Biden landslide creeps into view

[ttwtt78640]

So then you don’t believe Tara Reade. Or any of Clinton’s accusers. Huh. Fair!

I believe that folks are innocent until convicted of a crime. That seems fair to me.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

I believe that folks are innocent until convicted of a crime. That seems fair to me.

Okay. So you don’t believe them.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Okay. So you don’t believe them.

I don’t believe that an accusation indicates guilt. Do you?

 

[Aunt Antifa]

I don’t believe that an accusation indicates guilt. Do you?

Of course not. So you don’t believe them. I don’t know why you keep asking me about this when I’m not saying anytihng you disagree with, unless you disagree with me.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Of course not. So you don’t believe them. I don’t know why you keep asking me about this when I’m not saying anytihng you disagree with, unless you disagree with me.

I disagreed with your initial (post #10?) claim that the 25 allegations were “credible”. Based on the fact that none of those allegations resulted in criminal prosecutions, what made you deem them to be “credible”?

 

[EnigmaO01]

The Memo: Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and…

thehill.com

From my understanding, the RNC is almost out of advertising money. Trump plans a barnstorming tour, but those that turnout at his rally's are already Trump supporters. He is attracting few new converts. Try as he might, Trump cannot escape coronavirus and his mishandling of the pandemic from the beginning. Especially damming to Trump are the Woodward recordings concerning COVID and his ugly comments about US military dead (losers and suckers). Adding to his problems are articles by the NYT concerning Trumps taxes and how his properties have served as "pay-to-play" influence conduits. Vulnerable GOP Congress critters are trying to put distance between themselves and Trump (they cannot - they have all acted as dedicated Trump enablers).

All that said, do not accept complacency. Make sure you VOTE!

Just sent money to the Lincoln Project. Lincoln Project you rock!

 

[EnigmaO01]

25 women, ZERO evidence.

Meanwhile, we got videos, photos and audio of Joey and his creepiness.

One woman claiming this, could be written off. Even a couple. But when you get to 25 women there's something serious going on. Deny it all you want.
And there is evidence. It just can't go to court until the fat slob looses the election.

 

[Jack Hays]

2020 ELECTION
October 13, 2020 6:00 AMWhat Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020
By Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich

 

[Aunt Antifa]

I disagreed with your initial (post #10?) claim that the 25 allegations were “credible”. Based on the fact that none of those allegations resulted in criminal prosecutions, what made you deem them to be “credible”?

Why? You have declared only criminal prosecution and conviction is proof of guilt. So I asked if you believed this criteria for all of these charges. You said you did.

Why do I have to prove what I think when we agree that you’re not saying anything controversial?

 

[ttwtt78640]

Why? You have declared only criminal prosecution and conviction is proof of guilt. So I asked if you believed this criteria for all of these charges. You said you did.

Why do I have to prove what I think when we agree that you’re not saying anything controversial?

Hmm... have you now decided that those 25 allegations were not “credible” since we allegedly agree?

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Hmm... have you now decided that those 25 allegations were not “credible” since we allegedly agree?

No! I don’t agree with your philosophy that only via prosecution and conviction is an allegation true. I can use my own judgement to review pertinent facts, the folks involved, their histories, etc.

We agree in the sense that if you are stating you don’t believe any allegation unless prosecuted and convicted that there isn’t anything you’re saying that’s super controversial. I just don’t share your overall position and preferred decision-making process.

 

[Tim the plumber]

No! I don’t agree with your philosophy that only via prosecution and conviction is an allegation true. I can use my own judgement to review pertinent facts, the folks involved, their histories, etc.

We agree in the sense that if you are stating you don’t believe any allegation unless prosecuted and convicted that there isn’t anything you’re saying that’s super controversial. I just don’t share your overall position and preferred decision-making process.

If somebody has been raping 25 women with little planning and it being a thing at parties etc I would expect that there would somewhere be some sort of actual evidence.

It is odd that such a thing would have no credible witnesses and actual evidence.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

If somebody has been raping 25 women with little planning and it being a thing at parties etc I would expect that there would somewhere be some sort of actual evidence.

