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Another Senate Race now tight that never was before

poweRob

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Mississippi Senate race between Mike Espy and Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith has a slight 41% to 40% lead over Democratic challenger Mike Espy in a poll released Monday morning by the Tyson Group.​
The same pollster had Hyde-Smith up on Espy 54% to 28% in March.​
The Tyson Group recently conducted polls in Gulf Coast states for the Consumer Energy Alliance on the issue of offshore drilling. FiveThirtyEight, which rates national pollsters, gives Tyson a B/C grade.​

538 Mississippi senate polling
 

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I don't think that particular race is as close as that poll margin would imply. 18% undecided is an awful lot. The poll does not break down those 18% undecided exactly, but more conservative voters are undecided than liberal ones. More Republican voters are undecided than Democrats. More white voters are undecided than black. It is highly likely those undecided voters lean Republican. It's not impossible Espy improves a little on his 2018 performance or that he gets close to what Hood did last year, but I think it's very unlikely Democrats win such an inflexible state. Mississippi is one of the least elastic states out there.
 

poweRob

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I don't think that particular race is as close as that poll margin would imply. 18% undecided is an awful lot. The poll does not break down those 18% undecided exactly, but more conservative voters are undecided than liberal ones. More Republican voters are undecided than Democrats. More white voters are undecided than black. It is highly likely those undecided voters lean Republican. It's not impossible Espy improves a little on his 2018 performance or that he gets close to what Hood did last year, but I think it's very unlikely Democrats win such an inflexible state. Mississippi is one of the least elastic states out there.

I think black voters in the South historically don't show up at the polls well. If the like for Espy pulls them while the disdain for Trump pushes them, they could close that gap being that 38% of the population in Mississippi is black.
 

Tangmo

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What makes a wave election the wave is that very many challengers win by 1% percent.

It's not that every wave winner wins by 10% as only a few get that kind of magic that sprinkles down onto 'em. Or even that most successful wave challengers win by 8% or some other astronomical figure.

It is instead that the incumbent who is ahead by 2% is vulnerable as all hell and more likely than not to get bounced. When an incumbent is behind by 2% s/he knows to start some very under the radar job hunting.
 

chuckiechan

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I believe there is a vast pool of voters who want anarchists running amok in their cities and neighborhoods. What’s not to love?
 

Tangmo

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I don't think that particular race is as close as that poll margin would imply. 18% undecided is an awful lot. The poll does not break down those 18% undecided exactly, but more conservative voters are undecided than liberal ones. More Republican voters are undecided than Democrats. More white voters are undecided than black. It is highly likely those undecided voters lean Republican. It's not impossible Espy improves a little on his 2018 performance or that he gets close to what Hood did last year, but I think it's very unlikely Democrats win such an inflexible state. Mississippi is one of the least elastic states out there.

There's a very valid reason a large number of undecideds are very bad news to the incumbent.

It rarely matters who the undecideds are because of the very fact they are undecided.

It's unusual the undecideds break for the incumbent. Very unusual in fact.

Any incumbent not 5+ points ahead consistently throughout the campaign would be right to lose the little sleep time the incumbent gets. Shaking up the campaign staff and organization rarely changes anything. It's about the incumbent period and it's not good for the incumbent and the incumbent's party.

An incumbent with a money advantage and name recognition who has a large number of undecideds needs to get a rain dance going for election day.

An incumbent Republican in trouble in Mississippi says a lot about the color blue and about water that takes the shape of a wave. Cause it's not only happening in Mississippi.
 

calamity

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Mississippi Senate race between Mike Espy and Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith has a slight 41% to 40% lead over Democratic challenger Mike Espy in a poll released Monday morning by the Tyson Group.​
The same pollster had Hyde-Smith up on Espy 54% to 28% in March.​
The Tyson Group recently conducted polls in Gulf Coast states for the Consumer Energy Alliance on the issue of offshore drilling. FiveThirtyEight, which rates national pollsters, gives Tyson a B/C grade.​

538 Mississippi senate polling
I caught wind of this last night listening to the Lincoln Project. I must admit, it surprised me.
 

ALiberalModerate

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I don't think that particular race is as close as that poll margin would imply. 18% undecided is an awful lot. The poll does not break down those 18% undecided exactly, but more conservative voters are undecided than liberal ones. More Republican voters are undecided than Democrats. More white voters are undecided than black. It is highly likely those undecided voters lean Republican. It's not impossible Espy improves a little on his 2018 performance or that he gets close to what Hood did last year, but I think it's very unlikely Democrats win such an inflexible state. Mississippi is one of the least elastic states out there.
I agree with all this, and I can't imagine Mississippi flipping, but typically undecideds break against an incumbent.
 

