Conventional wisdom and the Electoral College, but is it true?
Most prognosticators are giving us a 247-191 head start to the Democrats this election season. They tell us there are only 8 tossup or swing states containing 100 electoral votes. Those tossup states are Florida 29, Ohio 18, North Carolina 15, Virginia 13, Colorado 8, Iowa 6, Nevada 6 and New Hampshire 4. I have in the past went along with this stating the Republicans have to win 79 out of this magic 100 to win the White House which means Florida, Ohio and North Carolina are must win states for the GOP.
But I have heard a lot of talk lately about how the Democrats think Georgia and Arizona is in play, the Republicans are talking about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But are they? Is conventional wisdom wrong about the tossup states? Let’s take a look at these states one at a time.
Georgia – The last time Georgia went Democratic was for Bill Clinton in 1992, a fellow southerner. Current polling gives Trump a 9-point advantage over Clinton. Romney won Georgia by 8 points in 2012. I think having Georgia in play by the Democrats is wishful thinking. By no means is Georgia a solid Republican state, but it falls into the likely category. Likely means this state is not competitive, but it might become so at some time in the future. It will go Republican by 6-10 points. Take Georgia off your wish list Democrats.
Arizona - In 1952 Arizona began a string of voting Republican that has been broken only once, in 1996 when it went to Bill Clinton. Since then Bush won the state by 9 points both in 2000 and 2004, McCain won by 9 in 2008 as did Romney in 2012. That is very consistent to say the least. There hasn’t been a poll matching up Clinton vs. Trump yet. But as is the case in Georgia, I would place Arizona in the likely Republican column. I think the Democrats have a better chance in Arizona than Georgia, but not much. I would leave Arizona on their wish list, but that is all it is, a wish.
Pennsylvania – 6 straight presidential elections Pennsylvania has gone to the Democratic nominee. Pennsylvania hasn’t voted Republican since 1988 when Bush the elder won the state. Like Arizona there has been no presidential polling of a Clinton vs. Trump match up. With Pennsylvania’s voting history I see no reason for it to change its stripes. I would place Pennsylvania in the likely Democratic column. But like Arizona I wouldn’t take it off the Republican wish list quite yet. Not until we see some presidential polling in the state anyway. Pennsylvania is probably a wish that will never materialize for the GOP.
Wisconsin – Wisconsin is one better than Pennsylvania, the state has gone to the Democratic nominee in the last 7 straight presidential elections. That isn’t going to change this election. Hillary Clinton is up by 9 points over Trump in the latest poll. The Republicans need to take Wisconsin off their wish list as it isn’t going to become true. Wisconsin is another state that belongs in the likely democrat column.
Now for the tossup/swing states since we are back to the 247-191 conventional wisdom produced electoral college.
New Hampshire – New Hampshire has gone to the Democratic nominee in 5 of the last 6 presidential elections. 2000 being the exception. According to RCP averages Clinton has an 8-point lead over Trump in this state. Taking the history of New Hampshire along with the latest polls, make New Hampshire likely democrat.
Virginia – From 1968 until 2008 when Virginia went to President Obama, it has been a solid Republican state. President Obama also carried Virginia in 2012. Virginia is definitely trending blue if it is not there already. According to RCP averages Clinton has a 12-point lead over Trump. So throw out Virginia’s long history as a red state, it isn’t anymore. Obama won by 6 and 4 points over McCain and Romney. Normally that is bordering on lean and likely. Lean means the state is competitive, but one party has the advantage. But a double digit lead should put Virginia into the solid Democratic column. But I won’t put it there. I think there is still an outside chance Virginia becomes competitive, so Virginia goes into the Likely Democrat Column.
North Carolina – This state has gone Republican in 8 of the last 9 presidential elections. The exception was 2008 when it went to President Obama over Senator McCain by a single point. In 2012 Romney won the state by 2 points. According to the RCP averages, Clinton leads Trump here 44-43 which makes North Carolina dead even. Throw the long history of North Carolina out the window. The last two election cycles have made this state a pure tossup/swing state. Too close to call.
Florida – Florida is the ideal tossup state; it has split evenly 3-3 in the last 6 presidential elections. President Obama won Florida in 2012 by just 0.88%, less than one percent. Then too who can forget the 2000 election. To top all this closeness off, Trump is up just 0.6% on Clinton according to RCP averages. Another state that is too close to call. Like North Carolina we may be waiting days for these two states to decide who won them.
Ohio – In the last 10 presidential elections Democrats have won 5 and Republicans 5. Another ideal tossup state to join North Carolina and Florida. Quinnipiac has Trump up by 2 over Clinton with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, within the margin of error. Ohio is another dead even state. Too close to call.
