🇫🇷 French 🇫🇷 Presidential Election RUNOFF (President Emmanuel Macron vs. Marine Le Pen): Live Updates and News (24 April 2022)

[Tender Branson]

The runoff election for the French Presidency is on Sunday, but still just hours away:

French overseas regions already vote on Saturday, which means 🇼🇫 Wallis & Futuna 🇼🇫 in the Pacific Ocean will start voting first, in about 6 hours time.

Here you can read articles leading up to the runoff:

French Election 2022 | Latest Updates | AP News

Follow the 2022 French Presidential election with AP News. Will France reelect Macron for five more years? Get the latest coverage leading up to the runoff on April 24.

apnews.com

Post your analysis, expectations or articles here.

Wikipedia:

2022 French presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

First round thread:

https://debatepolitics.com/threads/...n-live-updates-and-news-10-april-2022.477862/

 

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday night, a 3-hour TV debate was held.

In France there's just 1 debate, but 3 hours long.

In the US, there are 3 debates which are 90 minutes long.

Macron was seen as the winner of the debate by a 59-39 margin.

Re-watch it here:

 

[Tender Branson]

Since the debate was held, a few more runoff polls were conducted to predict the outcome of the Sunday election.

Some have Macron ahead by 54-58% vs. 42-46% for Le Pen.

Odoxa has Macron ahead by just 53-47, which is tighter, but still outside the margin of error of polling (+/- 3%).

In other words, based on polling, the President is clearly ahead going into the runoff.

But 20% of voters are still undecided and Le Pen can count on dissatisfaction in the electorate.

In 2017, Macron won a huge 66-34 win - which will be closer by far, but probably not enough for her to win.

 

[Tender Branson]

Other than the French overseas areas (spanning from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean to the Canadian Coast to the Caribbean and back to the Pacific Ocean) and who vote tomorrow already, the polling stations in Mainland France will be open from 8am to 8pm on Sunday. They will close at 7pm in rural areas, but 8pm in larger cities.

 

[PeteEU]

Thing is, people are dissatisfied with both candidate and it has shown in lower turnouts in normally strong areas by loyalists.

The key will be...will the voters on the left turn out yet again to prevent a Nazi for gaining the presidency or will they not.

 

[Tender Branson]

Thing is, people are dissatisfied with both candidate and it has shown in lower turnouts in normally strong areas by loyalists.

The key will be...will the voters on the left turn out yet again to prevent a Nazi for gaining the presidency or will they not.

Many voters dislike both of these candidates, yes.

One is a Neo-Liberal incumbent president who hardly has a social heart - while the other is a literal Nazi.

Many of these voters stay home and won't vote, others will vote - but cast a blank and therefore invalid ballot. Or strike through both names on the ballot, also invalid. But that is still a vote. It shows that they took part in the runoff, but were dissatisfied with the choices.

 

[Tender Branson]

Here is a map of French overseas regions, all over the planet, some of which start voting in a few hours already:

Some of those are not inhabited, like the one island off Mexico, or the islands in the South Indian Ocean or Antarctica (just by scientists living there).

Only 2.5 million people are living in these overseas regions, out of 68 million in total.

 

[Crovax]

I think this will have an anticlimactic ending. Macron will win big.

 

[Tender Branson]

What is relatively fascinating is when you look into the polling data of subgroups:

How do French men vote ?
How do French women vote ?

The different polling institutions agree on these things.

Men vote 50-50.
Women vote for Macron by 60-40.

As in the US, women back the so-called "liberal" candidates (Macron, Biden, Hillary, Obama) by far bigger margins than the right-wing or conservative or populist neo-Nazi ones like Le Pen or Trump.

How do French voters vote by age ?

Also similar to the US voters:

French young voters (18-25) vote for Macron by a 10-point margin. US voters who are young also vote Democratic (college-goers).

Then something wild happens:

As voters start working, they become really Le Pen and Trump voting: 55% of those between ages 25 and 65 vote Le Pen or Trump ! Which means the taxpayers and those burdened by work !

Then, something wild happens again with those over 65:

Retired people vote for Macron by a 68-32 margin !

Suddenly, people are retired and free from pressure, they vote against the crazy populist candidates again.

(In the US, old voters over 65 are not that lopsided for Democrats, but still voted more for Biden than Trump, but more like 60-40.)

 

[Tender Branson]

Voting in Wallis & Futuna (= a Pacific Ocean overseas territory) starts in 1.5 hours !

 

[Peter]

I'd vote for the candidate with the largest nose.

There's a clear winner here.

 

[Centrist]

OpinionWay - Kea Partneres poll for Les Echos and Radio Classique:

Emmanuel Macron to win with 57% of the vote
Turnout is estimated at 72% in the second round of the French presidential elections
Survey conducted on April 20-22 on a sample of 2,329 respondents; the margin of error is +/- 0.9 - 2.0%.

