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Declassified Key Judgements of the NIE

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and
operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the
struggle elsewhere.
• The Iraq conflict has become the “cause celebre” for jihadists, breeding a deep
resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for
the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves,
and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry
on the fight.
We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its
vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.
• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1)
Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western
domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the
Iraq “jihad;” (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and
political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US
sentiment among most Muslims—all of which jihadists exploit.
Seems to be quite consistent with what the NYtimes, Washington post and so on reported.
 
jfuh said:
Seems to be quite consistent with what the NYtimes, Washington post and so on reported.

Ya but they left out the parts about having a percieved victory in Iraq encouraging the jihadists to carry out attacks elsewhere and that if we win the war in Iraq it will spell a death nell for the Jihadists.
 
Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Because you people want to cut and run, President Talabani said today that pulling out of Iraq would be a disaster for his country, and Negroponte says if we succeed in Iraq that it could spell a deathblow for the terrorists in complete contrasts to the Democrats assertion that our presence in Iraq is hurting our efforts in the war on terror.

"...if we succeed in Iraq..."

That is a big "if" that has yet to happen. From what I read, all the good points in the report are based on conditions.

Virtually all assessments of the current situation were bad news. The report's few positive notes were couched in conditional terms, depending on successful completion of difficult tasks ahead for the U.S. and its allies. In one example, analysts concluded that more responsive political systems in Muslim nations could erode support for jihadist extremists.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060926/ap_on_go_co/terrorism_intelligence;_ylt=Ar7wQffbdf4pynAEeQDtTChqP0AC;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl




Also, why has Bush only allowed parts of the report to be made public? Why have the Republicans denied a House vote to debate the report?

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., sought a rare secret session of the House to discuss the report's classified findings. Her request was rejected — 217-171 — on a nearly straight party-line vote. In an interview, she said the intelligence estimate "is not a corroboration of what the president is saying. It is a contradiction of what the president is saying.

Same source.
 
I just gotta wonder how possible to get those people to accept democracy by the edge of a sword.

Wouldn't it be nice if they all just said OK and we could build a Starbucks and Applebee's in Bagdad?
 
Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Ya but they left out the parts about having a percieved victory in Iraq encouraging the jihadists to carry out attacks elsewhere and that if we win the war in Iraq it will spell a death nell for the Jihadists.


dont ya just love when they leave out those pesky, insignificant, minor details.

;)
 
Captain America said:
I just gotta wonder how possible to get those people to accept democracy by the edge of a sword.

Wouldn't it be nice if they all just said OK and we could build a Starbucks and Applebee's in Bagdad?

democracy doesnt have to be spread by the edge of a sword.

dont you think if they could just get a SMALL TASTE of what we have, they would be all over it?

the ones with teh sword are those that are affraid of democracy, because it reduces their power.

and Im asking more than im telling. you are one of the few left leaners here that shows some sense of bi partisanship.
 
ProudAmerican said:
democracy doesnt have to be spread by the edge of a sword.

dont you think if they could just get a SMALL TASTE of what we have, they would be all over it?

the ones with teh sword are those that are affraid of democracy, because it reduces their power.

and Im asking more than im telling. you are one of the few left leaners here that shows some sense of bi partisanship.

Thay have gotten a small taste and it is leading to a civil war.
 
Alex said:
Thay have gotten a small taste and it is leading to a civil war.


Talabani: Iraq won't have civil war

By BARRY SCHWEID AP Diplomatic Writer
© 2006 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Iraqi President Jalal Talabani disputed on Tuesday reports of growing violence in his country and declared, "I can assure you there will be no civil war."

At a news conference, Talabani also leveled a warning to Iraq's neighbors that interference will not be tolerated.

Talabani projected a vastly different account of the security situation. He said it had improved since last year when many areas were in the control of terrorists.

Last year, he said by way of example, there were 10 to 14 car bombings a day in Baghdad and this year one to four.

Most of the fighting is centered in Baghdad, and since most media are in the capital they provide a slanted picture of Iraq's situation, Talabani said.

"The media is only focusing on the negative and exaggerating it," he said.

