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Boycott Citgo

128shot said:
the only way something like this will work is if there is government capital and drive actually put into much needed research.

Research? It's been done - for the most part. Certainly there's still more that could be done; BUT, the technology is here now. E85 is being sold at gas staitions around the country. Sure, it's still rare but it doesn't have to stay that way. We, the people, need to demand this technology be pushed to the forefront. There's plenty of investment opportunities - ethanol refining facilities, mega-corporate farms to grow mass amounts of corn/soybean/etc. Oil companies & auto makers could profit from this new technology. Obviously American auto makers have staked their future on this with them leading the way in the amount of flex-fuel vehicles they've aready made. We need to stop pandering to foreign oil companies who sue us to change our emissions laws just to except their inferior fuel (i.e. Citgo).
 
Arthur Fonzarelli said:
Research? It's been done - for the most part. Certainly there's still more that could be done; BUT, the technology is here now. E85 is being sold at gas staitions around the country. Sure, it's still rare but it doesn't have to stay that way. We, the people, need to demand this technology be pushed to the forefront. There's plenty of investment opportunities - ethanol refining facilities, mega-corporate farms to grow mass amounts of corn/soybean/etc. Oil companies & auto makers could profit from this new technology. Obviously American auto makers have staked their future on this with them leading the way in the amount of flex-fuel vehicles they've aready made. We need to stop pandering to foreign oil companies who sue us to change our emissions laws just to except their inferior fuel (i.e. Citgo).

any cheap sustainable E-85 or any other bio product will have to come from quick growing, large, probably GM plants.


I don't think we're there yet, we're so damn close though..
 
If you want Venezuela to make less money from oil, there's only three ways to do it: (A) Decrease the amount of oil Venezuela produces, (B) Increase the amount of oil that the world as a whole produces, (C) Decrease the worldwide demand for oil.

(A) is not likely without military intervention, which would be a waste of American resources. (B) is also not likely, since we're nearing (or have already reached) peak-oil production; it's downhill from here in regards to supply. (C) is the only viable solution.

And as bad as Chavez is, the Saudis and Iraqis are a lot worse. Russia has a lot more power to harm American interests than does Venezuela. For all of his anti-American bluster and damage that he's inflicting on Latin America...he's simply not very relevant to American interests. As long as he keeps the oil flowing, the United States is (and should be) willing to tolerate his potty-mouth.
 
ludahai said:
A democratic election where you control all of the media sources is not democratic. BTW, Freedom House has ranked them as less free in 2005 than they were in 2004.

you don't think candidates control the media here? The candidate who hass the money wastes no time! Look at the mayoral elections of 2005 in NYC. everytime you turned on the tv, you were bombarded by bloomberg adds. Ferrer on the other hand, didn't have a single add.

BTW that's only because the little third parties boycotted. All the main oppostion stayed. Anyhow, everyone knew he'd win.
 
Arthur Fonzarelli said:

Sure, they all work. The original diesal engine was compatible with peanut oil. But the real fact of the matter is that The oil companies have a very strong lobby in politics. However, the publics opinion on oil is changing. Since the rise of gas prices, I've seen more and more ads for hybrids and flexfuel cars. The change is inevitable but it may not happen for maybe more than a decade.
 
che said:
gave away oil for free to poor Americans in New York.

No, he didn't give anything away for free.

That is why "we're going to offer fuel for heating that is 40 percent cheaper" than market prices, said Chavez, adding that the plan would benefit 7 million to 8 million poor people in the United States.

He said the price reduction would be attained through the elimination of intermediaries, with the sale being made directly through Citgo, a US branch of Venezuela's state-run petroleum company PDVSA.

Chavez said the fuel would be distributed to the poor through organizations headed by veteran defender of civil rights in the United States, Jesse Jackson, actor Danny Glover and other personalities.

Jackson, who is currently visiting Venezuela, joined Chavez on television to announce his involvement with the plan.

As you can plainly see, this was a political stunt, nothing more, nothing less. Perhaps the worst part is the fact that in relative economic terms, the Venezuelan people are much more in need of the funds foregone by Chavez's actions that the people in the northeastern US are in need of cheaper fuel oil for one winter.
 
oldreliable67 said:
No, he didn't give anything away for free.

still, 40% less than market price is a good deal.



