🇫🇷 French 🇫🇷 Presidential Election RUNOFF (President Emmanuel Macron vs. Marine Le Pen): Live Updates and News (24 April 2022)

[Tender Branson]

Here is the France 24 English live stream, if you want to follow updates and exit polls after polling stations close at 8pm:

 

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 12:00 / noon - compared to the first round:

It seems areas that voted for Marine Le Pen in round one see a higher turnout today, while Macron areas see lower turnout.

But that is just a snapshot. And possibly doesn't mean much.

 

[Tender Branson]

Belgian newspaper "La Libre" is reporting the results of the French overseas areas that voted yesterday.

And they show a huge swing to Le Pen compared to 2017 !

Guadeloupe (Caribbean): 70-30 Le Pen (2017: 75-25 Macron)
Martinique (Caribbean): 61-39 Le Pen (2017: 78-22 Macron)
French Guyana (South America): 61-39 Le Pen (2017: 65-35 Macron)
Saint-Martin & Saint-Barthélemy (Caribbean): 55-45 Le Pen (2017: 65-35 Macron)
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (off Canada): 51-49 Le Pen (2017: 63-37 Macron)
French Polynesia (Pacific): 52-48 Macron (2017: 58-42 Macron)

La Libre dévoile les premiers résultats définitifs de la présidentielle 2022 : Marine Le Pen en tête dans les départements d'Outre-mer

La Libre dévoile les premiers résultats de cette présidentielle 2022 qui oppose les candidats Emmanuel Macron (La République en Marche) et Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national) dans leur duel pour l'Elysée.

www.lalibre.be

Those swings away from Macron are wild: he loses at least 6% in French Polynesia, but 30-40% support (!) in the Caribbean overseas regions.

If these swings are repeated in mainland France, he's screwed.

 

[Tender Branson]

What's very worrying for Macron:

At least in the overseas regions, it seems left-wing working-class Melenchon voters (= French Bernie Sanders voters) are voting in droves for Le Pen.

 

[Tender Branson]

What's very worrying for Macron:

At least in the overseas regions, it seems left-wing working-class Melenchon voters (= French Bernie Sanders voters) are voting in droves for Le Pen.

One is clear if these are the results. The Mélenchon surge overseas two weeks ago seems to have been an anti-system surge and with Le Pen as the anti-system candidate, they now lean Le Pen. This has always been the Le Pen hope that the Mélenchon vote is an anti-system vote and not a Left vote per say.

 

[Tender Branson]

The Consulate vote by French voters abroad looks much better for Macron than those in the overseas territories.

A few countries results have been leaked by "La Libre" and they show Macron only shedding a few percentages compared with 2017.

In Argentina, French voters there back Macron by even bigger margins than 2017.

In Canada & the US, Macron does virtually the same as in 2017, but a few embassies are missing such as Chicago or Vancouver.

 

[Carjosse]

Belgian newspaper "La Libre" is reporting the results of the French overseas areas that voted yesterday.

And they show a huge swing to Le Pen compared to 2017 !

Guadeloupe (Caribbean): 70-30 Le Pen (2017: 75-25 Macron)
Martinique (Caribbean): 61-39 Le Pen (2017: 78-22 Macron)
French Guyana (South America): 61-39 Le Pen (2017: 65-35 Macron)
Saint-Martin & Saint-Barthélemy (Caribbean): 55-45 Le Pen (2017: 65-35 Macron)
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (off Canada): 51-49 Le Pen (2017: 63-37 Macron)
French Polynesia (Pacific): 52-48 Macron (2017: 58-42 Macron)

La Libre dévoile les premiers résultats définitifs de la présidentielle 2022 : Marine Le Pen en tête dans les départements d'Outre-mer

La Libre dévoile les premiers résultats de cette présidentielle 2022 qui oppose les candidats Emmanuel Macron (La République en Marche) et Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national) dans leur duel pour l'Elysée.

www.lalibre.be

Those swings away from Macron are wild: he loses at least 6% in French Polynesia, but 30-40% support (!) in the Caribbean overseas regions.

If these swings are repeated in mainland France, he's screwed.

Mainland France is a much bigger and different beast than the overseas territories.

 

[Tender Branson]

Mainland France is a much bigger and different beast than the overseas territories.

That may very well be the case.

Has Macron said anything stupid about French overseas territories in the past 5 years ?

I wonder why his support collapsed so much there.

He literally got 70-80% there last time and 30-40% now.