"We cannot tolerate more interference of our neighbors," he said at another point, with evident anger.

Talabani also denounced as "a big lie" a report last week by Manfred Nowak, the U.N. special investigator on torture, that torture in Iraq may be worse than it was under Saddam Hussein, with militias, terror groups and government forces disregarding rules on the humane treatment of prisoners.

Talabani said Iraq's constitution provides human-rights safeguards.
On Capitol Hill, meanwhile, Talabani told a group of six senators that setting a deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops would be a tragedy for Iraq as it works to build its military and police forces, Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., said in a conference call with reporters.

Pulling out now would "encourage the militias and the enemies of a free and independent and unified Iraq," Lieberman quoted Talabani as saying.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...d/4216141.html


and they havent even BEGUN to taste democracy yet.

if the left in this country has their way, they never will.
 
Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Ya it's an "if" but it is also a reafirmation of the President's stay the course policy rather than the Dems cut and run one.

The current president and congress have had plenty of time to turn that "if" into reality and they have failed. Time for someone else to get a chance.
 
ProudAmerican said:
Talabani: Iraq won't have civil war

By BARRY SCHWEID AP Diplomatic Writer
© 2006 The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Iraqi President Jalal Talabani disputed on Tuesday reports of growing violence in his country and declared, "I can assure you there will be no civil war."

At a news conference, Talabani also leveled a warning to Iraq's neighbors that interference will not be tolerated.

Talabani projected a vastly different account of the security situation. He said it had improved since last year when many areas were in the control of terrorists.

Last year, he said by way of example, there were 10 to 14 car bombings a day in Baghdad and this year one to four.

Most of the fighting is centered in Baghdad, and since most media are in the capital they provide a slanted picture of Iraq's situation, Talabani said.

"The media is only focusing on the negative and exaggerating it," he said.

"We cannot tolerate more interference of our neighbors," he said at another point, with evident anger.

Talabani also denounced as "a big lie" a report last week by Manfred Nowak, the U.N. special investigator on torture, that torture in Iraq may be worse than it was under Saddam Hussein, with militias, terror groups and government forces disregarding rules on the humane treatment of prisoners.

Talabani said Iraq's constitution provides human-rights safeguards.
On Capitol Hill, meanwhile, Talabani told a group of six senators that setting a deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops would be a tragedy for Iraq as it works to build its military and police forces, Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., said in a conference call with reporters.

Pulling out now would "encourage the militias and the enemies of a free and independent and unified Iraq," Lieberman quoted Talabani as saying.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...d/4216141.html


and they havent even BEGUN to taste democracy yet.

if the left in this country has their way, they never will.

That would be deniel. The country IS in a civil war already. What else do you call a section of people repeatedly killing other people in the same country?
 
Alex said:
The current president and congress have had plenty of time to turn that "if" into reality and he has failed. Time for someone else to get a chance.

The Dems don't want a chance to stabilize Iraq they want a chance to cut and run as soon as they regain power which according to Iraqi President Talabani would be an unmitigated disaster for his country:

On Capitol Hill, meanwhile, Talabani told a group of six senators that setting a deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops would be a tragedy for Iraq as it works to build its military and police forces, Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., said in a conference call with reporters.

Pulling out now would "encourage the militias and the enemies of a free and independent and unified Iraq," Lieberman quoted Talabani as saying.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4216141.html
 
ProudAmerican said:
democracy doesnt have to be spread by the edge of a sword.

dont you think if they could just get a SMALL TASTE of what we have, they would be all over it?

the ones with teh sword are those that are affraid of democracy, because it reduces their power.

and Im asking more than im telling. you are one of the few left leaners here that shows some sense of bi partisanship.

I think the whole world should live like us. Maybe a small taste would be nice. Maybe a trip to Disney World would do it.

I just don't have the inclination to sell them something they either don't want or can't have. Especially when the cost of doing so might be the life of my child. Call me crazy.

But what I AM tellin' ya, those people are gonna live under one sword or another. Ours or their own. We can't stay and hold the sword there forever.
 
Alex said:
That would be deniel. The country IS in a civil war already. What else do you call a section of people repeatedly killing other people in the same country?

