Democrats flip House seat in Alabama

[Absentglare]

There is hope.

In the realm of politics, there’s a bias toward a 50/50 split where “free thinking” moderates will gravitate toward the underdog.

What we see in special election after special election is that the people voting aren’t just from the realm of politics, I think the GOP has awoken a sleeping power in the US, folks who would, a generation or two ago, stayed home will show up and tip the scales in favor of sanity.

May freedom continue to prevail.

 

[BirdinHand]

We've got to stop getting excited over special elections where 5000 people vote and the total turnout is about 1/3 of what you are going to get during the general election.

it is no more an indicator than an individual poll of 1000 people.

Well, you know, except a democrat is now in that seat.

 

[BirdinHand]

A state house seat. I think the House is 75 republican, 38 democrat. Still a very long way to go to tip the balance in the State House.

How do you eat an elephant?


Answer: one bite at a time.

Saying that we shouldn't hype up every little thing that looks good for Biden isn't defeatism.

Biden and POTUS isn’t the only election that matters. Democrats need to take every seat in every race that they can.

I'm not going to ever acknowledge it matters.

Nothing matters except for November.

That’s bullshit. Every election matters. Every seat in every legislative body that a democrat can win instead of a Republican is one step closer to kicking the christian right wing zealots out of government at every.single.level.

 

[Tettsuo]

The winner last night got over 2000 fewer votes than she did when she lost in 2022.

Isn't that a very bad sign for Republicans? That would mean their turnout was seriously down, no?

 

[Taylor]

1 down, 25 to go.

 

[samiam5211]

Isn't that a very bad sign for Republicans? That would mean their turnout was seriously down, no?

Turnout was low for everyone.

I doubt most people even realized there was an election.

It isn't something we should consider predictive.

 

[samiam5211]

How do you eat an elephant?


Answer: one bite at a time.

Biden and POTUS isn’t the only election that matters. Democrats need to take every seat in every race that they can.



That’s bullshit. Every election matters. Every seat in every legislative body that a democrat can win instead of a Republican is one step closer to kicking the christian right wing zealots out of government at every.single.level.

The Alabama state house isn't ever going to be close.

There probably isn't a less meaningful election anywhere in the country. A local constable is going to have more influence than a democrat in the Alabama state legislature.

 

[Taylor]

It swung more than twenty points from Trump's victory.

Not really. They went through redistricting in 2022. Apples and Oranges.

 

[samiam5211]

Not really. They went through redistricting in 2022. Apples and Oranges.

I believe the district is the same today as it was during the 2022 election.

 

[MTAtech]

We've got to stop getting excited over special elections where 5000 people vote and the total turnout is about 1/3 of what you are going to get during the general election.

it is no more an indicator than an individual poll of 1000 people.

We had a special House election in my district where Dems flipped the seat formerly held by George Santos. 169,567 votes were cast. That's about 2/3 the votes in the general November House race.

 

[BirdinHand]

The Alabama state house isn't ever going to be close.

There probably isn't a less meaningful election anywhere in the country. A local constable is going to have more influence than a democrat in the Alabama state legislature.

We shall see.

Progress and change doesn't happen overnight.

Play the long game.

Religious Landscape Study

Explore the geographic distribution and demographics of America's major religious groups.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[samiam5211]

We had a special House election in my district where Dems flipped the seat formerly held by George Santos. 169,567 votes were cast. That's about 2/3 the votes in the general November House race.

If we were talking about an Alabama US house district flipping, then it would be a much bigger deal than the state house seat we are all excited about.

NY3 flipping isn't a big deal, because it has a history of flipping and favors crazy more than party. Peter King and George Santos being prime examples. It isn't surprising that it flips after the Santos debacle. Alsom that district almost always votes for the dem president, and has never went for Trump.

 

[samiam5211]

We shall see.

Progress and change doesn't happen overnight.

Play the long game.

Religious Landscape Study

Explore the geographic distribution and demographics of America's major religious groups.

www.pewresearch.org

Oh yea, i'm all for that. The Huntsville area is prime for being permanently flipped blue. I'm not against hoping for that.

The long game is one thing, trying to gain hope for November based on an election didn't have many more votes cast than you'd see for homecoming queen at a large high school is something different.

 

[BirdinHand]

Oh yea, i'm all for that. The Huntsville area is prime for being permanently flipped blue. I'm not against hoping for that.

The long game is one thing, trying to gain hope for November based on an election didn't have many more votes cast than you'd see for homecoming queen at a large high school is something different.

Yeah, this has nothing to do with Alabama changing for November.

But looking at the demographics in Alabama...there IS hope for the long game.

 

[samiam5211]

Yeah, this has nothing to do with Alabama changing for November.

But looking at the demographics in Alabama...there IS hope for the long game.