As you can plainly see, this was a political stunt, nothing more, nothing less. Perhaps the worst part is the fact that in relative economic terms, the Venezuelan people are much more in need of the funds foregone by Chavez's actions that the people in the northeastern US are in need of cheaper fuel oil for one winter.

So what? most things are. The fact remains however, that it was a generous thing to do.
 
ludahai said:
Citgo is the Venezuelan state owned oil company. Considering the actions of the Hugo Chavez government regarding threats to curtail U.S. carrier flights to Venezuela, threats to cut back oil exports, expressing support for Iran, who just wants to wipe Israel off the map, and getting buddy buddy with Fidel, it's about time to make him realize that he needs the American consumer far more than the United States needs him.
Ironicly I have an uncle that works at a Citgo oil refinery in Louisiania?
 
Citgo recently moved it's headquarters from Tulsa, OK. to Houston.

Citgo employs over 4,200 people and licenses over 13,500 gas stations, making it one of the country’s largest gas station chains. Citgo’s refinery operations produce about 859,000 barrels per day.
 
So what? most things are. The fact remains however, that it was a generous thing to do.

Generous? It certainly reflects his priorities: do something to try improve his political stock with anti-US groups at the expense of his own people. Thats generous?
 
I cannot find it in myself to agree with a Citgo boycott. Just because Hugo Chavez is playing the political game with Venezuelan oil, that's all it is - a game. He and his advisors know that they need America more than we need them. America consumes over half of the world's oil and if he won't sell Venezuelan oil to us, someone else will. It could be possible that if he does cut the US off, gas prices would go up but his gov't would be losing just as much as the US.

Sadly, we need oil. There are not enough alternate fuel sources for us to even consider boycotting any company that is capable of processing our fuel, and therefore, capable of crippling America's economy by selling the fuel abroad.
 
It's funny, I was just yesterday looking to see where my local CITGO was to filler up. I'll pick Chavez over Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East hands down every time.

Interestingly, this Citgo boycott rumbling follows on the heels of a similarly-forwarded entreaty urging consumers to take the opposite tack: Americans should buy only Citgo brand gasoline, it says, in order to support "Venezuela's democratic government" and avoid sending more U.S. dollars to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries:

Looking for an easy way to protest Bush foreign policy week after week? And an easy way to help alleviate global poverty? Buy your gasoline at Citgo stations.

And tell your friends.

Of the top oil producing countries in the world, only one is a democracy with a president who was elected on a platform of using his nation's oil revenue to benefit the poor. The country is Venezuela. The President is Hugo Chavez. Call him "the Anti-Bush."

Citgo is a U.S. refining and marketing firm that is a wholly owned subsidiary of Venezuela's state-owned oil company. Money you pay to Citgo goes primarily to Venezuela — not Saudi Arabia or the Middle East. There are 14,000 Citgo gas stations in the US. (Click here to find one near you.) By buying your gasoline at Citgo, you are contributing to the billions of dollars that Venezuela's democratic government is using to provide health care, literacy and education, and subsidized food for the majority of Venezuelans.

Instead of using government to help the rich and the corporate, as Bush does, Chavez is using the resources and oil revenue of his government to help the poor in Venezuela. A country with so much oil wealth shouldn't have 60 percent of its people living in poverty, earning less than $2 per day. With a mass movement behind him, Chavez is confronting poverty in Venezuela. That's why large majorities have consistently backed him in democratic elections. And why the Bush administration supported an attempted military coup in 2002 that sought to overthrow Chavez.

So this is the opposite of a boycott. Call it a BUYcott. Spread the word.

Of course, if you can take mass transit or bike or walk to your job, you should do so. And we should all work for political changes that move our country toward a cleaner environment based on renewable energy. The BUYcott is for those of us who don't have a practical alternative to filling up our cars.

So get your gas at Citgo. And help fuel a democratic revolution in Venezuela.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/citgo.asp

citgo-venezuela.jpg
 
hipsterdufus said:
It's funny, I was just yesterday looking to see where my local CITGO was to filler up. I'll pick Chavez over Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East hands down every time.

