs Early In-Person Voting --

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I'm hoping that Republicans fail to show up on Nov.3 because they've already got a 6-3 SCOTUS.
 
Maybe not the early vote, but I believe the stat is that Republican voters are more likely to vote at the polls on the day to vote, so I expect that those numbers are going to come up this week and on next Tuesday for Republicans.
 
Kerry Won Ohio said:
60 million Americans have already voted, which is almost 50% of the TOTAL vote from 2016.

These are the voting statistics so far for 27 million votes, based on party registration.

View attachment 67301410

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So you are going by polls again vs actual counted votes.
did you learn your lesson about this already?

polls are not accurate.
in fact they are highly inaccurate.
I would think after your last trouncing you would give up on this line of logic.
 
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Ikari said:
Maybe not the early vote, but I believe the stat is that Republican voters are more likely to vote at the polls on the day to vote, so I expect that those numbers are going to come up this week and on next Tuesday for Republicans.
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Perhaps. Unless they are totally demoralized and just don't show up. And I think for 10% - 15% of Republican voters, that will be the case.

And I don't buy that Republicans wouldn't take part in early in-person voting. I know they suddenly hate mail-in voting, but they have no issues that I'm aware of with early in-person voting.
 
Kerry Won Ohio said:
Perhaps. Unless they are totally demoralized and just don't show up. And I think for 10% - 15% of Republican voters, that will be the case.

And I don't buy that Republicans wouldn't take part in early in-person voting. I know they suddenly hate mail-in voting, but they have no issues that I'm aware of with early in-person voting.
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I don't know, I'm not sure where I heard that, maybe NPR since I mostly listen to NPR a lot. But apparently those who identify with the right will vote later. So I wouldn't necessarily go out singing and dancing about a huge Biden win just yet.
 
Ikari said:
I don't know, I'm not sure where I heard that, maybe NPR since I mostly listen to NPR a lot. But apparently those who identify with the right will vote later. So I wouldn't necessarily go out singing and dancing about a huge Biden win just yet.
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Definitely no singing and dancing from me. Trump is not going to concede and the next 3 months are going to be very ugly.
 
Kerry Won Ohio said:
Why do you say that? I think the sheer numbers is a huge advantage for Democrats. We may have 20 million more people vote this election versus 2016. I can't help but think that will help the Democrats tremendously.
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Because, as always, where they vote is more important than the fact that they voted. It doesn’t help one iota if this is mostly happening in populous States that are always blue.
 
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Look at it the opposite way. If early voting numbers were really low how nervous would Biden supporters be?
 
ludin said:
So you are going by polls again vs actual counted votes.
did you learn your lesson about this already?

polls are not accurate.
in fact they are highly inaccurate.
I would think after your last trouncing you would give up on this line of logic.
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Even your lame Repug insults and put-downs don't make any sense.

How is this a "poll"??? This represents how people are ACTUALLY VOTING.

This is more analogous to the actual vote count than to polling. So you just made a fool of yourself yet again.

I guess you never get tired of me correcting you, but I'm happy to oblige.
 
CaughtInThe said:
Look at it the opposite way. If early voting numbers were really low how nervous would Biden supporters be?
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A metric ****-ton more nervous. As I've said, high early voter turnout can only be a positive factor, but it's just one factor among multiple important factors.
 
Kerry Won Ohio said:
Even your lame Repug insults and put-downs don't make any sense.

How is this a "poll"??? This represents how people are ACTUALLY VOTING.

This is more analogous to the actual vote count than to polling. So you just made a fool of yourself yet again.

I guess you never get tired of me correcting you, but I'm happy to oblige.
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The only way we know how people are voting is by counting votes not polls.
not at all. they haven't counted any votes. they are polling the data and making assumptions.

they have not counted 1 vote yet.
so yes you have been corrected yet again.
 
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