Daily deaths projected to double, new cases to increase 8x

[OldFatGuy]

The harbinger of death strikes with joy in himself and his dark vision.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, biochemists analyzing genomes of the various strains of the virus are agreeing that new mutations are surfacing of a far less virulent set of pathogens. In plain words, this means that as time continues it may become a considerably weaker predator, perhaps self extinguishing. Obviously, no one is yet suggesting a time frame. No one ever cured the Black Death, the bubonic plague with its accompanying opportunistic pneumonic infections, during the 14th century, and it killed between 30-50% of the populations in affected areas. Comparatively this is a minor blip on the radar. There was no understanding of germ theory during the 14th century, sanitation was abysmal, and as people fled this other worldly seeming plague, they spread it further. All good things come to an end.

 

[Torus34]

Once again, I council caution in accepting the predictions of COVID-19 viral pandemic models for the US. There are some sophisticated models which are constantly being modified as new data becomes available. They will also provide predictions, but will change every few days. To accept any prediction as the be all and end all is simply not prudent.

One big 'if' facing the model builders at this time is whether Americans have incorporated safe practices into their lives to the extent that they will still follow them when restrictions are relaxed. There are others.

Regards, stay safe and remain well.

 

[ClaraD]

I know that stupid fell for the panic and fear mongering.

1.2 million cases and 72,023 dead....there is reason to panic. The first cases emerged in January...in 4 months this is where we are and the virus is mutating and becoming stronger...that is a 5.9% death rate. Flu is .01%

 

[Tahuyaman]

1.2 million cases and 72,023 dead....there is reason to panic. The first cases emerged in January...in 4 months this is where we are and the virus is mutating and becoming stronger...that is a 5.9% death rate. Flu is .01%

There is no reason to panic. There's no reason to suspend the US constitution and shut down the economy of an entire nation.

Panic generally makes it worse.

 

[ClaraD]

There is no reason to panic. There's no reason to suspend the US constitution and shut down the economy of an entire nation.

Panic generally makes it worse.

there is a requirement under the Constitution to protect the people...there is no requirement to protect a business.

If we keep going at the present rate where there are over 72,000 deaths we will be at 288k deaths before the end of the year. That is not a small number of deaths due to a deadly virus.

 

[eman623]

Actually, we do know why. San Francisco’s mayor Breed ordered businesses closed and issued a citywide shelter-in-place policy effective on March 17, at a point when San Francisco had fewer than 50 confirmed coronavirus cases. (California Governor Gavin Newsom followed with a similar statewide order a few days later.) On that date, New York City already had more than 2,000 positive cases. But New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, reluctant either to shutter schools or issue a stay-at-home directive for the nation’s largest city, didn’t take similar action for several days. By the time New York City fully shut down on March 22, more than 10,000 cases were reported across its five boroughs.

HUGE difference between shutting down when you have 50 cases vs 10,000. New York was more like Italy, and San Francisco and Washington State are more like, not necessarily the South Koreans who did one of the best jobs anywhere, but some of the Asian countries that have had slower growth rates.

Think of it as being like a forest fire. If you start fighting it when it has just started a bucket of water might put it out, but if you wait until 10 acres are burning and the wind is blowing hard, you will have a real bear of a job controlling it.

As to the European mutation, Germany did a pretty good job with it by being aggressive early. Of course Merkel is a scientist so she understands this kind of stuff. The US being led by a science denier is pretty much doomed.

Why did SF only have 50 cases while NYC had 10,000. Something else was going on and you seem to be agreeing with me that the lockdown doesn't explain the extreme difference in cases. But you'll forget and tomorrow you'll be back to "lockdown".

As for the TDS, bored now. Germany was slower than NYC in locking down. And NY is lead by Cuomo and Blasio. Are they deniers? Maybe that explains the high incidence rate there.

 

[ClaraD]

Why did SF only have 50 cases while NYC had 10,000. Something else was going on and you seem to be agreeing with me that the lockdown doesn't explain the extreme difference in cases. But you'll forget and tomorrow you'll be back to "lockdown".