Why am I not surprised at such an anti-American action from an avowed leftist.

Most of our oil does not come from the Middle East. Better to support AMERICAN or British or those of other friendly nations rather than that of the dictator-in-training in Caracas.
 
ludahai said:
Why am I not surprised at such an anti-American action from an avowed leftist.

Most of our oil does not come from the Middle East. Better to support AMERICAN or British or those of other friendly nations rather than that of the dictator-in-training in Caracas.

What you both fail to understand is that oil is oil is oil. If you buy more oil from American and British companies, American and British companies will accomodate the increased demand by buying more oil from Venezuela. The same amount of money is exchanged for the same amount of oil and flows into the same pockets, no matter what gas station YOU buy it from.
 
Kandahar said:
What you both fail to understand is that oil is oil is oil. If you buy more oil from American and British companies, American and British companies will accomodate the increased demand by buying more oil from Venezuela. The same amount of money is exchanged for the same amount of oil and flows into the same pockets, no matter what gas station YOU buy it from.

Any documentation for this?
 
ludahai said:
Any documentation for this?

Economics 101 at any university.

The fungibility of oil is the reason you can get a daily quote on the price of a barrel of oil, without specifying where you are in the world or what company you want to buy it from. There's no difference at all between a barrel of crude Venezuelan and a barrel of crude Canadian. You could mix it all together and it would be exactly the same...and that's more or less what happens when companies sell it.

Imagine there are only two oil companies in the world, BP and Citgo. For hypothetical purposes, let's assume that BP gets all of its oil from "good" countries, such as Canada/US/Norway. And let's assume that Citgo gets all of its oil from "bad" countries, such as Venezuela/Saudi Arabia/Iran. If the social-justice-minded American consumer decides to only buy from BP, BP's demand will increase and Citgo's demand will decrease. Therefore, the price of BP gas will increase and the price of Citgo gas will decrease. But since the market is now out of equilibrium and BP needs to get its extra gasoline from somewhere, its cheaper for BP to just accomodate your extra demand by buying gasoline from Citgo than by producing more. So the logical conclusion is that you buy more gasoline from BP instead of Citgo, BP itself buys more gasoline from Citgo, and the same amount of money flows into the same pockets in exchange for the same amount of oil.

If we want to deny oil funds to nasty places like Venezuela, we need to simply use less oil.
 
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Kandahar said:
Economics 101 at any university.

The fungibility of oil is the reason you can get a daily quote on the price of a barrel of oil, without specifying where you are in the world or what company you want to buy it from. There's no difference at all between a barrel of crude Venezuelan and a barrel of crude Canadian. You could mix it all together and it would be exactly the same...and that's more or less what happens when companies sell it.

Imagine there are only two oil companies in the world, BP and Citgo. For hypothetical purposes, let's assume that BP gets all of its oil from "good" countries, such as Canada/US/Norway. And let's assume that Citgo gets all of its oil from "bad" countries, such as Venezuela/Saudi Arabia/Iran. If the social-justice-minded American consumer decides to only buy from BP, BP's demand will increase and Citgo's demand will decrease. Therefore, the price of BP gas will increase and the price of Citgo gas will decrease. But since the market is now out of equilibrium and BP needs to get its extra gasoline from somewhere, its cheaper for BP to just accomodate your extra demand by buying gasoline from Citgo than by producing more. So the logical conclusion is that you buy more gasoline from BP instead of Citgo, BP itself buys more gasoline from Citgo, and the same amount of money flows into the same pockets in exchange for the same amount of oil.

If we want to deny oil funds to nasty places like Venezuela, we need to simply use less oil.

I agree we need to use less oil AND do more to develop domestic sources. You are missing another variable. Opening more oil fields in other countries. Norway is actively exploring around Spitzbergen, and they are expected to find a lot there - ironically, a task that global warming figures to make easier. Let's support the Norweigans and British to exploit their sources more and put the pinch on Chavez.

