Daily deaths projected to double, new cases to increase 8x

[GhostlyJoe]

I guarantee there will be more shut downs if the infection rate spikes too high, and there will be nothing non-essentials will be able to do about it.

We'll check back in 6 months and see if you still think that. Just wait until the populist messaging kicks in. You think Trump was a blue collar backlash? Oh boy!

 

[Evilroddy]

No it won't. lol. We need to re-open our economies and supply chain immediately. That is the only real crisis at this point. 1/4 of people out of work. A bifurcated economy with a huge swath of professions deemed "non-essential." A population that wants to cower at home at the first sniff of danger.

The virus is bad. Not nearly as bad as what's coming if you insist on trying to keep everyone locked down.

GhostlyJoe:

What pray-tell is coming that is more "bad" than a viral epidemic which has killed 70,000 Americans in a month and a half if public health restrictions are not relaxed? What consequences are realistically coming which are worse than what the CDC is predicting for late May and June as the virus ravages the Central Plains and the American South? Slowing the spread of the virus is more important than going golfing, eating in restaurants and hawking products face-to-face.

Life is more than just the pursuit of happiness.

Cheers and be well.
Evilroddy.

 

[GhostlyJoe]

GhostlyJoe:

What pray-tell is coming that is more "bad" than a viral epidemic which has killed 70,000 Americans in a month and a half if public health restrictions are not relaxed? What consequences are realistically coming which are worse than what the CDC is predicting for late May and June as the virus ravages the Central Plains and the American South? Slowing the spread of the virus is more important than going golfing, eating in restaurants and hawking products face-to-face.

Life is more than just the pursuit of happiness.

Cheers and be well.
Evilroddy.

The virus is not going to "ravage the Central Plains and American South." lol

70,000 deaths is a tragic figure. We don't shut down society for that.

Anyway, what's worse than the virus? Mass starvation. Prolonged depression. War.

Life is also much more than just preservation of life.

 

[George50]

The virus is not going to "ravage the Central Plains and American South." lol

70,000 deaths is a tragic figure. We don't shut down society for that.

Anyway, what's worse than the virus? Mass starvation. Prolonged depression. War.

Life is also much more than just preservation of life.

The virus will ravage the central plains just like the flu does, it just takes longer. The South? Tell that to Louisiana. We didn’t shut down society for 70,000, we shut down society to keep it from being far, far worse.


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[Unitedwestand13]

The virus is not going to "ravage the Central Plains and American South." lol

70,000 deaths is a tragic figure. We don't shut down society for that.

Anyway, what's worse than the virus? Mass starvation. Prolonged depression. War.

Life is also much more than just preservation of life.

There is no vaccine for this virus.

It takes 2-14 days for symptoms to appear, so this virus could spread further by people who don’t know that they have the virus until symptoms appear.

Forcing society to reopen too soon might expose more people to the virus.

 

[GhostlyJoe]

The virus will ravage the central plains just like the flu does, it just takes longer. The South? Tell that to Louisiana. We didn’t shut down society for 70,000, we shut down society to keep it from being far, far worse.


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So you admit that this is much like a second flu season. If that's the case, shut down is an asinine response.

Also, the point of shutdown is to prevent a spike that swamps the medical system. That's it. That's what "flattening the curve" means. The virus has still spread, just more slowly. It cannot be contained.

 

[GhostlyJoe]

There is no vaccine for this virus.

It takes 2-14 days for symptoms to appear, so this virus could spread further by people who don’t know that they have the virus until symptoms appear.

Forcing society to reopen too soon might expose more people to the virus.

You hide at home as long as you feel the need.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

You hide at home as long as you feel the need.

Do I not have the right to demand that the government not put my life or the life of my family in danger.

And f.y.i I can get flu shots to deal with the flu.

Covid 19 has no vaccine or medicine capable of preventing it.

 

[GhostlyJoe]

Do I not have the right to demand that the government not put my life or the life of my family in danger.

And f.y.i I can get flu shots to deal with the flu.

Covid 19 has no vaccine or medicine capable of preventing it.

OK. You go ahead and be scared. But you don't get to control everyone else. If you think your family is danger, by all means, lock them into a bubble. Don't be surprised when they defy you, too.

 

[eman623]

A small percentage of 325 million people is millions of people and an overwhelmed healthcare system like in New York. We just found that the virus has a European strain that mutated from the Asian strain. Hard to build herd immunity if the virus is mutating and no guarantee that immunity will last longer than a few months against the same strain.

We are not overwhelmed and have never even come close to being overwhelmed in California. We're going to start reopening on Friday with proper precautions.