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I agree with all this, and I can't imagine Mississippi flipping, but typically undecideds break against an incumbent.

There are circumstances where undecideds typically break against an incumbent. I don't think this is one of them. Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed and is one of the last prominent senators. There are probably a significant number of Mississippians who don't really have a view of her. And in this same poll Trump is up 10 and over 50%. So to believe the undecided voters will break for Espy in an amount that has him winning, you have to believe in an awful lot of Trump-Espy voters. More than I would imagine there are.
 

chuckiechan

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There's a very valid reason a large number of undecideds are very bad news to the incumbent.

It rarely matters who the undecideds are because of the very fact they are undecided.

It's unusual the undecideds break for the incumbent. Very unusual in fact.

Any incumbent not 5+ points ahead consistently throughout the campaign would be right to lose the little sleep time the incumbent gets. Shaking up the campaign staff and organization rarely changes anything. It's about the incumbent period and it's not good for the incumbent and the incumbent's party.

An incumbent with a money advantage and name recognition who has a large number of undecideds needs to get a rain dance going for election day.

An incumbent Republican in trouble in Mississippi says a lot about the color blue and about water that takes the shape of a wave. Cause it's not only happening in Mississippi.
You have to understand that this time of the year its all push polling, paid for by PAC’s to show their efforts are working and “spend more on us!” As we approach election day, they begin to merge like a school of fish. The important internal polls are kept secret.
It really is a waste of time to make predictions this far out.
 

Patriotic Voter

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You have to understand that this time of the year its all push polling, paid for by PAC’s to show their efforts are working and “spend more on us!” As we approach election day, they begin to merge like a school of fish. The important internal polls are kept secret. It really is a waste of time to make predictions this far out.

Election Day is only 6 weeks away. Is that really far out?
 

Tangmo

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You have to understand that this time of the year its all push polling, paid for by PAC’s to show their efforts are working and “spend more on us!” As we approach election day, they begin to merge like a school of fish. The important internal polls are kept secret.
It really is a waste of time to make predictions this far out.

First accept that I know I'm sticking my neck out to say blue and wave in the same breath. Six weeks out may as well be six years. A hellovalot more is going to occur, the debates especially and in particular, and this sucker is going to get very wild.

The bottom line is that the wilder it gets the better for bromide Joe and I don't say bromide negatively. The vast majority of Americans want the next four years to be defined by peace and calm coming out of the White House and Washington. Relatively anyway.

This translates into the voters putting the Democrats in charge of everything. Voters know the D's would run the show for two years until the midterm in 2022, then take things from there, so any perceived risk factor of Harris is not seen as being great. It's only this week that I am saying blue and wave because the polling is breaking as we move to the cusp of October, the breaking is showing Republican candidates starting to go under, and it's occurring across the board from the east coast to Iowa to Arizona to include Georgia where Biden and Trump are tied exactly.

It's reminiscent of 1992 when voters wrote off GHW from early on and went with the other guy who turned out to be Counterfeit Bill. This time voters know the other guy and they'll take him no problem.
 

poweRob

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Election Day is only 6 weeks away. Is that really far out?

You have to understand that this time of the year its all push polling, paid for by PAC’s to show their efforts are working and “spend more on us!” As we approach election day, they begin to merge like a school of fish. The important internal polls are kept secret.
It really is a waste of time to make predictions this far out.

Your desperation has you scrambling for excuses now I see. All polls at this point are "push polls"? :LOL:
 

grip

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I think the Dems will mop the floor this cycle with the GOP. They'll probably retain the House, slightly win the Senate, and potentially take the Presidency. The Republicans are way underestimating the public's disappointment with current events. Hell, I blame the conservatives for much of the protesting and resulting riots.

Trump's bragging is getting old and meaningless to those who aren't investors.
 

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I agree with all this, and I can't imagine Mississippi flipping, but typically undecideds break against an incumbent.
If Missisipi flips, I will be amazed. I would not be suprised if the Democrats get one of the ones that they shouldn't have flipped though.
 

ALiberalModerate

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If Missisipi flips, I will be amazed. I would not be suprised if the Democrats get one of the ones that they shouldn't have flipped though.

I think Kansas is the most likely - unlikely flip.
 

ALiberalModerate

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I thought Kansas was reliably red. What changed?

For the presidency, it is reliably red. However, our current governor is a Democrat. Our congressman in my district, who lives about 200 feet from me, is a Democrat. The senate race is neck and neck right now.
 

Patriotic Voter

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For the presidency, it is reliably red. However, our current governor is a Democrat. Our congressman in my district, who lives about 200 feet from me, is a Democrat. The senate race is neck and neck right now.

I guess that makes it a purple state.
 
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