- Joined
- Nov 24, 2018
- Messages
- 12,026
- Reaction score
- 2,669
- Gender
- Female
- Political Leaning
- Slightly Conservative
Yes you! But don't get insulted, I am talking about all of humanity, including everyone.
Sometimes the smartest, most educated, people have the stupidest ideas. They have too much confidence in their own intelligence, and other people trust their expertise, so their stupid ideas get spread around.
Why are we ALL so stupid? Our conscious minds, which often think in words, are very useful for solving ordinary problems.
But solving problems depends on more than just logic. It depends on having the required data. If you want to fix a leak in your plumbing, and you have the knowledge (data) for doing it, then you will probably succeed. And the same for all the other practical problem-solving we do.
But what happens when data is missing? You don't know how to fix a plumbing leak. So you hire an expert to do it.
Ok, all that is obvious. But what happens when you don't have enough data, and the experts don't either? That happens more often than you think. It happens all the time.
Will the stock market go up or down? You can only guess, there is so much data you don't know about. And worst of all, you can't see the future. Check out what the experts are saying. Uh oh, they are all saying different things.
With the stock market, we sort of know we can't really trust any of the experts. There is too much unknown and there is too much that is unpredictable.
Is the stock market an unusual case? The economy is a complex system, after all, so no human mind can really grasp it.
No, wait, no, the stock market is not an unusual case. We inhabit complex systems within complex systems. Even our closest relationships with friends and relatives are complex systems. Beyond the grasp of our logic, impossible to ever analyze completely.
It doesn't matter how smart you think you are. You are stupid.
Sometimes the smartest, most educated, people have the stupidest ideas. They have too much confidence in their own intelligence, and other people trust their expertise, so their stupid ideas get spread around.
Why are we ALL so stupid? Our conscious minds, which often think in words, are very useful for solving ordinary problems.
But solving problems depends on more than just logic. It depends on having the required data. If you want to fix a leak in your plumbing, and you have the knowledge (data) for doing it, then you will probably succeed. And the same for all the other practical problem-solving we do.
But what happens when data is missing? You don't know how to fix a plumbing leak. So you hire an expert to do it.
Ok, all that is obvious. But what happens when you don't have enough data, and the experts don't either? That happens more often than you think. It happens all the time.
Will the stock market go up or down? You can only guess, there is so much data you don't know about. And worst of all, you can't see the future. Check out what the experts are saying. Uh oh, they are all saying different things.
With the stock market, we sort of know we can't really trust any of the experts. There is too much unknown and there is too much that is unpredictable.
Is the stock market an unusual case? The economy is a complex system, after all, so no human mind can really grasp it.
No, wait, no, the stock market is not an unusual case. We inhabit complex systems within complex systems. Even our closest relationships with friends and relatives are complex systems. Beyond the grasp of our logic, impossible to ever analyze completely.
It doesn't matter how smart you think you are. You are stupid.
