Biden Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes

[Slavister]

Alright, I really like the work Nate Silver does at 538. I've been following him since his Burrito Bracket blog! But his numbers strike me as high, here. I think he and others are underestimating the effect of voter suppression & tabulation suppression.

By "underestimate", do you mean "do not take into account whatsoever"? I mean do their models allow for that at all or just talk about "likely voters" without consideration of those votes not being counted in the end.

 

[OceanBlues1]

And, that's before proof emerged that Trump is debt compromised, a terrible businessman, a tax dodger and an all around liar about everything.

Well, let's just hope he'll lose BIG this time.

 

[Chomsky]

Let’s hope more people vote than they can suppress

It's a d state of affairs. If we can pul it off, we'll really have earned it!

 

[Chomsky]

By "underestimate", do you mean "do not take into account whatsoever"? I mean do their models allow for that at all or just talk about "likely voters" without consideration of those votes not being counted in the end.

I have no idea what the models do in these terms. But I do believe the aggregate forms of suppression will knock a point or three off of the Dems.

 

[Daddyo]

Not, that's what the Republicans are counting on. Trump is the one wanting to stop mail in ballots.

Trump wants to stop random unfettered mail in ballots you know the ones that are at highest risk for fraud.

The ones the democrats are demanding because the fraud will benefit them.

9 open ballot found tossed out. 7 trump 2 undisclosed. Probably not even Biden's. Now you know why trump doesn't want them.

If you were fair you would say trump supports mail in ballots that are secure and monitored properly. Something that takes years to fine tune. But that would completely destroy your narrative.

 

[Moon]

Boom!

Biden Now Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes: FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 76.7%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 76.6% on Sept. 24. He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes.

www.bloomberg.com

And, that's before proof emerged that Trump is debt compromised, a terrible businessman, a tax dodger and an all around liar about everything.

Whew! Now we can just skip that whole election thing!

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Boom!

Biden Now Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes: FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 76.7%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 76.6% on Sept. 24. He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes.

www.bloomberg.com

And, that's before proof emerged that Trump is debt compromised, a terrible businessman, a tax dodger and an all around liar about everything.

Well that's great but he needs 375 or better if he wants to stave off Trump's tantrums.

 

[Daddyo]

Boy, Trump sure has put you in a trance

Why are we in a trance yet its your democrats who push the most insecure methods of voting?

No id......democrats
Mail in ballot to all voters......democrats
Auto registration with drivers license.....democrats ( allows illegals to vote illegally)

I promise you that IF republicans would benefit from voter fraud you would demand id and fight mail in ballots. Just as we do.

 

[JMR]

Hey, what do you suppose a 29% chance to win the WH would look like? Would it maybe look like losing the pop by 3m and barely eking out the EC with just 80k votes across 3 states?

Probabilities - how do they even work!

The percentage of the public that is functionally innumerate is like 110%

 

[Daddyo]

Stock market believes Trump will win as do the odds makers.

I will tell you this......in my entire adult life I have never seen the lack of democrat signage. My neighborhood is a good mixture of both R & D. I havent seen a single Biden sign and only one Biden bumper sticker this whole election cycle. While common for the republican to remain anonymous out of fear from democrat retaliation, democrats have zero concerns.

Polls say 60 percent of Republicans admit to lying to pollsters about who they will vote for.

So you socialists shouldn't count MY chicken before they hatch lol.

Can't wait to walk in and vote. 12 more years of Trump!

 

[Eriech]

Biden will not get 252. Bookmark this.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[Helix]

i wouldn't count the chickens just yet.

 

[JMR]

Stock market believes Trump will win as do the odds makers.

I will tell you this......in my entire adult life I have never seen the lack of democrat signage. My neighborhood is a good mixture of both R & D. I havent seen a single Biden sign and only one Biden bumper sticker this whole election cycle. While common for the republican to remain anonymous out of fear from democrat retaliation, democrats have zero concerns.

Polls say 60 percent of Republicans admit to lying to pollsters about who they will vote for.

So you socialists shouldn't count MY chicken before they hatch lol.

Can't wait to walk in and vote. 12 more years of Trump!

My neighborhood is totally devoid of all signage. Even the prior Trump shrines are naked. We were treated to a Trump parade yesterday afternoon. About 25 flag waving pickup trucks took part. And then it was gone.

 

[calamity]

Stock market believes Trump will win as do the odds makers.

I will tell you this......in my entire adult life I have never seen the lack of democrat signage. My neighborhood is a good mixture of both R & D. I havent seen a single Biden sign and only one Biden bumper sticker this whole election cycle. While common for the republican to remain anonymous out of fear from democrat retaliation, democrats have zero concerns.

