A.I. Expert Says Automation Could Replace 40% of Jobs in 15 Years

[James972]

it's gotten worse for about 200 million.

insanity of course??How can it get worse when 60 million starved to death under libsocialism??

 

[James972]

Today most American families are worse off than similar families from the 1960's and 1970's despite most intact modern families having two wage earners rather than just one.

This is because liberals attacked love and family in America with their divorce, feminist, abortion, anti christian, union school, resilient kids myth, and school to prison pipeline. It turns out you don't get good job training in prison. Do you understand?

 

[James972]

This will get worse as more workers are displaced by AI mediated automation.

people have been getting replaced for 1000 years and still we have 97% employment. Your socialist handlers want you to use better arguments that are at least plausible. What is your communist solution to AI?? This should be good

 

[Evilroddy]

total BS of course Chinese now buy more cars than Americans so we know that capitalism is distributing wealth very well You will always look silly when arguing as a liberal.

Car ownership per thousand persons: China 173/1000, (2018), USA 910/1000 (2016). Not BS at all.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[James972]

Car ownership per thousand persons: China 173/1000, (2018), USA 910/1000 (2016). Not BS at all.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

no idea what your point is???

 

[UtahBill]

Yeah, well, I'm not overly optimistic about self-driving trucks becoming prominent quite that fast.

I wonder how those self-driving trucks will handle winter storms....

 

[Masterhawk]

The claim that machines will replace our jobs isn't as new as one might think. Back during the industrial revolution, there was a group of textile workers called luddites who destroyed textile machinery. These people did so out of protest because they feared that textile machinery would replace well paying textile jobs with lower paying jobs (it would require less skill to operate the machinery than to craft clothes by hand). It reminds me of the tale of John Henry. In it, Henry, a free black man, is in a race to drill a tunnel before a drilling machine can do the same. He is successful but dies shortly after due to exhaustion.

The industrial revolution as a whole replaced many jobs with machinery. The invention of new farming equipment from the British agricultural revolution such as the seed drill, dutch plough, and the threshing machine allowed for the same amount of food to be grown with less manpower. This may have been one of the causes of the industrial revolution as it freed up labor for other sectors. When cars became prominent during the 20th century, it put most horse related occupations out of business (of course, it also increased the demand for manufacturing cars). The industrial revolution didn't lead to mass unemployment. Rather, it freed up the labor force for other areas. It did however lead to people moving from the countryside to the cities because that was where the new jobs were being created.

Because of these things, there is very little reason to presume that automation will lead to mass unemployment.

 

[James972]

The claim that machines will replace our jobs isn't as new as one might think..

There were some liberals who thought the invention of the wheel would kill off 99% of the jobs on earth. 10,000 years of new inventions latter we still have 96% employment.

 

[Masterhawk]

There were some liberals who thought the invention of the wheel would kill off 99% of the jobs on earth. 10,000 years of new inventions latter we still have 96% employment.

There were some liberals who thought the invention of the wheel would kill off 99% of the jobs on earth. 10,000 years of new inventions latter we still have 96% employment.

Fun fact: Roman Emperor Vespasian once banned an innovation that would have required less labor due to the fear that it would take away jobs. During the Renaissance, there were quite a few new technologies developed which were barely used during the classical era. Unemployment was low beforehand due to the black death causing a labor shortage. Unemployment began increasing due to population growth and the decreasing availability of land for subsistence farming. Due to the fear of losing their jobs, many working individuals opposed these new technologies and European governments intervened on their behalf. Guilds were formed to keep technology from advancing.

This all began to change after the Glorious Revolution. Great Britain began to allow these inventions to boost domestic production in keeping with mercantilism (this is perhaps why Great Britain was the first country to industrialize). Not everyone was happy with this policy and this is where the luddites came in.

 

[James972]

China's growth is at about 6% and Indias is about 7% but both are slowing.

slowing, is not imploding!!!!!!!!!! We'd love to implode at 7%a year. Do you understand?

