538's Current Electoral College Map (where we stand pre-2nd debate)

[BrotherFease]

I decided to take a break from looking at RCP and now looking at 538. Here's where we stand today:

Biden has an 88% chance of winning the electoral college. Trump stands at 12%. In the popular vote, we have Biden at 53.5% to Trump's 45.3%.

Now lets look at the swing states aka states with less than a 7% advantage on either side:

Arizona (11) and Florida (29) - 3.1% in favor of Biden
Georgia (16) - .2% in favor of Trump
Iowa (6) - 1.3% in favor of Trump
Nevada (6) - 6.9% in favor of Biden
North Carolina (15) - 2.6% in favor of Biden
Ohio (18) - Tied
Penn - (20) - 5.9% in favor of Biden
Wisconsin (10) - 6.7% in favor of Biden
Texas (38) - 3% in favor of Trump

Michigan (16) and Minnesota (10) are labeled as swing states by RCP. 538 currently has Michigan with an 8.1% advantage for Biden and a 92% chance of winning. Minnesota has a 7.4% advantage for Biden and a 90% chance of winning.

As it stands today, Biden is projected to win roughly 333 electoral college votes to Trump's 185.

So far, I have yet to see any real shifts here. Pretty much the same electoral college projections: Biden is going to win somewhere in the 300 range, Trump is unlikely to win most of the swing states. That's been the narrative for a long time. Lets see how the debate shapes out. Will we see those late-deciders break toward Trump and see a more even match.

 

[swing_voter]

That's a sizeable victory. It's a humiliating defeat for Trump.

The nation and the Constitution need Trump to suffer a humiliating defeat.

 

[Jay59]

As has been noted many times, Trump is ahead of 2016 in the battlegrounds. that said, Biden's negatives are not as high as Clinton's and his polling edge nationally is larger. Two primary differences are the third party candidates, serious factors in 2016, have faded back and Trump has a great deal more money to use. Though much has been made of Biden's fund raising, Hillary's was much better.

Ahead of the second debate, one gets a sense that the lead is made of sugar and rain is predicted.

 

[BrotherFease]

As has been noted many times, Trump is ahead of 2016 in the battlegrounds. that said, Biden's negatives are not as high as Clinton's and his polling edge nationally is larger. Two primary differences are the third party candidates, serious factors in 2016, have faded back and Trump has a great deal more money to use. Though much has been made of Biden's fund raising, Hillary's was much better.

Ahead of the second debate, one gets a sense that the lead is made of sugar and rain is predicted.

I am not ruling out the undecided voters breaking for Trump, but it should be noted Trump doesn't have any of his advantages he had in 2016. He is losing among key demographics and no longer in the challenger spot.

Biden is ahead of Trump in fundraising and has been setting fundraising records.

More people watched the Democratic convention than the Republican convention. More people watched Biden's townhall than Trump's townhall.

 

[Jay59]

I am not ruling out the undecided voters breaking for Trump, but it should be noted Trump doesn't have any of his advantages he had in 2016. He is losing among key demographics and no longer in the challenger spot.

What advantages? He was an unknown getting serious push from the Libertarians. The entire campaign was on a shoestring

Biden is ahead of Trump in fundraising and has been setting fundraising records.

In 2016, trump had far less money and no organization. Clinton had more money than Biden and a sense of inevitability

More people watched the Democratic convention than the Republican convention. More people watched Biden's townhall than Trump's townhall.

People know Trump. Biden is largely unknown.

The sense of a big lead eroding is very much like in 2016. The difference is that we know that the lead can be illusory, or disappear completely.

 

[Greenbeard]

Worth remembering that 41 million votes have already been cast.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Worth remembering that 41 million votes have already been cast.

And most of them are for Joe Biden/Kamala Harris.

 

[BrotherFease]

People know Trump. Biden is largely unknown.

Biden was in the Senate between 1973 and 2009. He was Vice President for 8 years. He's also won the 2020 Democratic primary.

Yeah, Biden is such an unknown.

 

[Ikari]

Well 2 weeks and we'll know. We'll see what we get for "debates" tomorrow.

 

[BrotherFease]

Worth remembering that 41 million votes have already been cast.

NY starts their early voting on Saturday. I suspect more than 50% of the country will have voted before November.

Still, what about those last minute people? I think the longer people wait, the more likely they are going to vote for Biden. I suspect the late breakers are going to go for Biden here.

 

[TomFitz]

That's a sizeable victory. It's a humiliating defeat for Trump.