However, long term, I agree on the need to cut the use of oil. Until then, exploit domestic sources to the extent that is possible is one way to send less money to thugs like Chavez.
 
The fungibility of oil is the reason you can get a daily quote on the price of a barrel of oil, without specifying where you are in the world or what company you want to buy it from. There's no difference at all between a barrel of crude Venezuelan and a barrel of crude Canadian. You could mix it all together and it would be exactly the same...and that's more or less what happens when companies sell it.

This is not precisely true. There are a few things that distinguish crude:

1) Viscosity--some crude oil is heavy, some is light. There are many shades.

2) Sulfur content--high sulfur content oil is called "sour crude" whereas low sulfur content oil is called "sweet crude."

3) Location is important--we'd much rather get most of our oil from the western hemisphere as it takes less time to get from where they pull it out of the ground to our shores. This is important for a number of reasons, some of them fairly technical and involved with how the oil markets work. But obviously, the shorter the supply chain, the less likely it is to be disrupted.

The first two are particularly important--one of the sayings that got bandied about last year and apparently accepted as true without questioning is that lack of refinery capacity is what drove the price of gasoline up, not lack of oil supply. This is true in a certain sense. It requires a number of modules that are not contained in most refineries to fraction heavy sour crude. Prior to 2004, light sweet crude was still abundant. But it peaked that year, and ever since then, the proportion of heavy sour crude has been growing. Heavy Sour crude is called heavy for a reason--it weighs more because it's denser than light crude. It therefore takes more energy to get it out of the ground and to transport it, making it more expensive at the outset. The additional sulfur content also requires extra refining, and there are comparatively few refineries that can handle it.

The problem is, no more refineries are being built. Oil companies are quite aware that it would not be profitable to build them, not because the price of oil has gone up tremendously, but because there will not be enough oil to supply any new refineries by the time the original investment is recouped.

In any case, I have a couple more comments about some misconceptions I saw in this thread (and I'm sorry to sound like a sanctimonious prick, but this is one of the most important issues we face and I consider it necessary to speak up--I really mean no offense to anybody):

1) The Oil Majors are to blame for high prices. This is not correct. Don't get me wrong; I don't think the Oil Majors are a nice and well-meaning bunch. But oil is traded on exchanges (2 principle exchanges, the West Texas Intermediary and the Brent) in much the same way that stocks are, except the vast majority of oil is sold by futures contract within a narrow band of the spot price. If you look at the amount of money traded daily on the 2 major exchanges, it vastly exceeds the profits that the Oil Majors clear in a quarter. This means that even if they wanted to manipulate the markets, they wouldn't have the cash. They're aware that Aramco and others are still sitting on a decent inventory, so they have to sell near spot if they want to make money.

High oil prices are to be blamed on supply fears which appear to have been correct. This is not a situation that can or will get better.

Incidentally, if you actually try to buy a barrel of oil at spot price, you'll find it very difficult to do. A little is sold at spot, but 99% of it is sold at a contract rate that is off-spot by some percent. Spot is, in turn, just an average per barrel of the contracts reported.

2) That we can develop domestic sources. Again, not really correct. Some new technology may help matters, but every time someone has an idea it's trumpetted as "THE" solution and it never turns out that way. CO2 injection is the current rage, but preliminary results are lackluster. Oil production peaked in 1971 in America. We have a drill density that is higher than any other country on earth. There's just not going to be any major sources of oil developed in the U.S.

3) That boycotting Citgo will hurt Venezuela. Also not true, and this is where Kandahar has a decent point. If we don't buy it, the BRIC nations certainly will. Boycotting CITGO hurts us; Chavez would laugh it off if we stopped buying his oil; Jintao has said he would take as much as Venezuela could pump. This is important for more than just that reason, though. Of all the oil producing nations, Venezuela is one of the few major ones that still has any spare capacity. It also hasn't peaked. If they get motivated to make contracts with other countries, whatever supplies we have secured are likely to run out before Venezuelan oil will run out, leaving foreign governments with a fueled army amidst an entropic world while ours has stalled. Surely even those on the right can see that would be a bad thing.
 