As for the TDS, bored now. Germany was slower than NYC in locking down. And NY is lead by Cuomo and Blasio. Are they deniers? Maybe that explains the high incidence rate there.

the population of SF is no where near the population of NYC.
San Francisco is 883,305
NYC is 8.399 million.

and when the shut down occurred there were 50 cases in SF and there were 2000 in NY.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Everyone must get vaccinated when a vaccine becomes available but it won't become available in time so we will need to build up herd immunity except there's no evidence that people can even build up immunity to the virus which means a vaccine is not possible and a recent study in NYC showed 14% already have antibodies so they are immune. Maybe.

"There is no evidence people can build up an immunity to the virus?" Are you keeping up with the latest findings?

South Korea: Patients who retested positive did not relapse - Business Insider

 

[eman623]

the population of SF is no where near the population of NYC.
San Francisco is 883,305
NYC is 8.399 million.

and when the shut down occurred there were 50 cases in SF and there were 2000 in NY.

The per-capita mortality rate for SF is currently only 2% that of NYC. Learn maths, dear.

 

[eman623]

"There is no evidence people can build up an immunity to the virus?" Are you keeping up with the latest findings?

South Korea: Patients who retested positive did not relapse - Business Insider

I did not know that. Thanks for sharing. I'm not being sarcastic.

 

[ClaraD]

The per-capita mortality rate for SF is currently only 2% that of NYC. Learn maths, dear.

There is a much larger population in NY and the people are in a much more compact area in NY.

people per square mile of NYC is 28,363 and in San Francisco it is half that. My math is quite fine...you are trying to compare apples to oranges. Different environments and very different populations. It is like trying to compare Charleston, SC to Mexico City and say they are the same...they aren't.

 

[RAMOSS]

Weird analogy. Snakebites aren't contagious and they are painful and life-threatening for nearly 100% of the people who get bitten. OTOH At least 95% of the people who catch the Chinese Flu have little or no discomfort and are in no way threatened. And most of the other 5% will eventually recover too.

Yet, a lot die, or have strokes, and it is related to a very serious disease in children. The strain on the east coast is also a lot more contagious and has worse symptoms than the strain on the west coast, but I would not be surprised of the strain migrates.

 

[eman623]

There is a much larger population in NY and the people are in a much more compact area in NY.

people per square mile of NYC is 28,363 and in San Francisco it is half that. My math is quite fine...you are trying to compare apples to oranges. Different environments and very different populations. It is like trying to compare Charleston, SC to Mexico City and say they are the same...they aren't.

It's closer to 2/3rds. And why does a density of 28K/sqm = 2,000 deaths per million and one of 17K/sqm = about 25 deaths per million? Why is that? Density doesn't explain the difference.

 

[eman623]

Yet, a lot die, or have strokes, and it is related to a very serious disease in children. The strain on the east coast is also a lot more contagious and has worse symptoms than the strain on the west coast, but I would not be surprised of the strain migrates.

It could be that, but NYC is in a league all of its own. Even other East Cost cities don't approach the infection and mortality rates there. Is there a special NYC strain?

 

[RAMOSS]

It could be that, but NYC is in a league all of its own. Even other East Cost cities don't approach the infection and mortality rates there. Is there a special NYC strain?

It's the strain, plus the density of the population per square mile. Those are the two factors that make it so deadly in NY city and the surrounding areas. The higher density of population allows for a bigger percentage of the population to get exposed all at once...and that caused the hospitals to be a bit overwhelmed, enough to make a difference in the mortality rates. One thing that is being seen is that with social distancing, the new infection rate is dropping, and there are more people being released from the hospitals and being ventilated than are being added.

 

[bongsaway]

I know that stupid fell for the panic and fear mongering.

Over three million cases around the world, over a million in america, more deaths from it in three months than all the years of the viet nam war and still going strong. Yeah, fear mongering.

 

[Olddemocrat]

See deaths per day.


United States Coronavirus: 1,237,633 Cases and 72,271 Deaths - Worldometer

That looks at the total numbers, which include New York. New York numbers are declining sharply, which tends to flatten the curve. If you separate the New York numbers out the numbers show a steady and increasing rate of growth, at least partly due to state governments rashly ending or having never put any controls, social distancing, etc, in place. It's good to see the whole picture.

 

[ClaraD]

"There is no evidence people can build up an immunity to the virus?" Are you keeping up with the latest findings?

South Korea: Patients who retested positive did not relapse - Business Insider

reactivation is a little different than whether a person has immunity or not

"Immunity passports" in the context of COVID-19

and this

But health experts don't yet know whether we really do become immune to COVID-19 after we're infected. And if we do become immune, we don't know how long that might last.