The nation and the Constitution need Trump to suffer a humiliating defeat.

It will be a sizable victory if that’s the way it turns out.

I examined it, and it appears to be likely.

However, another inside straight is not imposssible.

 

[TomFitz]

NY starts their early voting on Saturday. I suspect more than 50% of the country will have voted before November.

Still, what about those last minute people? I think the longer people wait, the more likely they are going to vote for Biden. I suspect the late breakers are going to go for Biden here.

I was just on my FB page.

All my GOP and right wing friends and political acquaintances are voting on election day.

The Dems and liberals in my group have already voted for the most part (including me).

 

[ReubenSherr]

I decided to take a break from looking at RCP and now looking at 538. Here's where we stand today:

Biden has an 88% chance of winning the electoral college. Trump stands at 12%. In the popular vote, we have Biden at 53.5% to Trump's 45.3%.

Now lets look at the swing states aka states with less than a 7% advantage on either side:

Arizona (11) and Florida (29) - 3.1% in favor of Biden
Georgia (16) - .2% in favor of Trump
Iowa (6) - 1.3% in favor of Trump
Nevada (6) - 6.9% in favor of Biden
North Carolina (15) - 2.6% in favor of Biden
Ohio (18) - Tied
Penn - (20) - 5.9% in favor of Biden
Wisconsin (10) - 6.7% in favor of Biden
Texas (38) - 3% in favor of Trump

Michigan (16) and Minnesota (10) are labeled as swing states by RCP. 538 currently has Michigan with an 8.1% advantage for Biden and a 92% chance of winning. Minnesota has a 7.4% advantage for Biden and a 90% chance of winning.

As it stands today, Biden is projected to win roughly 333 electoral college votes to Trump's 185.

So far, I have yet to see any real shifts here. Pretty much the same electoral college projections: Biden is going to win somewhere in the 300 range, Trump is unlikely to win most of the swing states. That's been the narrative for a long time. Lets see how the debate shapes out. Will we see those late-deciders break toward Trump and see a more even match.

538 is Silver's prediction model. He uses his own weighting system. And BTW includes polls conducted by British polling firms. And Survey Monkey, which is a joke.

Interesting fact.

538 is controlled by ABC. The organization that, four years ago to date, showed Clinton up by 12 nationally.

 

[BrotherFease]

It will be a sizable victory if that’s the way it turns out.

I examined it, and it appears to be likely.

However, another inside straight is not imposssible.

It's far from over. Biden has about 216 electoral college votes in the bag so to speak. He needs 54 more to go. Right now, he's looking very good in Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn, which has almost entirely went in his favor.

We will see what happens at the debate tomorrow and if any scandals break out next week, which could impact the race.

 

[Slavister]

People know Trump.

That's exactly what we (Biden voters) are banking on.

I think the longer people wait, the more likely they are going to vote for Biden.

What do you base that on? It's widely expected that many more Rs than Ds will vote on the election date. For undecided ones, why do you think they would break for Biden closer to election?

 

[Jay59]

And most of them are for Joe Biden/Kamala Harris.

Is that an assumption or do you have illicit information?

Biden was in the Senate between 1973 and 2009. He was Vice President for 8 years. He's also won the 2020 Democratic primary. Yeah, Biden is such an unknown.

Good. You understand. Being so anonymous at this late date is an achievement of sorts. It helps that he never did anything of note.

It will be a sizable victory if that’s the way it turns out. I examined it, and it appears to be likely.

It's possible to be sizeable either way.

However, another inside straight is not impossible.

Trump does not need to beat the odds. He just needs turnout. His base can swamp Biden's support and everyone paying attention knows it.

That's exactly what we (Biden voters) are banking on.

Yet, Trump still played almost even in the broadcast ratings and led the night in the aggregate.

[/QUOTE]What do you base that on? It's widely expected that many more Rs than Ds will vote on the election date. For undecided ones, why do you think they would break for Biden closer to election?[/QUOTE]
About 75% of the voting population either love Trump or hate Trump. That leaves 25% who don't love Trump, but probably don't like him either. That means Biden will get the vote if he passes a sniff test. So far, that's a close call.

You say more Republicans than Democrats will vote. That's a bit of an understatement, maybe a big understatement.

 

[BrotherFease]

What do you base that on? It's widely expected that many more Rs than Ds will vote on the election date. For undecided ones, why do you think they would break for Biden closer to election?

Frank Luntz. He said the longer voters decide, the more likely they are to vote for the challenger.