It is odd that such a thing would have no credible witnesses and actual evidence.

Gee, it’s so weird that Jeffrey Epstein got away with what he got away with for so long. I wonder why. I wonder why powerful wealthy men have been able to rape women forever with no repurcussions. It can’t possibly be the money and all the other dudes willing to call all those women liars, could it?

 

[Perotista]

The Memo: Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and…

thehill.com

From my understanding, the RNC is almost out of advertising money. Trump plans a barnstorming tour, but those that turnout at his rally's are already Trump supporters. He is attracting few new converts. Try as he might, Trump cannot escape coronavirus and his mishandling of the pandemic from the beginning. Especially damming to Trump are the Woodward recordings concerning COVID and his ugly comments about US military dead (losers and suckers). Adding to his problems are articles by the NYT concerning Trumps taxes and how his properties have served as "pay-to-play" influence conduits. Vulnerable GOP Congress critters are trying to put distance between themselves and Trump (they cannot - they have all acted as dedicated Trump enablers).

All that said, do not accept complacency. Make sure you VOTE!

Trump hasn't added any new supporters since he became president. 46% that he received in 2016 is in my opinion, the highest he can expect in 2020. Biden on the other hand is much less disliked by swing voters, you can call them independents than Hillary Clinton was. Trump won these swing voters, independents in 2016 46-42 with 12% voting against both major party candidates. Their disdain for both was that high that they gladly voted for a candidate they knew had no chance of winning.

I would estimate looking at all the recent polls that Biden has picked up at least half of that 12%. They still don't like Trump, but being they disliked Biden a lot less than Clinton, they moved into Biden's corner. The result is Biden being between 49-51% in the polls since May while Trump is stuck down at between 41-43%. Rarely has either on risen above or fallen below those percentages. It seems most folks have made up their minds who they'll vote for as far back as May and it seems there is no changing their minds. We still have around 7% undecided, but not enough for Trump to overcome Biden's lead. Back in 2016 at this time or point in the campaign, there were 16% undecided. A fairly large pool for Trump to pull from to overcome what was at that time a four point Hillary lead. With Biden ahead by 10, with the small pool of 7% to overcome that, I can't see Trump pulling this out.

The only question left in my mind, will Biden have coat tails enough to pull the senate into democratic control. I have a net gain of 4 for the democrats as of today, but with some good coat tails, that 4 could turn into 8 or something in-between.

 

[Tim the plumber]

Gee, it’s so weird that Jeffrey Epstein got away with what he got away with for so long. I wonder why. I wonder why powerful wealthy men have been able to rape women forever with no repurcussions. It can’t possibly be the money and all the other dudes willing to call all those women liars, could it?

If there is some sort of prepaired situation, where the environment is controled, office secured, secetary outside doing cover etc, then yes sure.

When these things are supposed to have happened in les controled situations then I don't see how it is so credible.

Epstein was broken wide open once his power went. The first few attacks suddenly became overwhelming for his power as evidence mounted up. This is not the case with this one.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Trump hasn't added any new supporters since he became president. 46% that he received in 2016 is in my opinion, the highest he can expect in 2020. Biden on the other hand is much less disliked by swing voters, you can call them independents than Hillary Clinton was. Trump won these swing voters, independents in 2016 46-42 with 12% voting against both major party candidates. Their disdain for both was that high that they gladly voted for a candidate they knew had no chance of winning.

I would estimate looking at all the recent polls that Biden has picked up at least half of that 12%. They still don't like Trump, but being they disliked Biden a lot less than Clinton, they moved into Biden's corner. The result is Biden being between 49-51% in the polls since May while Trump is stuck down at between 41-43%. Rarely has either on risen above or fallen below those percentages. It seems most folks have made up their minds who they'll vote for as far back as May and it seems there is no changing their minds. We still have around 7% undecided, but not enough for Trump to overcome Biden's lead. Back in 2016 at this time or point in the campaign, there were 16% undecided. A fairly large pool for Trump to pull from to overcome what was at that time a four point Hillary lead. With Biden ahead by 10, with the small pool of 7% to overcome that, I can't see Trump pulling this out.