Iowa – Iowa has gone to the Democratic nominee in 6 of the last 7 elections with 2004 being the lone exception. One has to wonder why Iowa is considered a tossup/swing state with its history. Since Bush’s victory in Iowa in 2004, Obama has won the state by 10 and 6 points. Not even close. To top that off, Clinton has an 8-point lead in the latest NBC/WSJ poll over Trump. All of this makes Iowa likely democratic.
Colorado – Colorado is another split state, 3-3 in the last 6 presidential elections. But President Obama has taken Colorado twice. By 9 and by 5 points. But Colorado has not been polled for the presidential matchup of Trump vs. Clinton since last year which makes that poll worthless. With just the history to go on, Colorado will remain in the pure tossup column for the time being.
Nevada – Nevada has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 6 presidential elections. President G.W. Bush won Nevada twice, Clinton took Nevada twice as did Obama. There hasn’t been any presidential polling of Nevada on a Trump vs. Clinton matchup. So Nevada will also remain in the pure tossup column.
Below is a synopsis:
Solid States electoral count Hillary 217 Trump 164
Wish list states
Georgia likely Republican Hillary 217 Trump 180
Arizona likely Republican Hillary 217 Trump 191
Pennsylvania likely Democratic Hillary 237 Trump 191
Wisconsin likely Democratic Hillary 247 Trump 191
Tossup/Swing States
New Hampshire likely Democratic Hillary 251 Trump 191
Virginia likely Democratic Hillary 264 Trump 191
Iowa likely Democratic Hillary 270 Trump 191
Pure Tossup/Swing States
North Carolina 15 electoral votes
Florida 29 electoral votes
Ohio 18 electoral votes
Colorado 9 electoral votes
Nevada 6 electoral votes.
Even without the 5 remaining pure tossup/swing states Hillary Clinton is posed to amass the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. The only thing that could stop her is if she loses one of Maine’s congressional districts. Maine awards one electoral vote to the winner of each of its two congressional districts and then two electoral votes to the overall winner of the state. Nebraska does the same with its 3 congressional districts along with awarding the final 2 of that state’s 5 electoral votes to the overall winner. Maine is solid Democratic, so the chance of Trump winning one of its congressional districts is almost non-existent. But if Trump did that would drop Hillary to 269 which then she would need one of the 5 remaining pure tossup/swing states to win the Oval Office. Trump would have to win all three of Nebraska’s congressional districts and all 5 of the remaining pure tossup states to effect a tie at 269 each. Which case the election would go into the House of Representatives to decide the winner.
Most prognosticators are giving us a 247-191 head start to the Democrats this election season. They tell us there are only 8 tossup or swing states containing 100 electoral votes. Those tossup states are Florida 29, Ohio 18, North Carolina 15, Virginia 13, Colorado 8, Iowa 6, Nevada 6 and New Hampshire 4. I have in the past went along with this stating the Republicans have to win 79 out of this magic 100 to win the White House which means Florida, Ohio and North Carolina are must win states for the GOP.
But I have heard a lot of talk lately about how the Democrats think Georgia and Arizona is in play, the Republicans are talking about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But are they? Is conventional wisdom wrong about the tossup states? Let’s take a look at these states one at a time.
Georgia – The last time Georgia went Democratic was for Bill Clinton in 1992, a fellow southerner. Current polling gives Trump a 9-point advantage over Clinton. Romney won Georgia by 8 points in 2012. I think having Georgia in play by the Democrats is wishful thinking. By no means is Georgia a solid Republican state, but it falls into the likely category. Likely means this state is not competitive, but it might become so at some time in the future. It will go Republican by 6-10 points. Take Georgia off your wish list Democrats.
Arizona - In 1952 Arizona began a string of voting Republican that has been broken only once, in 1996 when it went to Bill Clinton. Since then Bush won the state by 9 points both in 2000 and 2004, McCain won by 9 in 2008 as did Romney in 2012. That is very consistent to say the least. There hasn’t been a poll matching up Clinton vs. Trump yet. But as is the case in Georgia, I would place Arizona in the likely Republican column. I think the Democrats have a better chance in Arizona than Georgia, but not much. I would leave Arizona on their wish list, but that is all it is, a wish.
Pennsylvania – 6 straight presidential elections Pennsylvania has gone to the Democratic nominee. Pennsylvania hasn’t voted Republican since 1988 when Bush the elder won the state. Like Arizona there has been no presidential polling of a Clinton vs. Trump match up. With Pennsylvania’s voting history I see no reason for it to change its stripes. I would place Pennsylvania in the likely Democratic column. But like Arizona I wouldn’t take it off the Republican wish list quite yet. Not until we see some presidential polling in the state anyway. Pennsylvania is probably a wish that will never materialize for the GOP.