I and President Talabani would call it bullshit anti-war propaganda from the drive by media:

Talabani projected a vastly different account of the security situation. He said it had improved since last year when many areas were in the control of terrorists.

Last year, he said by way of example, there were 10 to 14 car bombings a day in Baghdad and this year one to four.

Most of the fighting is centered in Baghdad, and since most media are in the capital they provide a slanted picture of Iraq's situation, Talabani said.

"The media is only focusing on the negative and exaggerating it," he said.
 
Trajan Octavian Titus said:
The Dems don't want a chance to stabilize Iraq they want a chance to cut and run as soon as they regain power which according to Iraqi President Talabani would be an unmitigated disaster for his country:

But ProudAmerican said that Iraq's president said the country is not in trouble. Which is it?
 
Trajan Octavian Titus said:
I and President Talabani would call it bullshit anti-war propaganda from the drive by media:

You are ignoring issues pointed out in post #28. Why?
 
Trajan Octavian Titus said:
I and President Talabani would call it bullshit anti-war propaganda from the drive by media:


:rofl

Just......

:rofl


.......................
 
Originally Posted by ProudAmerican
this I agree with.

I also think certain people use the term "terrorist" when they mean "guerillas" in an intentional effort to be intellectually dishonest.

Originally Posted by Iriemon
I think that is the first thing critical of the Bush administration I have ever seen you write

ProudAmerican said:
lol. slow down sparky.

You were actually one of the folks I was talking about.

I knew it couldn't be true.

But are you really contending it is *I* who have been claiming we are fighting "terrorists" as opposed to guerillas in Iraq?

Conversely, do you mean to say that the Bush administration has not been calling the war in Iraq the war on terror and constantly claiming that we have been fighting terrorist over there for the past 3 years?

Unbelievable.

Up is down and down is up.

For the record, so you are not confused, while I agree that there have been plenty of acts of terrorism in Iraq, IMO we are mainly fighting Iraqis and other Muslims who who are fightin to liberate Iraq from unjustified invaders.

But since we apparently agree now that we are not fighting "terrorists" in Iraq, but guerillas, what the hell are we doing there!
 
Last edited:
But are you really contending it is *I* who have been claiming we are fighting "terrorists" as opposed to guerillas in Iraq?

without a doubt. yep.

everytime you or some other left winger says "terrorism" has increased.....is this not what you are talking about?

you actually meant guerilla war has increased inside iraq.

you hardly mean terrorism such as what happened to us on 9-11 has increased.

or did you?
 
ProudAmerican said:
without a doubt. yep.

everytime you or some other left winger says "terrorism" has increased.....is this not what you are talking about?

you actually meant guerilla war has increased inside iraq.

you hardly mean terrorism such as what happened to us on 9-11 has increased.

or did you?

OK OK I conced and agree with you! Public announcement: Proud American and I both agree we are not fighting terrorists in Iraq.

So what the hell are we doing there if Iraq has nothing to do with fighting terrorists?
 
Iriemon said:
OK OK I agree! Public announcement: Proud American and I both agree we are not fighting terrorists in Iraq.

So what the hell are we doing there if Iraq has nothing to do with fighting terrorists?

Good point, cannot wait to read the response.
 
Iriemon said:
OK OK I agree! Public announcement: Proud American and I both agree we are not fighting terrorists in Iraq.

So what the hell are we doing there if Iraq has nothing to do with fighting terrorists?

Bingo... Ok, we got 3 of us on the same page....let's run with it.
 
Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Because I don't give a sh!t what Nancy Pelosi has to say on the subject. The parts that have not been declassified are classified for a reason.

That was not the question(s) asked. Nice dodge.
 
Iriemon said:
OK OK I conced and agree with you! Public announcement: Proud American and I both agree we are not fighting terrorists in Iraq.

So what the hell are we doing there if Iraq has nothing to do with fighting terrorists?

Actually the report clearly illustrates that Iraq is THE central front in the war on terror and that a cut and run strategy would be a disaster and that if we do achieve a stable Democracy there it will spell a death nell for the jihadist movement.
 
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