 

[upsideguy]

It is important for most people to catch the virus to build up herd immunity but no one must ever get the disease caused by the virus because it can kill you, although it only kills a small percentage of those it infects.

You realize this virus is 10-20X deadlier than a rattlesnake bite (5 deaths per 7000 bites) and can be just as much an ordeal in terms of pain, duration of hospital stay and cost..... Its not something anyone should want. Moreover, there isn't yet proof that herd immunity can be had and be effective.

The virus is not going to "ravage the Central Plains and American South." lol

70,000 deaths is a tragic figure. We don't shut down society for that.

Anyway, what's worse than the virus? Mass starvation. Prolonged depression. War.

Life is also much more than just preservation of life.

We didn't shut down the economy for 70,000 deaths. We got "only" 70,000* deaths by shutting down the economy. We shut down the economy so that we would not have 2 million deaths.

BTW, the 70,000 deaths happened in just two months WITH draconian action taken to slow the spread AND cases are still climbing, as are deaths.... before we open things up.

Don't trivialize this. People are dying.....and they may soon be dying near you.

 

[Tahuyaman]

People are starting to defy the authority of the state, so they are doubling down on the fear mongering.

 

[maxparrish]

People are starting to defy the authority of the state, so they are doubling down on the fear mongering.

Yep, now they are using "save the children" as a trope in their panic porn propaganda.

 

[bongsaway]

It is important for most people to catch the virus to build up herd immunity but no one must ever get the disease caused by the virus because it can kill you, although it only kills a small percentage of those it infects.

I'm starting to wonder if stupid holds some kind of immunity to the virus?

 

[George50]

So you admit that this is much like a second flu season. If that's the case, shut down is an asinine response.

Also, the point of shutdown is to prevent a spike that swamps the medical system. That's it. That's what "flattening the curve" means. The virus has still spread, just more slowly. It cannot be contained.

No this is NOT like a second flu season! A flu season would not kill as many as 2 million people if left unchecked.

As to your comment that it cannot be contained you just aren’t paying attention!! It HAS been contained in countries that did a good job. South Korea is a good example. South Korea had 10,800 cases, 1.7% of tests, 9300 recovered, 1,300 still sick, 254 dead. Population 50 million.


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[Evilroddy]

The virus is not going to "ravage the Central Plains and American South." lol

70,000 deaths is a tragic figure. We don't shut down society for that.

Anyway, what's worse than the virus? Mass starvation. Prolonged depression. War.

Life is also much more than just preservation of life.

GhostlyJoe:

Are you an epidemiologist or virologist by trade? The US Government is using a group of studies from the CDC and the Washington State Institue of Health which say you're very wrong. Who is threatening war? No nation I know of is threatening war over Covid-19 so far. Food is still readily available and farming is going ahead. The biggest problem facing mixed and dairy farmers in the American East is that they cannot sell their products and instead are destroying them. Some food processing plants have had problems with Covid-19 outbreaks but will be up and running soon. About one in five Wendy's have run out of beef patties, God forbid. As usual it's a distribution problem, not a production problem. People will just have to eat slightly older pigs, chickens and beef cattle than in the past for a while. So your doomsday scenarios seem to be unrelated to reality so far.

On the other hand the 70,000 deaths and climbing are a very real fact. So if 70,000 is not enough to practice necessary public health restrictions what is? 150,000? 250,000? 500,000? 1,000,000? What human price are you willing to put on prosperity?

"Life is also much more than the preservation of life.", you say? Maybe if your a martyr preoccupied with the supernatural or a suicidal hero looking for a grenade to leap on. But from a biological perspective survival and reproduction are literally the only purposes of life.

Cheers and be well despite you folly.
Evilroddy.

 

[eman623]

I'm starting to wonder if stupid holds some kind of immunity to the virus?

Or if the inability to detect sarcasm affords immunity.

 

[distraff]

We are not overwhelmed and have never even come close to being overwhelmed in California. We're going to start reopening on Friday with proper precautions.

You weren't overwhelmed because of a combination of luck and strong lockdown measures. New York also got more of the European strain which is more contageous and deadly.

 

[eman623]

You realize this virus is 10-20X deadlier than a rattlesnake bite (5 deaths per 7000 bites) and can be just as much an ordeal in terms of pain, duration of hospital stay and cost..... Its not something anyone should want. Moreover, there isn't yet proof that herd immunity can be had and be effective.

Weird analogy. Snakebites aren't contagious and they are painful and life-threatening for nearly 100% of the people who get bitten. OTOH At least 95% of the people who catch the Chinese Flu have little or no discomfort and are in no way threatened. And most of the other 5% will eventually recover too.