 

[James972]

Worse still much of that growth is due to financial speculation and is not making it into the hands of labourers

worse still than imploding at 6% GDP growth per year??
financial speculation?? China buys more cars than we do. There is noting more real than that!!

 

[Evilroddy]

slowing, is not imploding!!!!!!!!!! We'd love to implode at 7%a year. Do you understand?

worse still than imploding at 6% GDP growth per year??
financial speculation?? China buys more cars than we do. There is noting more real than that!!

James972:

China needs fast growth in order to stay politically stable. If growth slows too much more then there will be discontent directed at the centrally managed state-capitalist managers and entrepreneurs and such discontent will tigger crack downs. If the discontent gets too loud and is difficult to suppress then China may step back from capitalism or may get into a military conflict to lower surplus labour through mobilisation and conflict and to force loyalty during a national crisis. If such a conflict involves the USA directly or indirectly then a much more severe trade war or sanctions/blockades could tank a fair chunk of the global economy. If China retreats from capitalism and private ownership then that too could really hurt global markets. So super-charged growth is essential for China's near future.

As to cars, see my earlier post.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[James972]

China needs fast growth in order to stay politically stable.

you lied and said there was no growth, it was just financial maneuvering, now you know better what Republican capitalism has done to eliminate 40% of the planets poverty! Are you a Republican capitalist now?

 

[Evilroddy]

you lied and said there was no growth, it was just financial maneuvering, now you know better what Republican capitalism has done to eliminate 40% of the planets poverty! Are you a Republican capitalist now?

James972:

No. I said growth was slowing, now to about 6% per annum. Nowhere did I say there was no economic growth in China. Perhaps you should reread the thread before making such incorrect and inflammatory accusations about what others say to you. In the mean time please stop being such a .... well the phrase 'troops, weapons and tactics' comes to mind.

No cheers for you.
Evilroddy.

 

[James972]

James972:

No. I said growth was slowing, now to about 6% per annum.

you implied there was no growth, just financial speculation and wealth was not making into the hands of the worker.

then I taught you that 800,000,0000 workers had just jumped up into the middle class. You have to start over on China and as a typical liberal, most things . Sorry, don't mean to discourage you!

 

[Evilroddy]

you implied there was no growth, just financial speculation and wealth was not making into the hands of the worker.

then I taught you that 800,000,0000 workers had just jumped up into the middle class. You have to start over on China and as a typical liberal, most things . Sorry, don't mean to discourage you!

James972:

So China has more elevated workers than there are human beings on Earth? If you want to have an academic debate on economics you really have to stop making up data.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[James972]

James972:

So China has more elevated workers than there are human beings on Earth? If you want to have an academic debate on economics you really have to stop making up data.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

obviously 800 million...nitpicking because the liberal cant debate??

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

That's why police forces are militarising all around the world and why militaries are putting more and more resources into urban warfare training. They are preparing for the implosion of traditional capitalism or corporatism due to a lack of labour-generated income and thus a collapse of consumer aggregate demand. There's no point producing goods and services for profit if almost everybody in a population cannot afford to buy them.

Cheers?
Evilroddy.

Not actually funny, but almost "funny" in a sinister and cynical way:
The notion that militarized police forces will hold back MILLIONS of desperate people somehow, all to protect the safety and security of a handful of billionaires.

I'm trying to think of any examples where the royals summoned the praetorian guards to protect them from the masses, and the masses just silently and obediently slunk away.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Because of these things, there is very little reason to presume that automation will lead to mass unemployment.

See: SQUALOR IN CITY SLUM TENEMENTS

Further reading:

"The Jungle" by Upton Sinclair

If ever there was a time when America would turn to socialism or communism, it would have been in the 1930's when capitalism failed almost completely. As a result, however, The New Deal infused some minor but essential socialist tweaks into the capitalist system with the resulting hybrid creating the highest standard of living for Americans in all of recorded history.

Boasting of full employment is meaningless if most of the said "employment" consists of jobs at subsistence wages and a cost of living that puts the basics out of reach. Advanced robotics and AI, and the resulting technological unemployment which is sure to follow will not be just an AMERICAN problem, it will be a GLOBAL one.