I am not completely up to date with Chavez and Venezuela but wasn't Chavez popularly elected? Didn't he let the Media have full freedom despite them attacking him visciously daily? Wasn't it the fact that he gave the media free reign that they were able to propagandize a protest (or some sort of political demostration) when they showed so called pro-Chavez people shooting into a crowd, though this ended up being completely not true; instead it was pro-Chavez gunmen trying to shoot a sniper who was reigning bullets upon them? Wasn't it a CIA and United States coup that ended up throwing Chavez out of office for trying to nationalize his countries oil? And wasn't it the popular mass protesting in front of the presidents chamber (I have no idea what it is called) ultimately reinstating Chavez who was held by the Venezuelan military at an undisclosed location? Or is that some other Evil Dictator?
 
ashurburnipal said:
oil is traded on exchanges (2 principle exchanges, the West Texas Intermediary and the Brent) in much the same way that stocks are, except the vast majority of oil is sold by futures contract...

Very large and fundamental differences in how stocks and futures are traded: locals trading for their own account versus the specialist system, the system of margin requirements, different regulators, not to mention the undelying fundamental differences in the instruments themselves. About as similar as nite and day.

ashurburnipal said:
If you look at the amount of money traded daily on the 2 major exchanges, it vastly exceeds the profits that the Oil Majors clear in a quarter.

Haven't looked at the IPE in a while, but the NYMEX CL contract lately has an open interest of about 928,000 contracts and trades about 28,000 to 30,000 contracts daily, with about half that in the spot month. Average daily trading volume therefor runs about $1.8 billion in contract face value. For open interest, it suggests about $57 billion. In terms of margin requirements, or the amount of money actually put up when a trade is initiated, the open interest represents about $4.4 billion, while average volume is about $1.8 billion. However, the open interest and volume margin estimates overstate the amounts to the extent that open interest and volume is represented by member firms and customer members, who both have considerably lower margin requirements.

But keep in mind that these are merely notional amounts. Unlike equity markets (even in a margin account) the face value or notional amount does not change hands in a purchase or sale of a futures contract. The only money that actually changes hands on a daily basis is margin money, in the form of new initial margin (for newly established positions) or maintenance margin (representing the mark-to-market).

I haven't looked up the quarterly gross or net profits of the majors (not sure which you were referring to when referred to 'clear' profits), but I certainly recall XON's record quarter. If you have the data at hand, perhaps you could comment on whether these crude futures trading numbers actually exceed either gross or net profits for the major oil companies?
 
Very large and fundamental differences in how stocks and futures are traded: locals trading for their own account versus the specialist system, the system of margin requirements, different regulators, not to mention the undelying fundamental differences in the instruments themselves. About as similar as nite and day.

The point I was trying to make, in less than 10 pages, is that oil is not priced in the way that, say, retail goods are priced. It's not like people walk into a giant warehouse and ask Exxon how much per barrel. Oil is traded on a group of exchanges, and as such the people who pump the oil out of the ground are only part of the mechanism that sets the price.

Of course you're correct that there's quite a bit of difference. But given that I was trying to explain in simple terms the single fact that oil is priced by the market, not by the people who pump it, does any of that difference actually make a difference?

Haven't looked at the IPE in a while, but the NYMEX CL contract lately has an open interest of about 928,000 contracts and trades about 28,000 to 30,000 contracts daily, with about half that in the spot month. Average daily trading volume therefor runs about $1.8 billion in contract face value. For open interest, it suggests about $57 billion. In terms of margin requirements, or the amount of money actually put up when a trade is initiated, the open interest represents about $4.4 billion, while average volume is about $1.8 billion. However, the open interest and volume margin estimates overstate the amounts to the extent that open interest and volume is represented by member firms and customer members, who both have considerably lower margin requirements.

1) IIRC, Exxon's Q3 2005 net was a little north of 10 billion dollars, so in terms of physical oil bought and sold, I suppose that comes to about 2 days' worth (physical oil per day sold is roughly 5.5 billion dollars worth). About 5 days on margin.