There are plenty of young people in MAGA, but it is primary a boomer/elder genX movement. They aren't growing their base, it is dying out. Just look at the demographics that showed up at the border for their big God's Army thing they had a couple of months ago. Only a few dozen people showed up, but pretty much all of them were 50+

The entire conservative movement in its current form will be dead soon. There will be a new conservatism that is where the RHINOs live now that emerges.

Alabama may never turn blue, but at some point "red" is going to be what purple is today.

 

[BirdinHand]

There are plenty of young people in MAGA, but it is primary a boomer/elder genX movement. They aren't growing their base, it is dying out. Just look at the demographics that showed up at the border for their big God's Army thing they had a couple of months ago. Only a few dozen people showed up, but pretty much all of them were 50+

The entire conservative movement in its current form will be dead soon. There will be a new conservatism that is where the RHINOs live now that emerges.

Alabama may never turn blue, but at some point "red" is going to be what purple is today.

Most of the deep red will trend more purple as the Grestest/Silent/Boomer/Older Gen X fade out.

Millenial and younger are much further to the left (majority wise) and aren’t trending much more conservative as they age like prior generations have (likely because of financial/economic reasons)

 

[samiam5211]

Most of the deep red will trend more purple as the Grestest/Silent/Boomer/Older Gen X fade out.

Millenial and younger are much further to the left (majority wise) and aren’t trending much more conservative as they age like prior generations have.

It is going to be interesting to see where Florida is in 40 years. It will be the last bastion of that idea, since it is American's retirement home, and DeSantis declaring a war on literacy impacting the education of the natives, is going to be a wild mix.

 

[BirdinHand]

It is going to be interesting to see where Florida is in 40 years. It will be the last bastion of that idea, since it is American's retirement home, and DeSantis declaring a war on literacy impacting the education of the natives, is going to be a wild mix.

And then add in weather, hurricanes, etc....

 

[LucyLou]

Dems have been winning for 6 years. Yes, this is bellwether. Crooked Donald best get girded for the November bloodbath aimed straight at him.

We vote, we win.

 

[LucyLou]

Mary Lands campaigned on Abortion Rights and IVF. One of many I expect. Good to see this.

Marilyn Lands, Democrat who ran on reproductive rights, flips Alabama House seat • Alabama Reflector

Lands campaigned on reproductive rights. The victory is the Democrats' first net gain in either legislative chamber since 2002.

alabamareflector.com

Don't forget WHY there was a special election in the first place.

Because the Republican who had the seat had to quit, because he was doing VOTER FRAUD!!!

These losers...

 

[dseag2]

We should be underplaying everything that looks good for Biden.

We need democrat voters to be scared to death on election day.

Overconfidence is a big part of what cost us 2016.

I agree with you, but I don't think anyone in the Democratic party is considering November a slam dunk, even if Trump gets convicted in April. Biden has been on the campaign trail, and Biden and Harris were just in NC touting healthcare. The DNC will also handily outspend the RNC on advertising because they have lots more funds that haven't gone toward paying their candidate's legal bills.

Again, I agree that none of us should be complacent.

 

[Superfly]

It's worth noting that the Republican, Teddy Powell, was not some kind of wild-eyed MAGA candidate who was doomed from the start in a swing district.
He's a relatively moderate, technocratic guy.
But the Democrat, Marilyn Lands, ran exclusively on IVF and reproductive rights and just killed him.

^^ This. I live in Huntsville, but not in her district.

 

[Superfly]

I'm not going to ever acknowledge it matters.

Nothing matters except for November.

So you don’t think down-ballot races matter?

 

[Bonnot]

I hear you. Except, the problem with the national election, this year (as it was in 2020 and 2016), is the Republican party is not putting forth a normal candidate, but actually someone that is a threat to American democracy. This is not a normal election, with normal stakes. People are less forgiving of someone wanting to vote for Trump to lower taxes, or inflation or whatever because that is not what he is about. If the Republicans really wanted to do those things, they would not have nominated Trump. He would have been unacceptable to the party.

You are allowed to have other positions based upon your beliefs, but all of us are less tolerant of you (the Republican party) putting forth candidates that are contrary to core American beliefs, such as continuation of democracy itself. When you put up someone like Trump as the party standard bearer, you kind of lose the moral high ground on political beliefs.

So you complain about the intolerance of Democrats, let me flip that, which is the intolerance of Republicans to look honestly at the candidate they have put forth. They want that candidate respected; normalized. But by no objective measure is Trump a normal candidate or one that actually represents core American values. He is not qualified for the job. The Republican party should have a little more self-respect (put forth serious candidates) before they expect respect from others (respect of policy differences).

I did not like George W. Bush, but I long for the good ole days of Bush vs. Gore, when the actual differences were about policy and the right approach to make America greater. We are not in that spot today.

W Bush gave way to Trump. W Bush was just as awful as Trump is. Lets not forget, he installed Alito who is one of the biggest piece of shit judges on SCOTUS, which is saying a lot given who is there.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Was this the redistricting year, where the SCOTUS made them create a new, majority-black district? Or was that last cycle?