Coronavirus: What Is Herd Immunity And Are You Protected If You Have Antibodies?

Testing for antibodies too soon after an illness can also cause false results. It takes 5-10 days after you get infected to develop antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Antibody tests could give people a false sense of security. They might go back to work and start to travel again when they could still catch or spread the virus. And because people can pass COVID-19 to others without showing symptoms, false positive results could lead to more outbreaks of the virus.




I hope we become immune, but I suspect that an immunity to COVID19 is not like immunity to measles once you catch it. It is far more likely that this virus mutates and while you could have temporary immunity to the virus, you could be no longer immune after a certain amount of time and you would not be immune to any mutations. This is true in both coronaviruses that cause the cold and SARS...they are temporary immunities

 

[ecofarm]

That looks at the total numbers, which include New York. New York numbers are declining sharply, which tends to flatten the curve. If you separate the New York numbers out the numbers show a steady and increasing rate of growth, at least partly due to state governments rashly ending or having never put any controls, social distancing, etc, in place. It's good to see the whole picture.

Do you have the numbers for New York and the rest of the country in comparison or know where to get them? Doing the math by the day would take awhile.

 

[Tahuyaman]

Over three million cases around the world, over a million in america, more deaths from it in three months than all the years of the viet nam war and still going strong. Yeah, fear mongering.

Are you one of these who supports shutting down the economy and using this to force depression level unemployment upon the country? Do you justify suspending our rights guaranteed by the US Constitution?

Yes, the media and government at all levels has instilled fear and panic as a means to increase their power.

 

[eman623]

It's the strain, plus the density of the population per square mile. Those are the two factors that make it so deadly in NY city and the surrounding areas. The higher density of population allows for a bigger percentage of the population to get exposed all at once...and that caused the hospitals to be a bit overwhelmed, enough to make a difference in the mortality rates. One thing that is being seen is that with social distancing, the new infection rate is dropping, and there are more people being released from the hospitals and being ventilated than are being added.

Possible. Not saying it's wrong, but it's just a theory. NYC is a weird outlier and no one is sure why. Lots of European cities have equally high density rates, imperfect distancing and presumably the same strain but much lower rates.

It's also worth noting that 14% of New Yorkers have antibodies now. Herd immunity is building up which may give the disease fewer carriers to spread it.

 

[ClaraD]

It could be that, but NYC is in a league all of its own. Even other East Cost cities don't approach the infection and mortality rates there. Is there a special NYC strain?

The difference is huge, in SF people do not transport in the way they do in areas like NYC...it is in fact far more common in NYC for people to be on the sidewalk walking to work, taking subways etc. I have a neighbor, his son is a professor at Princeton in Princeton, NJ. His wife worked in the city. She would take 5 subways to work and back home every day. Most people in SF drive instead of commuting using public transportation.
the BART system in SF reported 503 million rides over the year for all forms of public transportation...in NYC it was close to 2 billion for just the subway system and that doesn't include buses and taxis.

 

[eman623]

The difference is huge, in SF people do not transport in the way they do in areas like NYC...it is in fact far more common in NYC for people to be on the sidewalk walking to work, taking subways etc. I have a neighbor, his son is a professor at Princeton in Princeton, NJ. His wife worked in the city. She would take 5 subways to work and back home every day. Most people in SF drive instead of commuting using public transportation.
the BART system in SF reported 503 million rides over the year for all forms of public transportation...in NYC it was close to 2 billion for just the subway system and that doesn't include buses and taxis.

Yes, there is that. But can it explain a 50x infection and mortality rate?

 

[ClaraD]

Yes, there is that. But can it explain a 50x infection and mortality rate?

possibly....first different terrain, different states and both are nearly 3,000 miles apart. People perhaps have been much more responsible in SF than in NYC in keeping distance, quarantining etc as well as the fact that it is much easier to practice social distancing in SF than it is in NY.

 

[RAMOSS]

Possible. Not saying it's wrong, but it's just a theory. NYC is a weird outlier and no one is sure why. Lots of European cities have equally high density rates, imperfect distancing and presumably the same strain but much lower rates.

It's also worth noting that 14% of New Yorkers have antibodies now. Herd immunity is building up which may give the disease fewer carriers to spread it.

That is an unknown. we don't know if it even gives immunity. A large percentage (15%) seem to get reinfected later.