2) Regardless of how you cut it, a futures contract is going to come due and the money specified is going to have to be traded for the physical oil for whoever owns the mature contract. So, any manipulating they do has to be backed at some point by enough cash to actually buy the oil. Even if the strike price per contract is very low, those profits aren't going to be enough for more than a few weeks' worth. Now, one thing I didn't think about when I made that post is that while they may not be doing the manipulating, they might be asking Chase Manhattan or Wachovia to do it; if in turn the Fed is backing the bank with an inflow of currency, it could certainly work. But I'd have expected the Fed to stop reporting M3 data a lot sooner than it did if that were the plan.

3) But even then, somewhere along the way someone has to bite the bullet, and given that the oil majors only control about 20% of the world's oil, manipulating the market is going to be a very risky proposition. Because while their oil might rise in price, they'd have to buy enough to keep the price high to eliminate much of whatever profit they might make; they just don't have that much money. Because who is going to trade for 20% of the world's oil on NYMEX when the other 80% could be had for much less in Dubai? And we also can't forget that quite a few other interests, all with their own cash to leverage, wanted the price to remain low.

4) The IRS isn't going to let the majors hide inventory once it's actually out of the ground. It's one thing to under-report the size of your P90's, it's another entirely to under-report the oil you actually pumped or purchased from someone and held. So it would be financial suicide to enter into enough contracts to drive up the price and then hang onto that oil long enough to keep the price up because you'd have to pay taxes on it, and once you release it, the price will drop on whatever oil you produce immediately thereafter.

5) All of this ignores the fact that several other very plausible events happened between 1999 and 2005 to drive up the price of oil--the principle one being that the Caspian Region turned out to be a comparative bust. In 1995, estimates were that the FSR 'stans had maybe a trillion barrels of recoverable oil. That number is now down to something like 30 bbls, and quite a number of other projects in alternative sources, deepwater projects, etc. turned out to be more expensive and difficult than anticipated. Existing fields were starting to go south--the North Sea (for instance) is now on what looks like a 17% decline rate, which is simply astonishing if it weren't also disastrous.

The point I'm trying to make is one that I consider to be absolutely critical as we, as a society, haven't a whole lot of time to make a difference. Oil production will be peaking fairly soon; after that happens, oil will become progressively harder and more expensive to extract. Decline type III for countries that have passed peak is starting to edge more towards the apocalyptic side--the last figure I looked at estimated an average 10% decline rate. This wasn't by some liberal enviro-wacko, this was from a conservative oil investor.

But keep in mind that these are merely notional amounts. Unlike equity markets (even in a margin account) the face value or notional amount does not change hands in a purchase or sale of a futures contract. The only money that actually changes hands on a daily basis is margin money, in the form of new initial margin (for newly established positions) or maintenance margin (representing the mark-to-market).

Again, at some point the contract matures, and the money has to be forked over (well, the contract could be sold, but depending on that is like counting on roulette winnings to pay back the mob). Turning around and selling whatever oil you just purchased will only depress the price, so it's not a highly profitable game in any event.
 
ashurbanipal said:
Again, at some point the contract matures, and the money has to be forked over (well, the contract could be sold, but depending on that is like counting on roulette winnings to pay back the mob). Turning around and selling whatever oil you just purchased will only depress the price, so it's not a highly profitable game in any event.

Well, no. I haven't looked at the delivery percentages in quite a while for CL, but almost all "physical" commodities have a very low percentage of deliveries actually made/taken (as opposed to financials, which are predominately cash settled or if delivery is made/taken, they are just bits of red paper being exchanged for green bits of paper, thus a much easier process, in terms of 'physicality'). The typical commercial hedger and certainly the majority of speculators, whether locals or upstairs traders/specs will offset or roll forward their positions before the spot month contract enters the delivery period. Relatively few stay for delivery (emphasis on relatively).

Don't forget the most basic axiom of commodities markets: there is a buyer for every seller and a seller for every buyer. Every trading day, all positions are marked to market at the settlement price: anyone with a loss exceeding their margin on deposit has to forward that margin to the clearing corp.; anyone with a profit on their position in excess of their margin requirement is able to withdraw that position in cash if they so wish. Consequently, in the narrow sense or within the confines of the pit, it is a zero sum game, with friction in the form of commissions, outtrades, exchange fees, and other miscellaneous costs of trading.

ashurbanipal said:
...a futures contract is going to come due and the money specified is going to have to be traded for the physical oil for whoever owns the mature contract. So, any manipulating they do has to be backed at some point by enough cash to actually buy the oil. Even if the strike price per contract is...

