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Arctic ice minimum to max out at 3.5 million square kilometers this year, 1.2 million sq. km. more than last year.
I can see why people are saying that the Arctic will be ice free in summer in a few years. Draw a straight line through the successive minimums since satellite observations were started and it looks like it could happen. Last year the minimum was down to 2.2 million sq. km. whereas it has has averaged about 4.7 million sq. km. between now and 1970. Just a little more...
Unfortunately for those who'd like to sail in a straight line between Prudhoe Bay and Murmansk these things often don't trend in straight lines, and we don't have enough observations to know what the natural cyclic trends are in the ice extent.
I can see why people are saying that the Arctic will be ice free in summer in a few years. Draw a straight line through the successive minimums since satellite observations were started and it looks like it could happen. Last year the minimum was down to 2.2 million sq. km. whereas it has has averaged about 4.7 million sq. km. between now and 1970. Just a little more...
Unfortunately for those who'd like to sail in a straight line between Prudhoe Bay and Murmansk these things often don't trend in straight lines, and we don't have enough observations to know what the natural cyclic trends are in the ice extent.