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Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago

Chillfolks said:
Democrats love that new Math. An increase is really a decrease if you ignore this, only look at that, and carry the 1.
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A reduction in prices would indicate a stagnation in output... a recession. Ideally, you want the rate of growth to stabilize and not for prices to fall.
 
Kushinator said:
Where is there MAGA cult? There was time when these folks couldn't wait to post a thread when CPI data was released and then crow about midterms. [/FONT]
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This is still far from good news, it is improving sure. But we are in the worse inflationary period in decades.

Kushinator said:
We are going to have 5% inflation for at least the next year... and we need that as a society who has taken on these levels of debt. Eventually, economic output is going to come back to reality and the 2% rGDP / 2% inflation will be the norm.
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This is the real problem, right? Pushing inflation down from 8 to 5 is probably a hell of a lot easier than 5 to 2.5. That means the FRB is going to (as they have indicated) hold rates higher for longer to suppress a strong rebound. I also agree that the FRB needs to maintain a slightly hot inflation as it is really the only way to chew away at our debt.

My biggest concern is that the reason for the declining inflation is overall global economic growth slowing and what happens when that turns back on. The classic example is the fact that the global is *extremely* tight on certain commodities right now, even with depressed demand. What the hell is the world going to do if China ramps back up and the US does at the same time? Where is the oil/diesel/gasoline/kersone/concrete etc going to come from?

Russia and Ukraine are shaping up to create a particular disaster in the energy/ag markets. Even in a perfect solution, that problem persists for *years* at this point and there is no material solution in a timely manner.
 
Kushinator said:
We are going to have 5% inflation for at least the next year... and we need that as a society who has taken on these levels of debt. Eventually, economic output is going to come back to reality and the 2% rGDP growth / 2% inflation will be the norm.
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Yep, and folks tend to feel better when they eventually stop hurting. ;)
 
BUT WHAT ABOUT HUNTER'S LAPTOP?!?!?!?!
 
Chillfolks said:
Democrats love that new Math. An increase is really a decrease if you ignore this, only look at that, and carry the 1.
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Math is hard for you. I get it.
 
bave said:
This is still far from good news, it is improving sure. But we are in the worse inflationary period in decades.
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bave said:
This is the real problem, right? Pushing inflation down from 8 to 5 is probably a hell of a lot easier than 5 to 2.5.
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Since June-July 2022, inflation is at ~2.4% annualized. If it holds the same going forward, we are already there.
 
bave said:
This is still far from good news, it is improving sure. But we are in the worse inflationary period in decades.
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Higher prices are a necessary evil. The midterms were a disaster for your party so that style of fear mongering is clearly not working.
bave said:
This is the real problem, right? Pushing inflation down from 8 to 5 is probably a hell of a lot easier than 5 to 2.5.
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Output is still ridiculously high. GDP growth is going to have to fall to 5% for inflation to go back to pre-pandemic levels.

We are watching this occur in the largest contributor to output growth: consumption of goods.
bave said:
That means the FRB is going to (as they have indicated) hold rates higher for longer to suppress a strong rebound. I also agree that the FRB needs to maintain a slightly hot inflation as it is really the only way to chew away at our debt.
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They can maintain higher interest rates as output still continues to soar. The Fed will take it's foot off the brakes when the labor market begins to show deterioration. Tough line to walk, but the best path forward.
bave said:
My biggest concern is that the reason for the declining inflation is overall global economic growth slowing and what happens when that turns back on.
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Global growth is not sustainable (especially in the developed world) and is driving inflation pressures.
bave said:
The classic example is the fact that the global is *extremely* tight on certain commodities right now, even with depressed demand. What the hell is the world going to do if China ramps back up and the US does at the same time? Where is the oil/diesel/gasoline/kersone/concrete etc going to come from?
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From ramping up of course! It's not going to happen in a vacuum.
 
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Slavister said:
Since June-July 2022, inflation is at ~2.4% annualized. If it holds the same going forward, we are already there.
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That's CPI. There is undoubtedly a considerable amount of goods / services substitution built into the pipeline. A more accurate measure of inflation is going to be the Core PCE index.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
Yep, and folks tend to feel better when they eventually stop hurting. ;)
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But were they hurting? Clearly not! More like complaining that they have to pay more for things while their net worth has doubled or tripled.
 
Kushinator said:
But were they hurting? Clearly not! More like complaining that they have to pay more for things while their net worth has doubled or tripled.
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That might be true for those who ‘owned’ a home, but not for others. We’ll be better off after the COLA for our SS starts next month, but have been hurting from the recent inflation.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
That might be true for those who ‘owned’ a home, but not for others. We’ll be better off after the COLA for our SS starts next month, but have been hurting from the recent inflation.
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This is always the case. Some win and some do not. However, debt has been melting away, and people who bought / refinanced during those record low rates are going to be experiencing a longer term income effect.
 
CaughtInThe said:
If inflation comes down and gas prices continue to drop what are Republicans going to talk about next year?
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The Fake Laptop is immortal.
 
CaughtInThe said:
WTF??
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you will never see $1.99 bacon again or $25,000 new 4x4 1500 trucks or $2.99 Crisco or $80 a SF new home build .....

2 years record inflation will stay forever .... and those $12 an hour burger flipping jobs don't look so hot now do they ?
 
stealthycat said:
you will never see $1.99 bacon again or $25,000 new 4x4 1500 trucks or $2.99 Crisco or $80 a SF new home build .....

2 years record inflation will stay forever .... and those $12 an hour burger flipping jobs don't look so hot now do they ?
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i, literally, have already seen the stuff i buy in the grocery store come down in price.

gas is lower.


things are already coming down in price while you said they're never coming down.
 
Kushinator said:
But were they hurting? Clearly not! More like complaining that they have to pay more for things while their net worth has doubled or tripled.
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Yeah, if they can't buy food, just take out a second mortgage! Stupid complainers!! 🤪
 
Kushinator said:
Where is there MAGA cult? There was time when these folks couldn't wait to post a thread when CPI data was released and then crow about midterms.
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Kushinator said:
We continue to observe the evidence that inflation has peaked as data confirmed to show a decline in price increases.
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Quite pathetic that 7.1% annual inflation is worthy of praise. Wow a decline in the increase!

This is like those who tell others that reducing the rate of increase in a program is a "cut".
 
CaughtInThe said:
i, literally, have already seen the stuff i buy in the grocery store come down in price.

gas is lower.


things are already coming down in price while you said they're never coming down.
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He didn’t say prices would not come down, said that prices wouldn’t return to their pre-inflation levels.
 
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