Polls say 60 percent of Republicans admit to lying to pollsters about who they will vote for.

So you socialists shouldn't count MY chicken before they hatch lol.

Can't wait to walk in and vote. 12 more years of Trump!

lol...nice fail. Odds makers have Biden as the heavy favorite.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds: Biden Ahead Despite Another Trump Indictment Bump

President Joe Biden remains the Democratic party frontrunner. Let's take a look at the Presidential odds.

bookies.com

You have to bet almost $140 on Joe to win $100. Meanwhile, the books are bribing you to put a hundred bucks on Trump with a $20 bonus.

 

[Mashmont]

Boom!

Biden Now Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes: FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 76.7%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 76.6% on Sept. 24. He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes.

www.bloomberg.com

And, that's before proof emerged that Trump is debt compromised, a terrible businessman, a tax dodger and an all around liar about everything.

Ah yes. Nate Silver. Isn't he the little bedwetter who said Hillary had a 71% chance of winning in 2016?
lol.
lol.
lol.

 

[Irwin Corey]

I have no idea what the models do in these terms. But I do believe the aggregate forms of suppression will knock a point or three off of the Dems.

538 is predicting Biden with a 78 in 100 chance of winning and Trump 22 in 100. I don't think they translate that to 352 Electoral votes; the best I've seen them forcast is 279 Electoral Votes as of today.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/fivethirtyeight-2020-election-forecast

Inside Elections has Biden winning 319, the highest I've seen, Electoral Votes.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/inside-elections-2020-president

 

[Deuce]

Ah yes. Nate Silver. Isn't he the little bedwetter who said Hillary had a 71% chance of winning in 2016?
lol.
lol.
lol.

You realize that a 71% chance of winning is a 29% chance of losing, right?

 

[Chomsky]

538 is predicting Biden with a 78 in 100 chance of winning and Trump 22 in 100. I don't think they translate that to 352 Electoral votes; the best I've seen them forcast is 279 Electoral Votes as of today.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/fivethirtyeight-2020-election-forecast

Inside Elections has Biden winning 319, the highest I've seen, Electoral Votes.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/inside-elections-2020-president

I doubt any of the polling aggregators are considering voter or tabulation suppression. They're just averaging the polls.

 

[Luther]

Why are we in a trance yet its your democrats who push the most insecure methods of voting?

No id......democrats
Mail in ballot to all voters......democrats
Auto registration with drivers license.....democrats ( allows illegals to vote illegally)

I promise you that IF republicans would benefit from voter fraud you would demand id and fight mail in ballots. Just as we do.

t its your democrats

I'm NOT a Democrat

 

[Luther]

Ah yes. Nate Silver. Isn't he the little bedwetter who said Hillary had a 71% chance of winning in 2016?
lol.
lol.
lol.

With her winning about 3 million more popular votes that about right?

 

[Mashmont]

With her winning about 3 million more popular votes that about right?

You’re counting the millions of illegals voting, right?

 

[Luther]

You’re counting the millions of illegals voting, right?

No, that is what Trump said after his EGO was hurt by losing the popular vote

 

[TheParser]

What are the odds that democrats will have a mental breakdown on Nov 3 if Trump wins another upset victory?

Oh, yes, if by chance the President is decisively reelected, the Dems will lose their marbles.

Not to worry, though.

He will not win.

The Dems through their allies (BLM, the Deep State, the New York Times, etc.) have done an excellent job in demonizing President Trump. And -- truth be told -- he has done himself no favors with that big mouth.

Heck, the Dems are already salivating at seeing Donald J. Trump doing the perp walk. And if his enemies have their way, they will even invent some charges against Melania.

The next four years are going to be "interesting."

 

[Mashmont]

Oh, yes, if by chance the President is decisively reelected, the Dems will lose their marbles.

Not to worry, though.

He will not win.

The Dems through their allies (BLM, the Deep State, the New York Times, etc.) have done an excellent job in demonizing President Trump. And -- truth be told -- he has done himself no favors with that big mouth.

Heck, the Dems are already salivating at seeing Donald J. Trump doing the perp walk. And if his enemies have their way, they will even invent some charges against Melania.

The next four years are going to be "interesting."

The only way Trump loses is if the left can cheat enough.

 

[Slavister]

I have no idea what the models do in these terms. But I do believe the aggregate forms of suppression will knock a point or three off of the Dems.

Yeah, I just posted the answer to this in a separate thread. It's as we feared...