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Yes you! But don't get insulted, I am talking about all of humanity, including everyone.
Sometimes the smartest, most educated, people have the stupidest ideas. They have too much confidence in their own intelligence, and other people trust their expertise, so their stupid ideas get spread around.
Why are we ALL so stupid? Our conscious minds, which often think in words, are very useful for solving ordinary problems.
But solving problems depends on more than just logic. It depends on having the required data. If you want to fix a leak in your plumbing, and you have the knowledge (data) for doing it, then you will probably succeed. And the same for all the other practical problem-solving we do.
But what happens when data is missing? You don't know how to fix a plumbing leak. So you hire an expert to do it.
Ok, all that is obvious. But what happens when you don't have enough data, and the experts don't either? That happens more often than you think. It happens all the time.
Will the stock market go up or down? You can only guess, there is so much data you don't know about. And worst of all, you can't see the future. Check out what the experts are saying. Uh oh, they are all saying different things.
With the stock market, we sort of know we can't really trust any of the experts. There is too much unknown and there is too much that is unpredictable.
Is the stock market an unusual case? The economy is a complex system, after all, so no human mind can really grasp it.
No, wait, no, the stock market is not an unusual case. We inhabit complex systems within complex systems. Even our closest relationships with friends and relatives are complex systems. Beyond the grasp of our logic, impossible to ever analyze completely.
It doesn't matter how smart you think you are. You are stupid.
There are levels of stupidity. For example, Trump loves the bottom of the barrel stupid:
Donald Trump declares 'I love the poorly educated'
There are some ideas so stupid that you have to be educated to believe them.
The stock market IS an unusual case. Predicting it has nothing to do with intelligence. It has to do with lack of access to inside information. That is why using inside information is illegal, but probably not policeable. Lack of information is not the same as being stupid. Being stupid is about having the information but being unable to understand it. And I would hesitate to call it stupid.
And as for fixing plumbing, etc. Some people lack the skills do do certain things, even if they can understand how they are done. Nothing to do with stupidity.
How did you miss the entire point of this post??????? I SAID we can't predict the stock market because we don't have all the data. I SAID we are "stupid" because, when trying to analyze complex systems we never have all the data.
How did you miss the entire point of this post??????? I SAID we can't predict the stock market because we don't have all the data. I SAID we are "stupid" because, when trying to analyze complex systems we never have all the data.
I SAID we are "stupid" because, when trying to analyze complex systems we never have all the data.
There is a distinction to be made for the sake of clarity, which I already see a couple of posters failing to make, between ignorance and stupidity.
Ignorance is meliorated by education.
Stupidity is beyond melioration.
So, as a species, we are collectively stupid because we make the effort of utilizing critical thought processes in the face of incomplete information? Is that what you are saying? Or are you merely saying our species collectively mouths off without knowing what they're talking about (in the face of incomplete information)?
OM
Would universal consciousness be a complex system?
In would say misguided, hopeful, gambling.
The universe is an infinitely complex system.
Some, not all, mouth off without knowing what they are talking about. Everyone at least a little, some a lot. Because it's hard for us to see how stupid (limited, fallible) we actually are.
The smartest people can be the stupidest, because it's harder for them to see their limitations.
And this is precisely why I enjoy the likes of Diogenes.
OM
This thread sure is one way to win friends and influence people... wow.
Thanks for the sterling demonstration of stupidity. I bet you're still waiting for that $2500 saving in healthcare costs Obama promised you.There are levels of stupidity.
For example, Trump loves his base, whom he considers to be bottom of the barrel stupid:
Donald Trump declares 'I love the poorly educated'
I suppose because he believes they're much easier to flimflam, having never learned critical thinking skills (because according to Trump they're poorly educated).
Plato called Diogenes "a Socrates gone mad".
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