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A Climate Science Headline You Won't See: Arctic Ice Minimum to Max Out...

LowDown

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Arctic ice minimum to max out at 3.5 million square kilometers this year, 1.2 million sq. km. more than last year.

I can see why people are saying that the Arctic will be ice free in summer in a few years. Draw a straight line through the successive minimums since satellite observations were started and it looks like it could happen. Last year the minimum was down to 2.2 million sq. km. whereas it has has averaged about 4.7 million sq. km. between now and 1970. Just a little more...

Unfortunately for those who'd like to sail in a straight line between Prudhoe Bay and Murmansk these things often don't trend in straight lines, and we don't have enough observations to know what the natural cyclic trends are in the ice extent.
 

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Arctic ice minimum to max out at 3.5 million square kilometers this year, 1.2 million sq. km. more than last year.

I can see why people are saying that the Arctic will be ice free in summer in a few years. Draw a straight line through the successive minimums since satellite observations were started and it looks like it could happen. Last year the minimum was down to 2.2 million sq. km. whereas it has has averaged about 4.7 million sq. km. between now and 1970. Just a little more...

Unfortunately for those who'd like to sail in a straight line between Prudhoe Bay and Murmansk these things often don't trend in straight lines, and we don't have enough observations to know what the natural cyclic trends are in the ice extent.
Up until now the hand waving alarmist have only threatened out wallets.
The Chinese are trying to send ships through the arctic route, hoping the ice will allow a container ship to pass.
Chinese ship first to sail through Arctic on Northeastern Passage | Marketplace.org
Based on the article's 23 day schedule, it should have arrived in Rotterdam, Holland around Sept 5, I hope they made it through!
 

longview

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Up until now the hand waving alarmist have only threatened out wallets.
The Chinese are trying to send ships through the arctic route, hoping the ice will allow a container ship to pass.
Chinese ship first to sail through Arctic on Northeastern Passage | Marketplace.org
Based on the article's 23 day schedule, it should have arrived in Rotterdam, Holland around Sept 5, I hope they made it through!

Good news!
It looks like the first ship has made it through.
First Chinese cargo ship nears end of Northeast Passage transit - FT.com

First Chinese cargo ship nears end of Northeast Passage transit - FT.com

From a passenger
“It’s early days,” added Gary Li, a senior maritime analyst with IHS in Beijing. “The Northern Sea Route probably needs another 20 or 30 years of climate change to make it fully viable. And even then, it’s got so many constraints.”

Even in August, ice remains a danger.

Koji Sekimizu, secretary-general of the UN’ International Maritime Organisation, recently travelled one-third of the passage, sailing the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas aboard the 50 Let Pobedy, a nuclear-powered Russian icebreaker. Without escorts by icebreakers, no more than five of which are available in the Russian arctic, transits are not possible.

“Most of the voyage was free of ice,” Mr Sekimizu told the Financial Times. ‘But northeast of the Kara Sea, in the narrow channel [leading to the Laptev sea], you could see plenty of ice. That area was packed. It took one day to get through.” The channel, just north of the Taymyr Peninsula, marks the most northerly point of the Eurasian land mass.
 

Deuce

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Arctic ice minimum to max out at 3.5 million square kilometers this year, 1.2 million sq. km. more than last year.

I can see why people are saying that the Arctic will be ice free in summer in a few years. Draw a straight line through the successive minimums since satellite observations were started and it looks like it could happen. Last year the minimum was down to 2.2 million sq. km. whereas it has has averaged about 4.7 million sq. km. between now and 1970. Just a little more...

Unfortunately for those who'd like to sail in a straight line between Prudhoe Bay and Murmansk these things often don't trend in straight lines, and we don't have enough observations to know what the natural cyclic trends are in the ice extent.

Then why are you basing this thread off a single year's observations?
 

longview

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Arctic ice minimum to max out at 3.5 million square kilometers this year, 1.2 million sq. km. more than last year.

I can see why people are saying that the Arctic will be ice free in summer in a few years. Draw a straight line through the successive minimums since satellite observations were started and it looks like it could happen. Last year the minimum was down to 2.2 million sq. km. whereas it has has averaged about 4.7 million sq. km. between now and 1970. Just a little more...

Unfortunately for those who'd like to sail in a straight line between Prudhoe Bay and Murmansk these things often don't trend in straight lines, and we don't have enough observations to know what the natural cyclic trends are in the ice extent.
Very cool graph, by the way.
I looks like the low hits around Sept 10 +- a few days.
Part of my own issue with the alarmist, is the lack of working parts of the AGW Hypothesis.
How is the Co2 connected to the forcing? (actual quantum energy bands cm-1)
What is the latency of the effect of added Co2, seconds or years?
 

Deuce

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Very cool graph, by the way.
I looks like the low hits around Sept 10 +- a few days.
Part of my own issue with the alarmist, is the lack of working parts of the AGW Hypothesis.
How is the Co2 connected to the forcing? (actual quantum energy bands cm-1)
What is the latency of the effect of added Co2, seconds or years?

It's actually a really terrible graph for showing a trend. Here's a better one.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordp...olumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?<?php echo time() ?
 

longview

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It's actually a really terrible graph for showing a trend. Here's a better one.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordp...olumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?<?php echo time() ?
Maybe you did not try out some of the interactive features of the graph.
The ability to see high and low points, and compare those features for different years, with the data points active,
places LowDown's graph leaps and bounds above the one you presented.
Showing a trend is important, but not as good as showing the complete data set in a viewable form.
 

Deuce

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Maybe you did not try out some of the interactive features of the graph.
The ability to see high and low points, and compare those features for different years, with the data points active,
places LowDown's graph leaps and bounds above the one you presented.
Showing a trend is important, but not as good as showing the complete data set in a viewable form.

The extra data is nice, I completely agree, but still terrible at displaying a trend. Which is why I said it was terrible for displaying a trend.
 

longview

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The extra data is nice, I completely agree, but still terrible at displaying a trend. Which is why I said it was terrible for displaying a trend.
Your argument strikes at the crux of how the AGW discussions are conducted.
LowDown presented a very good interactive graph on Arctic surface sea ice,
showing seasonal changes and year to year changes.
His graph allows an Science educated person to parse and reduce the data to look for
trends in Surface Sea Ice on their own.
You counter with "But Wait, I have a static Graph which shows a much more alarming
trend in the volume of Arctic sea ice.
Surface and volume are related, but are different discussions.
At 32 years, both data sets are of limited use in saying anything about Man's effect
on our climate, or weather the ebb and flow of Sea ice is outside the normal curve.
 
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