I just enjoyed the irony of cooling in Greta-land.
Greta’s Own Sweden Has Been Cooling In July Since 1997! Same Results In Finland And Ireland
By P Gosselin on 22. August 2020
Source: JMA here.In Greta’s Sweden, the month of July has been seeing cooling since 1997. Strange warming climate crisis this is.
Fair enough. If one lacks even the basic understanding of the topic they are debating against it is probably really easy to find humor in the strangest things. Might even make one think they are "clever" when they post things that show nothing but their own general lack of understanding of the technical details.
I'd ask you to provide us with an R^2 and an F-test on those regressions but I doubt you'd have a clue what that would tell you. Or even the implications of difficulties with time series data.
Tsk tsk. "Humorless and pedantic is no way to go through life, son." --with apologies to Dean Vernon Wormer, Faber College
Well, at least I understand the topic I'm talking about.
Do you dispute the data?
Like I said, you'd have no idea what those two values will tell you about the curves.
Tsk, tsk tsk.
If someone shows you a graph and you think you see a trend, it really only has value if you can show it is statistically significant. (But, as in SO MANY aspects of these technical topics you seem to lack even the basic understanding necessary to draw simple conclusions). ANyone whose ever worked with data knows sometimes that which simply looks like it has a slope may not rise to the level of actual statistical signficance. This is made even more difficult with time series data.
So you go back in there and figure out what the p-value is on the regression or the p-value on the t-test of the slope and throw in the R^2 as well.
Or just "look at the pretty pictures" and just take whatever your denialist friends tell you.
Tsk tsk. "Humorless and pedantic is no way to go through life, son." --with apologies to Dean Vernon Wormer, Faber College
Having fun yet?
The "pretty pictures" require no further explanation.
Do you dispute the data?
That is 100% NOT how data works. Not in the slightest.
It is EXTREMELY common for someone to look at a graph and think they see a slope up or down. The real value comes in comparing that regression to simply fitting the mean of the data. This is called an F-test on the regression. Alternately one can do a t-test on the slope. It is more complex with time-series data. But the key is just looking at a picture and seeing a slope is NOT sufficient.
In order to tell us if the slope is likely REAL requires something like an F-test on the regression or a t-test.
This is really, really basic level stats.
Now it could be that P. Gosselin has that data, he just didn't post it on the post you cited. So, in effect, he has said NOTHING about the reality of those "slopes" you think you see there.
You aren't even bothering to verify the things you think you see, are you?
Basic high school statistics here, Jack. Super basic.
Why does your source use data from Toyota Climate Center instead of SMHI, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute? Especially since that Toyota Climate Center only have data from 13 weather stations in Sweden and not the average for entire Sweden. Also why does source only use 6 of those 13 weather stations in their graph. Also why use the warm year of 1997 as starting year? Also why does the graph in your source miss some data point. Also why focus on only one month?
That the likely answers to those question is that your source wants to false claim that Sweden is cooling while the reality is that Sweden is warming more than the global average.
"In Sweden, temperatures are rising even faster than the average. Since 1860, the temperature in Sweden has increased by 1.5C, while the global average increase is roughly 1 degree.
"We clearly see a trend that it is getting warmer in Sweden, and this is most noticeable during the winter," Gustav Strandberg, a climate scientist at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), said.
The reason that Sweden’s temperature increase is outpacing the rest of the Earth is its proximity to the Arctic. As the Arctic ice retreats, Sweden gets warmer.
"The ice is cold and lies like a cover over the sea’s surface. Just a bit of warming can cause the ice to melt, which in turn leads to the water heating up the air further," Strandberg said."
https://www.thelocal.se/20190208/swedens-temperature-increase-outpaces-global-average
Yawn. Looks like someone's in denial. "Who are you going to believe? Me, or your own two eyes?" --Chico Marx
OK, Jack, I've wasted some time to make an actual point for you. I generated this graph and ran it through R for statistics.
Do you see the line that looks like a "slope" pointing downwards? THAT ISN'T A REAL TREND.
But it looks like a real slope downward, right? Well see that F-test value up there and specifically the "p-value". This is, at its most basic a test of if this regression is statistically significant.
The p-value is VERY HIGH meaning it is NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT.. It means that there's really no value to explaining the data using the LINE vs just the MEAN OF THE DATA.
This happens, statistically, through random chance. Sometimes it looks like a regression is real, but you don't really know until you run the F-test.
Now, I'm not saying that Gosselin's data is similarly NOT a real trend, I'm just saying that unless you can show me the statistical analysis of the regression I won't accept just by looking at the pretty picture.
Again, this is basic statistics. Stuff they teach freshmen. It is the essence of what it means to understand science.
You think you're a "skeptic"? Your skepticism has no value if you don't know how to assess the data even at a basic level.
Yawn. Denial. Tinfoil hat stuff.
Yawn. Denial. Tinfoil hat stuff.
OK, this is just a strange post. Because this is literally Statistics 101. They teach this to kids in high school. It's part of inferential statistics.
I will readily agree that time-series data is often highly autocorrelated so the more simple views of merely doing f-tests on the raw data may miss a few points, but in the end the only figure of merit related to a graph is the authors' analysis of the statistical significance of the regression.
Inferential statistics is literally the CORNERSTONE of how we interpret ANY graph of data.
If one doesn't even know the basics of science or how data is interpretted one can and will be led down the garden path. People can play you because you don't know that sometimes the "appearance" of a slope has no real meaning. You have to test the regression.
This is basic science.
There are Creationists out there with more understanding of the basics of science than this.
Yawn. The desperation of your denial is quite striking.
I know you don't understand what I'm saying here but you are arguing not against me but against science in general.
(And, no, I'm not denying anything. If you actually READ Post #65 you'll see that I clearly state that Gosselin could be RIGHT. He could be seeing a real trend. I just need to see some indication of statistical significance.)
No, you're desperately trying to deny plain evidence.
There's simply no mystery or deeper truth to a least squares regression line.
I clearly stated now a couple times the graph you posted of the temperature trend could be real, but I cannot say it is until I see the statistical significance. (And neither can you! That's how science works)
Do you actually not believe me about F-tests, t-Tests, regression statistics and inferential statistics? Really? Do you think I just made up the topic for the graph I produced? Do you honestly think I just made up F-tests and t-tests?
You can verify everything I said.
Here's a great place to start:
F-test for Regression
The F-Test for Regression Analysis | by Sachin Date | Towards Data Science
Regression Slope Test
T-Test and F-Test: Fundamentals of Test Statistics - Magoosh Statistics Blog
Sorry. No straw men or deflections allowed.
I'm 70 YOA and happily retired.
You admitted you have not real scientific training apart from some intro classes.
Oh, don't worry about Jack. Painting himself as the victim of some imaginary slight is his usual modus operandi when he's losing the argument. It's a typical diversionary tactic.
[h=3]The author is the Chairman of the Racah Center for Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an IBM Einstein Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies.[/h][h=2]How Climate Change Pseudoscience Became Publicly Accepted[/h]
[h=2]Solar Debunking Arguments are Defunct[/h]
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