It will not just impact the American economy, it will impact the entire world.

 

[Evilroddy]

obviously 800 million...nitpicking because the liberal cant debate??

James972:

That's why we provide references for our facts, in order that others can check them. Where is your reference for 800,000,000 Chinese raised up from poverty?

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Evilroddy]

Not actually funny, but almost "funny" in a sinister and cynical way:
The notion that militarized police forces will hold back MILLIONS of desperate people somehow, all to protect the safety and security of a handful of billionaires.

I'm trying to think of any examples where the royals summoned the praetorian guards to protect them from the masses, and the masses just silently and obediently slunk away.

View attachment 67250202

CBS:

Since this an American debating forum the Bonus Army March suppression by Douglas MacArthur and George Patton in 1932 comes to mind. 43,000 WWI veterans and their families peacefully marched on Washington DC in the depths of the Great Depression and set up camps there. The US Government's eventual response was to gas them with Adamsite (a much worse chemical weapon than CS gas) and to attack them with Renault FT-17 tanks under the command of a future American hero. The marchers were shot, bayoneted, gassed, overrun, dispersed and driven away and many were killed and wounded including the elderly, women and children.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...troops-to-attack-them/?utm_term=.b3a940426a73

When Patton Rolled Tanks Over Veterans in Washington, D.C. | War Is Boring

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

CBS:

Since this an American debating forum the Bonus Army March suppression by Douglas MacArthur and George Patton in 1932 comes to mind. 43,000 WWI veterans and their families peacefully marched on Washington DC in the depths of the Great Depression and set up camps there. The US Government's eventual response was to gas them with Adamsite (a much worse chemical weapon than CS gas) and to attack them with Renault FT-17 tanks under the command of a future American hero. The marchers were shot, bayoneted, gassed, overrun, dispersed and driven away and many were killed and wounded including the elderly, women and children.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...troops-to-attack-them/?utm_term=.b3a940426a73

When Patton Rolled Tanks Over Veterans in Washington, D.C. | War Is Boring

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Yes, absolutely right, and it is something my wife thinks of all the time, like every time some asshole like Trump talks about privatizing or abolishing the VA. However one must also recall the eventual outcome of "The Bonus March".
It proved politically disastrous for Hoover, and it is considered a contributing factor to his losing the 1932 election in a landslide to Franklin D. Roosevelt.
The FDR administration set up a special camp for the marchers at Fort Hunt, Virginia, providing forty field kitchens serving three meals a day, bus transportation to and from the capital, and entertainment in the form of military bands.
The end result was passage of The Adjusted Compensation Payment Act, a two billion dollar bond to compensate wounded veterans which would mature in 1945.

 

[Evilroddy]

Yes, absolutely right, and it is something my wife thinks of all the time, like every time some asshole like Trump talks about privatizing or abolishing the VA. However one must also recall the eventual outcome of "The Bonus March".
It proved politically disastrous for Hoover, and it is considered a contributing factor to his losing the 1932 election in a landslide to Franklin D. Roosevelt.
The FDR administration set up a special camp for the marchers at Fort Hunt, Virginia, providing forty field kitchens serving three meals a day, bus transportation to and from the capital, and entertainment in the form of military bands.
The end result was passage of The Adjusted Compensation Payment Act, a two billion dollar bond to compensate wounded veterans which would mature in 1945.

CHS:

All that would have never happened if the 1933 assassination attempt or the 1933-34 Business Plot had removed FDR from power. It was touch and go there for a while and fascism almost won out in America in the early 1930's. Most Americans are not even aware of these events.

But happily a good outcome prevailed despite the brutality of the Hoover Regime. That brutality and cynical exercise of power still lies waiting under the veneer of American civil society and massive structural unemployment caused by AI mediated machine labour and off-shoring of labour to lower wage markets may very well rip the veneer open again as it did in 1877, 1932, 1942, the mid 1950's, 1963, 1968, ... the present day.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Masterhawk]

See: SQUALOR IN CITY SLUM TENEMENTS

Further reading:

"The Jungle" by Upton Sinclair

If ever there was a time when America would turn to socialism or communism, it would have been in the 1930's when capitalism failed almost completely. As a result, however, The New Deal infused some minor but essential socialist tweaks into the capitalist system with the resulting hybrid creating the highest standard of living for Americans in all of recorded history.