The only question left in my mind, will Biden have coat tails enough to pull the senate into democratic control. I have a net gain of 4 for the democrats as of today, but with some good coat tails, that 4 could turn into 8 or something in-between.

This is an excellent post. Thank you.

I think Biden is going to have coattails for the same reason Trump is going to lose bigly: this is a repudiation election. Joe is exactly what he was projected to be: a completely safe, comfortable landing spot for the country. And I think the country is responding by letting it rip in regards to Trump and the GOP.

I’ve said this before: Trump’s base owns this. If they held him even a little accountable for the last 4 years, we may not be where we are and their boy might actually be on the verge of eking out another EC win.

 

[JasperL]

I forsee a landslide but I don't know which side it will be.

I fthe polls are right the Jo wins, if there are vast numbers of Trumpers out there who will deny that they are for social pressure reasons and sleepy causes half the Dems to not bother then Trump wins and the world is safer from the corruption of the carrer politician.

Well, we can already see an enormous turnout, and all the evidence so far is it's dominated by Democrats so there's nothing to indicate complacency on the D side, and lots of evidence that most D's are like me and will crawl over broken glass to vote, and plan on voting in the first few days of early voting in my area. And my vote is going to be worthless because Trump will carry TN handily, but I'm going to register it.

And it would be nice if Trump saves us from the corrupt of "carrer politician" and keeps up the massive corruption from right wing hangers on and deplorables, that we've seen for the past 4 years. Want a favor from Trump - have a party at his D.C. hotel and join Mar-a-lago! Oh, you've never built anything larger than a house? Well, you're a buddy so here's a $1 billion government contract for the wall, when the wall you built with private money is falling down!!

 

[Aunt Antifa]

If there is some sort of prepaired situation, where the environment is controled, office secured, secetary outside doing cover etc, then yes sure.

When these things are supposed to have happened in les controled situations then I don't see how it is so credible.

Epstein was broken wide open once his power went. The first few attacks suddenly became overwhelming for his power as evidence mounted up. This is not the case with this one.

So once he lost power, only then was he punished.

What’d I say?

 

[Jack Hays]

Electoral College: With 20 Days to Election Trump Running Ahead of 2016 Polls

 

[Slavister]

Trump hasn't added any new supporters since he became president. 46% that he received in 2016 is in my opinion, the highest he can expect in 2020. Biden on the other hand is much less disliked by swing voters, you can call them independents than Hillary Clinton was. Trump won these swing voters, independents in 2016 46-42 with 12% voting against both major party candidates. Their disdain for both was that high that they gladly voted for a candidate they knew had no chance of winning.

I would estimate looking at all the recent polls that Biden has picked up at least half of that 12%. They still don't like Trump, but being they disliked Biden a lot less than Clinton, they moved into Biden's corner. The result is Biden being between 49-51% in the polls since May while Trump is stuck down at between 41-43%. Rarely has either on risen above or fallen below those percentages. It seems most folks have made up their minds who they'll vote for as far back as May and it seems there is no changing their minds. We still have around 7% undecided, but not enough for Trump to overcome Biden's lead. Back in 2016 at this time or point in the campaign, there were 16% undecided. A fairly large pool for Trump to pull from to overcome what was at that time a four point Hillary lead. With Biden ahead by 10, with the small pool of 7% to overcome that, I can't see Trump pulling this out.

The only question left in my mind, will Biden have coat tails enough to pull the senate into democratic control. I have a net gain of 4 for the democrats as of today, but with some good coat tails, that 4 could turn into 8 or something in-between.

All Trump has to do is to keep them home not voting. In 2016, Comey helped with that. Do you think team Trump forgot about it? Do you really think we've seen his October surprise already or that he is not planning on one or few of those?

 

[JasperL]

Electoral College: With 20 Days to Election Trump Running Ahead of 2016 Polls

The difference is at that point Hillary was polling around 44 or 45 and Trump at 39, the rest 16% undecided.