 

[eman623]

You weren't overwhelmed because of a combination of luck and strong lockdown measures. New York also got more of the European strain which is more contageous and deadly.

The lockdown didn't matter much. SF and NYC locked down within 3 days pf each other. Yet SF's per-capita death rate was 2% that of NYC.

I'll need to read up on the "European" vs "Asian" strains of the virus. It probably doesn't explain NYC's horrible per-capita mortality rate, which is several times higher than even the hardest-hit European countries.

We just don't know why. Probably won't for a long time. Of course that hasn't stopped liberals and other bossy, nosy self-entitled people (but I repeat myself) from just assuming they have all the answers and then using said assumptions to tell other people around them how to live their lives.

 

[Tahuyaman]

I'm starting to wonder if stupid holds some kind of immunity to the virus?

I know that stupid fell for the panic and fear mongering.

 

[George50]

The lockdown didn't matter much. SF and NYC locked down within 3 days pf each other. Yet SF's per-capita death rate was 2% that of NYC.

I'll need to read up on the "European" vs "Asian" strains of the virus. It probably doesn't explain NYC's horrible per-capita mortality rate, which is several times higher than even the hardest-hit European countries.

We just don't know why. Probably won't for a long time. Of course that hasn't stopped liberals and other bossy, nosy self-entitled people (but I repeat myself) from just assuming they have all the answers and then using said assumptions to tell other people around them how to live their lives.

Actually, we do know why. San Francisco’s mayor Breed ordered businesses closed and issued a citywide shelter-in-place policy effective on March 17, at a point when San Francisco had fewer than 50 confirmed coronavirus cases. (California Governor Gavin Newsom followed with a similar statewide order a few days later.) On that date, New York City already had more than 2,000 positive cases. But New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, reluctant either to shutter schools or issue a stay-at-home directive for the nation’s largest city, didn’t take similar action for several days. By the time New York City fully shut down on March 22, more than 10,000 cases were reported across its five boroughs.

HUGE difference between shutting down when you have 50 cases vs 10,000. New York was more like Italy, and San Francisco and Washington State are more like, not necessarily the South Koreans who did one of the best jobs anywhere, but some of the Asian countries that have had slower growth rates.

Think of it as being like a forest fire. If you start fighting it when it has just started a bucket of water might put it out, but if you wait until 10 acres are burning and the wind is blowing hard, you will have a real bear of a job controlling it.

As to the European mutation, Germany did a pretty good job with it by being aggressive early. Of course Merkel is a scientist so she understands this kind of stuff. The US being led by a science denier is pretty much doomed.


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[George50]

Now that the virus attack is about to become far worse, the mad king wants to disband the task force that is directing the war against it. What’s up with that?


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[Olddemocrat]

In late March or early April, Fauci projected 100k - 200k. The next day, Trump said 100k. That's no credit to Trump, just a note given the talk of Trump's guesses of late. At that time, I looked at the rate of doubling, the projected curve and Fauci's projection and guessed 50k in April. Mid April, I adjusted that to 60k.

I've grad school modeling including a couple regarding epidemiology, so mine was an educated guess (which some here questioned until after mid April).

My point is, Fauci was right on the money. It's still 100k - 200k. Deaths is a solid data point. One can employ that and any number of mortality rates to project infected. What one ought not do is employ tested cases as infected and build a projection from there. I think we can all see multiple reasons why substituting positive tests for infections is unsatisfactory.

We are already at 70,000. Take New York out of the picture and it is easy to see that the rate of infections and the rate of deaths for the rest of the country is continuing to rise. You understand that the numbers are not only going up, but the rate in which they are going up is increasing also. If Trumps policy of ignoring health officials stands, and who is to say it wont, I am convinced that the 100,000 to 200,000 is optimistic, perhaps wildly so. One thing is certain. Time will make prognosticators, seers and clairvoyants look pretty silly, myself included. At least, I hope to god I am wrong, but I fear that I am not.


With regard to Trump, there is a bit of good news and bad news. The good news is that several groups of influential republicans have come out squarely against Trump. The bad news is that there are only 2 groups, they are small, and they are about 3 years late. Well, better late than never.

 

[ecofarm]

We are already at 70,000. Take New York out of the picture and it is easy to see that the rate of infections and the rate of deaths for the rest of the country is continuing to rise. You understand that the numbers are not only going up, but the rate in which they are going up is increasing also.

See deaths per day.


United States Coronavirus: 1,237,633 Cases and 72,271 Deaths - Worldometer