> Futures don't have a strike price. Options, including options on futures, have a strike price.

> Not to be picky, but it is an important part of a futures contract: futures contracts don't 'come due', in the sense that one's monthly utility bill 'comes due', they expire or simply terminate trading (in the case of CL, on the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month.) Positions remaining open after the last trading are obligated to make/take delivery.

> Being a bit more picky, one can 'own' either a short position (profits when the price declines) or a long position (profits when the price increases) in a futures contract,

so it's not a highly profitable game in any event.

Futures trading is indeed a tough biz. However, the growth of the NYMEX energy complex suggests that it is a very profitable game for some participants - otherwise, it would not have grown to its current size and significance in the world's energy markets. These pits offer all that a commodity trader/hedger/speculator could desire: a huge crowd of locals risking their own capital to make a profit, huge commercial hedger participation to provide public order flow for the locals to trade against, and a critical commodity. Certainly, this contract fulfills its price discovery function extremely well.
 
Well, no. I haven't looked at the delivery percentages in quite a while for CL, but almost all "physical" commodities have a very low percentage of deliveries actually made/taken (as opposed to financials, which are predominately cash settled or if delivery is made/taken, they are just bits of red paper being exchanged for green bits of paper, thus a much easier process, in terms of 'physicality'). The typical commercial hedger and certainly the majority of speculators, whether locals or upstairs traders/specs will offset or roll forward their positions before the spot month contract enters the delivery period. Relatively few stay for delivery (emphasis on relatively).

Which doesn't change the fact that underneathe all this, physical oil is still being traded, and if the oil majors were the people driving the price up by buying contracts and holding oil, they wouldn't have that option because they have to offer the contracts to make money on their product (or sell to someone who will offer them). I think you're taking my remarks as being directed at the market in general, rather than at a hypothetical scenario that I consider highly unlikely.

> Futures don't have a strike price. Options, including options on futures, have a strike price.

Please excuse my loose way of talking and off the cuff remarks--I was referring to money that is exchanged at the initiation of a contract. Again, I have to ask: does this affect my overall point?

Not to be picky, but it is an important part of a futures contract: futures contracts don't 'come due', in the sense that one's monthly utility bill 'comes due', they expire or simply terminate trading (in the case of CL, on the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month.) Positions remaining open after the last trading are obligated to make/take delivery.

By "come due" I meant the date specified for delivery in the contract comes around. Either the contract is covered by another contract, delivery is made, or it is settled in cash. If, say, Exxon is trying to drive up the price of oil, how long would it take them to run out of money if they keep rolling contracts forward based on their Q3 profits? I don't know, but just given the volume, it appears it would be far sooner than the quarter would end. Ergo, they're not the ones driving up the price. Not that I think they don't try. I'm sure they do all they can. I just don't see that they have the cash.

Being a bit more picky, one can 'own' either a short position (profits when the price declines) or a long position (profits when the price increases) in a futures contract

Anyone whose business is selling oil is hardly going to take a short position if they're trying to drive prices up, except as a hedge. I'm not trying to enter into a general discussion of speculation in the commodity markets. I'm trying to discuss a specific scenario that I think many Americans have a vague idea may be going on--i.e. that the majors are gouging. That's not the case; when it comes to the totality of the market, as big and nasty as they are, they just don't have that kind of pull. Again, as I mentioned, if they've got Citicorp or some other large bank helping them out, then this could work.

Futures trading is indeed a tough biz. However, the growth of the NYMEX energy complex suggests that it is a very profitable game for some participants - otherwise, it would not have grown to its current size and significance in the world's energy markets. These pits offer all that a commodity trader/hedger/speculator could desire: a huge crowd of locals risking their own capital to make a profit, huge commercial hedger participation to provide public order flow for the locals to trade against, and a critical commodity. Certainly, this contract fulfills its price discovery function extremely well.