BVA poll for RTL and Orange:

Emmanuel Macron to win with 55.5% of the vote
Turnout is estimated at 72% in the second round of presidential elections
Survey conducted on April 21 on a sample of 1,504 respondents; margin of error of +/- 2.5%.

What happened to Le Pen's party loan to the Russian bank?

An amicable settlement was reached in 2020 between the French far-right party and the Russian firm, which sued Marine Le Pen's party for non-payment of the loan.

A Russian company has sued the party led by le Pen for non-payment of a loan of more than 734 million rubles (around 9.6 million euros), contracted in Russia in 2014.

According to documents available on the website of the Moscow Arbitration Tribunal, the Aviazpatchast company, led by former Russian soldiers, filed a complaint against the party on December 10 for "credit recovery".

After paying interest, the party had to pay, according to the contractual clauses, 9.6 million euros in a single installment in 2019.

In March 2016, the debt was transferred to a car rental company in Russia, shortly before First Czech-Russian Bank, which granted the loan, closed. The debt was then sold to Aviazpatchast, a company specializing in aircraft spare parts run by former Russian servicemen.

Via Eastern European press

 

[Tender Branson]

After Wallis & Futuna, voting is now also underway in New Caledonia (near Australia).

 

[Tender Branson]

And voting has also started in the Indian Ocean territories of Reunion and Mayotte.

Only the Americas are left.

And Mainland France tomorrow.

 

[Tender Branson]

Voting has started in Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, which is located off the Canadian coast.

Voting in French Guyana will start soon, as will the rest of the Caribbean territories.

 

[Tender Branson]

No campaigning is allowed anymore today and no opinion polling can be released any longer, because Saturday is the "quiet" day before Mainland France votes (today, the overseas areas are already voting).

 

[Centrist]

Topics that will decide the winner of the French presidential election

Although the war in Ukraine has dominated the news in France for almost two months, opinion polls show that by far the main concern of the French is the decline in purchasing power due to rising energy prices and inflation.

Both problems began before Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 but were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. An interesting note here, about the solutions to the European energy crisis: despite irreconcilable differences on almost every issue, both Macron and Le Pen are strong supporters of nuclear energy.

Emmanuel Macron complained during the debate between the two that took place on Wednesday that these, together with the pandemic of COVID-19 and the protests of the "yellow vests" , overshadowed his presidency.

But while the French president tried to create a wartime image of a leader after February 24, Le Pen avoided talking too much about the conflict in Ukraine and campaigned hard on the grass, visiting many villages. and small towns in France where he talked to ordinary people about the day-to-day problems they face.

Opinion polls show that, at least in terms of protecting their purchasing power, the French have more confidence in the radical right-wing candidate.

Although polls show that voters are generally dissatisfied with Macron's economic policies, unemployment has reached its lowest level since the outbreak of the 2007-2009 global economic crisis, the French do not believe any of his opponents would do a better job.

Easter European Media

My prediction for today:

---> Victory for the Centrist Macron and a strong Europe united.

 

[Tender Branson]

The French overseas areas in the Caribbean are now also voting, because it's 8am on the East Coast.

Just French Polynesia is not voting yet, because it's about where Hawaii is.

 

[Tender Branson]

Tahiti and much of French Polynesia is 12 hours behind Paris or Vienna time.

So, it means the last French overseas department will start voting at 8am local time today, which is 8pm here.

 

[Tender Branson]

Every French overseas area has now started voting (and some have already ended it again).

 

[Tender Branson]

Voting in France itself starts in 2 hours !

 

[Tender Branson]

Voter turnout in overseas territories is up by between 2% and 7% compared to the 1st round !

This doesn't mean much though, because turnouts in overseas areas were substantially lower than that of mainland France (35-55% depending on the area) vs. 74% in France itself.

But it is always good if more people vote.

 

[Surrealistik]

Thing is, people are dissatisfied with both candidate and it has shown in lower turnouts in normally strong areas by loyalists.

The key will be...will the voters on the left turn out yet again to prevent a Nazi for gaining the presidency or will they not.

People are dissatisfied because it's a neoliberal servant of the rich vs a false populist euroskeptic xenophobe; another lose lose referendum on lesser evils, not unlike recent US elections.

No good guys here; only bad and worse.

 

[Centrist]

French citizens in Shanghai - nearly 5,000 - unable to vote in the second round due to strict quarantine imposed by authorities in China's largest city.

 

[Tender Branson]

Until 12:00 (= noon) local time, turnout in mainland France was about 1% higher than in the first round two weeks ago, but lower than during the runoff in 2017.

75% turnout seems likely for today, which is down from 2017, but not bad internationally for such a large country.

The US for example only had 67% turnout in 2020 and this was a 100-year record-high.