I really have difficulty seeing how capitalism and ever advancing technology will be able to co-exist in the future in such a way that most people will be able to provide well for themselves. AI could advance to the point one day where even professional jobs are being replaced.
Hope they're not doing the accounting one.
That's one of the fields on the chopping block.
Its those kinds of things that will go away though. Computers will do them.
Its going to be the creative and the extremely technically skilled who continue to prosper. And that's nowhere near everybody. Lots of people weren't born with the "chops".
I'm retired now but in a hard scrabble environment you will never replace a man on a horse to ride the fence line and babysit the scattered cattle. Unfortunately most Americans don't want this kind of work anymore so it will be illegals doing it for the most part.
No matter how much number crunching computers can do for us, at the end of it you still need a human to understand the results and make/advise a business decision. Classical accountancy where you write invoices and balance books might not be around much longer but knowledge of accounting will still going to be a key career skill for many people, for a long time.
I work in a field where we are often seen as 'replacing' people (machine learning, data/process automation). I can assure people that while it can seem like we kick people out of jobs, we create more opportunity for employment than remove it. It's down to the finance/HR people to decide whether they want to fill that opportunity with new hires.
As far as training goes, there are now hundreds of online resources where you can learn new skills that are being taken by young and old alike. From Harvard Computer Science courses to Financial Accounting at Wharton Business School. All for free. Even 60 year old postal clerks can do that (and make no mistake, some already are).
They already are being replaced.
For instance, there are surgeries that are done with computers and robotics.
This prediction is a frightening one for those of us at the age where we are not old enough to not work, but too old to retrain and start over.
I really have difficulty seeing how capitalism and ever advancing technology will be able to co-exist in the future in such a way that most people will be able to provide well for themselves. AI could advance to the point one day where even professional jobs are being replaced.
anyone actually believe that expansion of computing abilities is not going to eliminate the need for humans to do many of the activities that they are now earning income to perform?
it should be a given, whether it is a 50% job loss or not, whether it happens in 15 years or not
a portion of society will have good jobs operating the devices that perform so much work
but what about the rest of society, those without the aptitude to fulfill those high level positions
will the chasm between the elite and the poor grow even wider, and the ranks of the poor even more extensive
or will the majority at the polling booth insist that the wealth created by these machines be distributed for the benefit of society at large
that machines will displace employment should be given
how we respond to it seems a very open question
What does too old to retrain mean? I was teaching my 11 year old German Shepherd things until the day he died.
I'm glad I have a skill that can't be replaced by computers. Unless they learn to pick up a paint brush, camera or use PS and take into consideration what a client wants - I'm safe.
That's a German Shepard.
Have you ever tried teaching a Mexican Chihuahua to be a guard dog ?
No matter how much number crunching computers can do for us, at the end of it you still need a human to understand the results and make/advise a business decision. Classical accountancy where you write invoices and balance books might not be around much longer but knowledge of accounting will still going to be a key career skill for many people, for a long time.
...
while some of them will find alternative work, and some of that group will wind up in better positions, a great many will not have the aptitude to fulfill higher order job requirements...
There are quite a few companies that have "design online" features on their websites which allows customers to create their own artwork.
No job, including those that require artistic skills, are immune from technology.
True, but isn't there a human surgeon still operating them or is my info out of date?
Fortunately, there are answers, and ways to fix these issues without becoming either a welfare state or an empoverished nation and without communism or massive socialism.
Unfortunately, those who can only see the world for the way it was yesterday, are going to fight against the policies that we will need for tomorrows world. It will be an epic political battle, that will probably eventually be won to our best benefit, but only after much unneccesary suffering is caused by political ideologues who don't understand how the world around is is changing.
i can't agree enough with you on this point
but i wonder how long it will take for all those unemployed voters to wise up and vote for the candidates who are not going to initiate policies which are opposed to the unemployable's situation
for instance, the poorest and least educated in my state recently voted for and elected a senate candidate whose history as a local representative consisted of giving the rich tax breaks at the expense of short changing teachers and denying medicare to millions of citizens. they voted against their own interests - in droves. why should we expect that to change? while i am hopeful, recent history tells me my optimism is unrealistic
It's going to be strange riding my scoot down the slab when all of the semi trucks are driverless.
some in the accounting profession will remain as coaches to those who need to be able to learn what the numbers mean, but those bookkeepers whose activities will be performed digitally, what of them and their ability to earn incomes
ditto for bank tellers
and cashiers
receptionists and secretaries
pharmacists
truck drivers, cab drivers, and couriers
librarians
loan officers
real estate appraisers and brokers
retail clerks
teachers
widget makers
warehouse workers
macdonald's/fast-food order takers
car salesmen
and many, many more
while some of them will find alternative work, and some of that group will wind up in better positions, a great many will not have the aptitude to fulfill higher order job requirements
joblessness will be exponentially greater than what we are now experiencing, as those in middle class jobs performed by those with average IQs are without work in the not-too-distant future
for society, will that mean that their and their family's quality of life should be limited only because their ability to earn a living is impaired because of tech advances that have made them economic casualties
we have done a terrible job figuring out how to deal with underemployment today
the matter is not going to get better over time
I agree. But what we are going to see is a 100 person accounting department being gradually reduced to 1 person. that's 99 families that will no longer have an earned income.
Not only will they eventually become driverless, there will be far fewer trucks.
The trend these days is for products to be smaller, lighter, have less packaging, and to be multifunctional. Products can even be "virtual" and occupy no physical space, and can be transmitted electronically for free.
A bet a tractor trailer can hall a million smartphones. Those tiny smartphones are replacing watches, calculators, computers, notepads, envelopes, stamps, typewriters, computer printers, fax machines, credit cards, ID cards, filing cabinets, cameras, pedometers, heart rate monitors, "life alerts", stand alone GPS systems, maps, pens, home phones, televisions, games, and zillions of other products.
One truck will soon be able to carry the load of a hundred trucks.
So far, at least, the Massive Open Online Course (MOOCs) have not revolutionized higher education and training. Of course, with experience and learning-based changes, the technologies and approaches could improve, allowing for a larger impact.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/education/edlife/demystifying-the-mooc.html
What I can tell you is that if I hadn't done a MOOC I wouldn't have aced my job interview and got the job I have now. The point I wanted to make was that if you want to learn a new skill, the material is out there for you to succeed.
First off, I wasn't meaning to come across as an asshole, my apologies. Secondly, it is on a person to be a strong candidate for employment, having the necessary skills from the right era helps out a lot. "Work today but plan for tomorrow's job."
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