Boasting of full employment is meaningless if most of the said "employment" consists of jobs at subsistence wages and a cost of living that puts the basics out of reach. Advanced robotics and AI, and the resulting technological unemployment which is sure to follow will not be just an AMERICAN problem, it will be a GLOBAL one.

It will not just impact the American economy, it will impact the entire world.

There are various explanations for why the great depression happened. Keynesians believe that it was caused due to a reduction in capital investment while monetarists believe that it was caused by a fall in the money supply. Austrians see it as being the federal reserve's doing while marxists share your viewpoint that it was the inevitable collapse of the capitalist model.

As for full employment being useless if the wages are very low, that is somewhat true (you really need to look at purchasing power which is the cost of goods compared to wages). However, this is not what we are seeing. STEM jobs are on the rise and they pay well when compared to jobs on average.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

There are various explanations for why the great depression happened. Keynesians believe that it was caused due to a reduction in capital investment while monetarists believe that it was caused by a fall in the money supply. Austrians see it as being the federal reserve's doing while marxists share your viewpoint that it was the inevitable collapse of the capitalist model.

As for full employment being useless if the wages are very low, that is somewhat true (you really need to look at purchasing power which is the cost of goods compared to wages). However, this is not what we are seeing. STEM jobs are on the rise and they pay well when compared to jobs on average.

A cop out like "the inevitable collapse of the model" is like saying that a person can no longer walk due to "neuropathy", which is a "cop out" blanket diagnosis with no real medical meaning. The term "neuropathy" is a combination of "neuro" and "path", which literally means, "sick nerves", thus the patient cannot walk because they have sick nerves, which is meaningless.

If investment pulls out en masse in an economy, the money supply begins to shrink. If this happens on a grand scale, it shrinks dramatically and the resulting indicators will set off a panic. That's at the top. But ordinary people aren't the ones who see it first like those at the top, they just know that they're losing their jobs.
The Fed can almost always take remedial steps, yes? They didn't. They kept interest rates steady, and made no moves on the money supply itself to provide more available liquid reserves. Milton Friedman is on record as endorsing that bit of hindsight, thus it can be safely said that there was no one single cause for the Depression.

I try not to rely on a single political view on complex issues like this, because the dogma would force me to continue being a man with a hammer who sees everything as a nail.

In the end, the explanation for the cause of the Great Depression doesn't matter much for the people hit hardest. For them, it was spelled out in two words: Capitalism failed. And yet somehow we stood by it. There's no marxism in that at all, the marxists were held at bay. People who struggle in factories don't have time for marxism, they just have time to work and sleep. When I say that capitalism failed, it's an observation by the people who would be staring failure in the face, not a marxist theory. It's like saying "the engine in my car blew up".

Yes agreed, STEM jobs are maybe the one really bright spot in the economy, but if the economy is a body, it's a beautiful face on a starving torso, with broken knees and ankles, and bed sores. Those knees and ankles are the "jobs on average", and states like California have a healthy contingent of STEM workers, a vast swath of "average jobs" that include name tags or hair nets, not much in between, and a lot of housing that is STEM priced.

States in the heartland have a lot of those name tag and hair net jobs. Not everyone can be in STEM jobs. We have to make stuff, we have to build, we have to do all of the things that make civilization function. No such thing as an economy where everyone is a scientist, engineer, or a CEO or a day trader, and we can't all just sell insurance to each other either.
The bottom rung can't live the rich life but it has to be healthy and robust, otherwise it becomes a bed sore which infects the rest of the body after a while.

PS: You know the funny thing about Upton Sinclair is, he bemoaned the public reaction to his book.
In the end the biggest effect he had was on food and drug safety and that was not his intention.

He remarked, "I aimed at the public's heart, and by accident I hit it in the stomach."