Wisconsin – Wisconsin is one better than Pennsylvania, the state has gone to the Democratic nominee in the last 7 straight presidential elections. That isn’t going to change this election. Hillary Clinton is up by 9 points over Trump in the latest poll. The Republicans need to take Wisconsin off their wish list as it isn’t going to become true. Wisconsin is another state that belongs in the likely democrat column.
Now for the tossup/swing states since we are back to the 247-191 conventional wisdom produced electoral college.
New Hampshire – New Hampshire has gone to the Democratic nominee in 5 of the last 6 presidential elections. 2000 being the exception. According to RCP averages Clinton has an 8-point lead over Trump in this state. Taking the history of New Hampshire along with the latest polls, make New Hampshire likely democrat.
Virginia – From 1968 until 2008 when Virginia went to President Obama, it has been a solid Republican state. President Obama also carried Virginia in 2012. Virginia is definitely trending blue if it is not there already. According to RCP averages Clinton has a 12-point lead over Trump. So throw out Virginia’s long history as a red state, it isn’t anymore. Obama won by 6 and 4 points over McCain and Romney. Normally that is bordering on lean and likely. Lean means the state is competitive, but one party has the advantage. But a double digit lead should put Virginia into the solid Democratic column. But I won’t put it there. I think there is still an outside chance Virginia becomes competitive, so Virginia goes into the Likely Democrat Column.
North Carolina – This state has gone Republican in 8 of the last 9 presidential elections. The exception was 2008 when it went to President Obama over Senator McCain by a single point. In 2012 Romney won the state by 2 points. According to the RCP averages, Clinton leads Trump here 44-43 which makes North Carolina dead even. Throw the long history of North Carolina out the window. The last two election cycles have made this state a pure tossup/swing state. Too close to call.
Florida – Florida is the ideal tossup state; it has split evenly 3-3 in the last 6 presidential elections. President Obama won Florida in 2012 by just 0.88%, less than one percent. Then too who can forget the 2000 election. To top all this closeness off, Trump is up just 0.6% on Clinton according to RCP averages. Another state that is too close to call. Like North Carolina we may be waiting days for these two states to decide who won them.
Ohio – In the last 10 presidential elections Democrats have won 5 and Republicans 5. Another ideal tossup state to join North Carolina and Florida. Quinnipiac has Trump up by 2 over Clinton with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, within the margin of error. Ohio is another dead even state. Too close to call.
Iowa – Iowa has gone to the Democratic nominee in 6 of the last 7 elections with 2004 being the lone exception. One has to wonder why Iowa is considered a tossup/swing state with its history. Since Bush’s victory in Iowa in 2004, Obama has won the state by 10 and 6 points. Not even close. To top that off, Clinton has an 8-point lead in the latest NBC/WSJ poll over Trump. All of this makes Iowa likely democratic.
Colorado – Colorado is another split state, 3-3 in the last 6 presidential elections. But President Obama has taken Colorado twice. By 9 and by 5 points. But Colorado has not been polled for the presidential matchup of Trump vs. Clinton since last year which makes that poll worthless. With just the history to go on, Colorado will remain in the pure tossup column for the time being.
Nevada – Nevada has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 6 presidential elections. President G.W. Bush won Nevada twice, Clinton took Nevada twice as did Obama. There hasn’t been any presidential polling of Nevada on a Trump vs. Clinton matchup. So Nevada will also remain in the pure tossup column.
Below is a synopsis:
Solid States electoral count Hillary 217 Trump 164
Wish list states
Georgia likely Republican Hillary 217 Trump 180
Arizona likely Republican Hillary 217 Trump 191
Pennsylvania likely Democratic Hillary 237 Trump 191
Wisconsin likely Democratic Hillary 247 Trump 191
Tossup/Swing States
New Hampshire likely Democratic Hillary 251 Trump 191
Virginia likely Democratic Hillary 264 Trump 191
Iowa likely Democratic Hillary 270 Trump 191
Pure Tossup/Swing States
North Carolina 15 electoral votes
Florida 29 electoral votes
Ohio 18 electoral votes
Colorado 9 electoral votes
Nevada 6 electoral votes.
Even without the 5 remaining pure tossup/swing states Hillary Clinton is posed to amass the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. The only thing that could stop her is if she loses one of Maine’s congressional districts. Maine awards one electoral vote to the winner of each of its two congressional districts and then two electoral votes to the overall winner of the state. Nebraska does the same with its 3 congressional districts along with awarding the final 2 of that state’s 5 electoral votes to the overall winner. Maine is solid Democratic, so the chance of Trump winning one of its congressional districts is almost non-existent. But if Trump did that would drop Hillary to 269 which then she would need one of the 5 remaining pure tossup/swing states to win the Oval Office. Trump would have to win all three of Nebraska’s congressional districts and all 5 of the remaining pure tossup states to effect a tie at 269 each. Which case the election would go into the House of Representatives to decide the winner.