 

[Tender Branson]

5pm turnout in France was 63% (-2% vs. the first round).

That points to just 72% final turnout by poll-closing, the lowest turnout since the 1960s (but still higher than any US turnout).

 

[Carjosse]

That may very well be the case.

Has Macron said anything stupid about French overseas territories in the past 5 years ?

I wonder why his support collapsed so much there.

He literally got 70-80% there last time and 30-40% now.

I mean if an area of France is going to feel forgotten it will be the overseas territories. I know Saint Pierre and Miquelon feel that way because of COVID.

 

[Tender Branson]

I mean if an area of France is going to feel forgotten it will be the overseas territories. I know Saint Pierre and Miquelon feel that way because of COVID.

Yeah, maybe.

But Hawaii is not suddenly voting for Trump either, or Alaska for Biden, just because they are far away from Washington and feel "forgotten" ... but maybe that's a completely different story.

 

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Mainland France indeed votes differently than overseas territories, as 4 exit pollsters have Macron winning - according to Belgian newspaper "La Libre":

According to four opinion polls carried out this Sunday by four renowned polling institutes in France, Emmanuel Macron is credited with 55 to 58% of the votes, while Marine Le Pen would collect between 42 and 45% of the votes, LN24 has learned. These results come from surveys carried out on the Internet with citizens who have already voted until 5 p.m.

Please note that a survey is not a projection based on actual results, but an opinion survey carried out with a representative panel. The results that we present to you will continue to evolve and be refined little by little.

We know from a good source that these polls are also circulating in the French newsrooms and in the campaign headquarters of the two candidates.

Macron has also announced his election night speech will be in front of the Eiffel Tower.

(The people could still have lied to exit pollsters, but the chances are low ...)

 

[Carjosse]

Yeah, maybe.

But Hawaii is not suddenly voting for Trump either, or Alaska for Biden, just because they are far away from Washington and feel "forgotten" ... but maybe that's a completely different story.

Well Hawaii and Alaska have never really been isolated. Both recieved massive investment from the US federal government and the mainland. Not the case really for French overseas territories.

 

[Tender Branson]

Polls are closing in 15 minutes in rural France.

Polling stations in big cities are open for another hour.

 

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in 15 minutes !

Live stream of exit polls and results:

Live | TV5MONDE Europe

Watch TV5MONDE Europe live. Cinema, TV series, documentaries, lifestyle and more. Anytime, anywhere, with French or English subtitles. And it's FREE!

europe.tv5monde.com

 

[Tender Branson]

Another live stream from FranceInfo:



Polls close in 10 minutes !

I predict a 54-46 win for Macron.

 

[Tender Branson]

President Emmanuel Macron apparently re-elected by a 16-point margin:

58-42.

 

[Tender Branson]

What a bad day for the Far-Right today.

Hahaha.

Massive defeats in France and Slovenia.

 

[Phys251]

President Emmanuel Macron apparently re-elected by a 16-point margin:

58-42.

 

[Tender Branson]

That is almost a California-style margin of victory for President Macron.

 

[Tender Branson]

F**k you, Le Pen !

F**k you, Putin !

F**k you, totalitarianism and dictatorship !

 

[Tender Branson]

Results map:

2022 French presidential election: Interactive map and results

2022 French presidential election: Interactive map and results

interactive.afp.com

 

[Gnosis]

The runoff election for the French Presidency is on Sunday, but still just hours away:

French overseas regions already vote on Saturday, which means Wallis & Futuna in the Pacific Ocean will start voting first, in about 6 hours time.

Here you can read articles leading up to the runoff:

French Election 2022 | Latest Updates | AP News

Follow the 2022 French Presidential election with AP News. Will France reelect Macron for five more years? Get the latest coverage leading up to the runoff on April 24

apnews.com

Post your analysis, expectations or articles here.

Wikipedia:

2022 French presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

First round thread:

https://debatepolitics.com/threads/-french--presidential-election-live-updates-and-news-10-april-2022.477862/

The French let their islands vote? How civilized.

 

[Tender Branson]

The French let their islands vote? How civilized.

Yeah.

An American citizen who lives in Germany since 5 years can vote for US president, but someone from Puerto Rico who has a family in Florida cannot. Unless he moves to Florida too.

 

[Tender Branson]

Unlike the French overseas regions in the Americas (who voted for Le Pen by big margins), the 3 overseas regions in the Pacific all voted for Macron.

No results yet from the 2 remaining regions in Southern Africa.