Again, I think you're taking my remarks as meant to be true of the markets and all investors in general, whereas I am actually talking about what it would take for Exxon, Total, Shell, etc. specifically to drive up the price of oil by speculation.

So anyway, now let me turn this around: if you think that the majors are pushing the cost of oil up by market manipulation, how would you envision that scenario working out?
 
ashurbanipal said:
physical oil is still being traded, and if the oil majors were the people driving the price up by buying contracts and holding oil, they wouldn't have that option because they have to offer the contracts to make money on their product (or sell to someone who will offer them).

In order to receive the significantly lower margin requirements afforded to legitimate hedgers, oil producers almost always have to be sellers of futures contracts. That is the only way that they, as producers, can hedge their price risk. If they begin going long (buying) futures for reasons other than simply rolling a hedge forward to the next contract, they are no longer due hedge margins. They are already long the product; if they buy futures or options contracts, then they are long even more product and thereby exposed to even greater price risk. Exchange clearing corporations have very sharp pencils. Playing the float on moneys posted for margin requirements is a very profitable business for them.

That is not to say that there is never any speculative activity on the long side of the market by the trading/hedging arms of the majors. With deep pockets, a favorite tactic of someone with a sizable number of contracts to sell, is to first, buy up as many as possible, hoping to get a bandwagon effect going, so that he can then dump all his positions at a higher price. A little information as to inventories and production schedules can't hurt either. Sometimes it works; sometimes it don't.

ashurbanipal said:
Please excuse my loose way of talking and off the cuff remarks--I was referring to money that is exchanged at the initiation of a contract. Again, I have to ask: does this affect my overall point?

Your comments reflect a somewhat vauge awareness of the workings of the commodities markets. You use some of right words but in often in the wrong context (e.g., futures don't have strike prices, options have strike prices; see below for my comment on cash versus physical settlement, among others.)

ashurbanipal said:
Either the contract is covered by another contract, delivery is made, or it is settled in cash.

CL is physical delivery, not cash settlement.

ashurbanipal said:
I am actually talking about what it would take for Exxon, Total, Shell, etc. specifically to drive up the price of oil by speculation.
...
if you think that the majors are pushing the cost of oil up by market manipulation, how would you envision that scenario working out?

As to your overall point, it is extremely difficult, almost impossible, for anyone to manipulate an exchange-traded US commodities market today, for several reasons: one, the exchange surveillance systems are very good at picking up unusual activity (whether it is in volume spikes or concentrations or whatever); two, exchange-imposed position limits in and of themselves almost guarantee that a market as deep and liquid as crude can't be manipulated (absent extremely broad collusion); three, the CFTC requires the filing of daily position reports, and these are not just tossed in a file cabinet, they are reviewed by CFTC analysts.

The NYMEX crude contract has the following position limits:

"Any one month/all months: 20,000 net futures, but not to exceed 2,000 contracts in the last three days of trading in the spot month."

In a market that often trades upwards of three hundred thousand contracts daily, 20,000 net contracts is barely a ripple.

If there is gouging by the majors, it is highly unlikely to be solely or predominately as a result of their activities at the NYMEX. It is more likely to be as a result of withholding physical oil from the market while simultaneously refraining from hedging activities, and effective PR.
 
scottyz said:
I've been buying Citgo gasoline a lot lately simply because they offer the cheapest gas in town.
Bingo. This is the real key to the debate - Free markets. Unfortunately, many of those who advocate free markets are quick to unadvocate them if their friends in the oil business are not competitive in a free market. The whole Chavez thing is nothing but a red herring.

And yes, I DO fill up with Citgo. Its about a nickel cheaper here in Houston, and I hear its a lot cheaper than that in other parts of the country. If Exxon-Mobil feels that Chavez is such a big issue, then all they have to do is step up to the plate and beat Citgo's price. If Chavez is such a threat, I am sure that they would be willing to sacrifice a little profit in order to fight that threat, wouldnt you think? But We the People are always asked to do the sacrificing, while Bush's cronies always get a free pass on that. To that I say Bushit. Fill 'er up Caesar.
 
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