In 2020, it's 50-45 in the battleground states, and only 5% undecided. There's a lot fewer people TO move this time around. Trump has to get almost all the undecideds.... Good luck with that I guess, but Trump is not "running ahead" by any rational measure. More importantly, there was a lot of voter apathy last time with Hillary, and many didn't vote, but this time we're seeing record turnout, especially from Democrats, across the country, like we saw record Democratic turnout in 2018.

Obviously Trump can still win, but there's no objective reason to think so on this date. If something changes, his odds change, but it's going to have to be big. I doubt if Comey equivalent is around to open up another chapter in BUTHEREMAILS at the last possible moment, but you can never count out Consigliere Barr for some late day shenanigans.

 

[Jack Hays]

The difference is at that point Hillary was polling around 44 or 45 and Trump at 39, the rest 16% undecided.

In 2020, it's 50-45 in the battleground states, and only 5% undecided. There's a lot fewer people TO move this time around. Trump has to get almost all the undecideds.... Good luck with that I guess, but Trump is not "running ahead" by any rational measure. More importantly, there was a lot of voter apathy last time with Hillary, and many didn't vote, but this time we're seeing record turnout, especially from Democrats, across the country, like we saw record Democratic turnout in 2018.

Obviously Trump can still win, but there's no objective reason to think so on this date. If something changes, his odds change, but it's going to have to be big. I doubt if Comey equivalent is around to open up another chapter in BUTHEREMAILS at the last possible moment, but you can never count out Consigliere Barr for some late day shenanigans.

You may very well be right; I'm just passing along the RCP numbers. Mrs. Hays and I already cast our votes for Biden.

 

[BrotherFease]

Biden looks like he's in great shape. He's got about 226 electoral college votes in the bag. He's leading in 9 out of the 11 swing states. Polls show he's leading among senior citizens who traditionally favor the Republicans. Biden has a large lead among women and virtually tied among men.

Trump has made pretty much all of the missteps. Poor debate performance against Biden. You have the struggling economy. You have Covid-19 still out of control. You have the taxes, Bob Woodward book, and the fact he got covid-19 after disobeying his own government's safety precautions.

On the other hand, we could see a scandal break out for Biden a week before the election. You never know what those late-late deciders will break toward. In presidential politics, there's no such thing as a guarantee. We could see another 1948 or a 2016. There's also a possibility that the GOP in Texas, Florida and Ohio will fight to stop the electors in those states from casting their ballots or drag us through a long-winded Supreme Court fight.

 

[BrotherFease]

Electoral College: With 20 Days to Election Trump Running Ahead of 2016 Polls

RCP's headline is not exactly true. They are referring to the swing/battleground states. In those states, Clinton was pretty identical to Biden, especially in Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn. However, RCP did have Clinton with 203 safe electoral college votes heading into the election. Trump had 164. In 2020, Biden is at 226 and Trump is at 125.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Trump has made pretty much all of the missteps. Poor debate performance against Biden. You have the struggling economy. You have Covid-19 still out of control. You have the taxes, Bob Woodward book, and the fact he got covid-19 after disobeying his own government's safety precautions.

A lot of false assumptions here.

Polling, immediately after the first debate, but before his Covid diagnosis, showed Trump gaining ground. Check the IBD and USC tracker the two days following the debate.

The "struggling economy" is nonsense. Our economy is recovering 10 times as quickly as it would be if Democrats were in office, everyone knows that.

Covid-19 "still out of control" is not accurate, if you are talking about severe cases.

No one cares about Trump's taxes. And Trump's approval didn't budge an inch as the result of the Woodward book, neither did his poll numbers at that time.

Much of this is liberal fantasy.

What DID drive down Trump's poll numbers was, surprise, his being hospitalized.

And now that Americans are getting the impression that Trump has recovered fully, polling, including The Hill and IBD, is showing him trending back up. IBD shows him gaining 2.5 points in the past day, and Rasmussen shows Trump with 46% support, compared to 40% last week.

Over Half Still Say They Are Likely to Vote Against Trump

Slightly more than half of voters still say they are more likely to vote against President Trump, a finding that hasn’t changed in a year of regular surveying.

www.rasmussenreports.com