 

[BrotherFease]

Good. You understand. Being so anonymous at this late date is an achievement of sorts. It helps that he never did anything of note.

That's a nice attempt at spinning. Your argument here is that more people watched Biden because he's unknown by the American people. I argued how he can be unknown, if he's been in the Senate for a long time, ran for President three times and was VP for 8 years? You presented a B.S excuse for why Trump's ratings were low.

 

[Jay59]

That's a nice attempt at spinning. Your argument here is that more people watched Biden because he's unknown by the American people.

That's it. He's been in hiding.

I argued how he can be unknown, if he's been in the Senate for a long time, ran for President three times and was VP for 8 years? You presented a B.S excuse for why Trump's ratings were low.

Why would anyone outside his home state know him past a name, a face and a few anecdotes.

He has name recognition, but that does not equate to any sense of understanding. Most people know he used his office to enrich his family and that he tends to fumble what he is saying. What they do not know is anything that would inspire confidence. In a very real sense, those who are not voting either for or against Trump do not know Joe Biden.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

I decided to take a break from looking at RCP and now looking at 538. Here's where we stand today:

Biden has an 88% chance of winning the electoral college. Trump stands at 12%. In the popular vote, we have Biden at 53.5% to Trump's 45.3%.

Now lets look at the swing states aka states with less than a 7% advantage on either side:

Arizona (11) and Florida (29) - 3.1% in favor of Biden
Georgia (16) - .2% in favor of Trump
Iowa (6) - 1.3% in favor of Trump
Nevada (6) - 6.9% in favor of Biden
North Carolina (15) - 2.6% in favor of Biden
Ohio (18) - Tied
Penn - (20) - 5.9% in favor of Biden
Wisconsin (10) - 6.7% in favor of Biden
Texas (38) - 3% in favor of Trump

Michigan (16) and Minnesota (10) are labeled as swing states by RCP. 538 currently has Michigan with an 8.1% advantage for Biden and a 92% chance of winning. Minnesota has a 7.4% advantage for Biden and a 90% chance of winning.

As it stands today, Biden is projected to win roughly 333 electoral college votes to Trump's 185.

So far, I have yet to see any real shifts here. Pretty much the same electoral college projections: Biden is going to win somewhere in the 300 range, Trump is unlikely to win most of the swing states. That's been the narrative for a long time. Lets see how the debate shapes out. Will we see those late-deciders break toward Trump and see a more even match.

If it's anything LESS than the 300 range, Trump will try like Hell to litigate the living sh*t out of it and ratf*ck the election.
He will still yell "RIGGED ELECTION!!!! even if Biden were to get 538 EC votes but anything over 300-350 and there is no chance he can litigate it.
Let him yell, it will be interesting to see if his voice goes up an octave when they slap the cuffs on him.

 

[Deuce]

I am not ruling out the undecided voters breaking for Trump, but it should be noted Trump doesn't have any of his advantages he had in 2016. He is losing among key demographics and no longer in the challenger spot.

Biden is ahead of Trump in fundraising and has been setting fundraising records.

More people watched the Democratic convention than the Republican convention. More people watched Biden's townhall than Trump's townhall.

"Undecideds" will definitely lean Trump, because most of them are just Trump voters lying about who they plan to vote for. More "independents" than not are just Republicans too embarrassed to call themselves these days.

Biden is favored, but only a fool would call it a lock.

 

[Deuce]

538 is Silver's prediction model. He uses his own weighting system. And BTW includes polls conducted by British polling firms. And Survey Monkey, which is a joke.

Interesting fact.

538 is controlled by ABC. The organization that, four years ago to date, showed Clinton up by 12 nationally.

Because "is British" makes something inherently less accurate?

538 rates SurveyMonkey a D-. Bias D+5. Did you know that?

 

[noonereal]

That's a sizeable victory. It's a humiliating defeat for Trump.

The nation and the Constitution need Trump to suffer a humiliating defeat.

Putin is gonna be pissed.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Biden was in the Senate between 1973 and 2009. He was Vice President for 8 years. He's also won the 2020 Democratic primary.

You are talking to a totally uneducated voter who worships the rattlesnake.

 

[noonereal]

That's it. He's been in hiding.


Why would anyone outside his home state know him past a name, a face and a few anecdotes.

He has name recognition, but that does not equate to any sense of understanding. Most people know he used his office to enrich his family and that he tends to fumble what he is saying. What they do not know is anything that would inspire confidence. In a very real sense, those who are not voting either for or against Trump do not know Joe Biden.

good post, lol