(Yahoo Finance) Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses (1 Viewer)

[ElChupacabra]

(Yahoo Finance) Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses
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On the heels of Walmart's announcement of upcoming price increases later this month, we now find last month's Retail Sales fell sharply.

Along with a weakening CPI, and negative GDP, falling Retail Sales would seem to indicate we may be in a consumer slump.

I suspect the taxing of incoming goods will negate our current disinflation, but can't say I believe they will bode well for the retail consumer slump. If anything, I believe higher prices may further decrease sales.

What's likely going to play a big part here is consumer sentiment, and that's been in a sharp decline due to all of the tariff related instability. I suspect retailers will try and absorb some of the tariff increases, but that will only last so long before they jack up prices.

 

[Ikari]

And with all your considerable efforts, you haven't been able to drive me away.

It must make you sad that you can't keep DP "pure" and conservatives are finally able to share opinions - even opinions not blessed by the party.

I've made no efforts, I enjoy laughing at your posts.

 

[ElChupacabra]

Also, I'd like to add the stock market liked this news (maybe that wholesale inflation aspect). The market was down earlier today but has turned around and is now up a couple hundred.

This will be meaningful when the increase surpasses what it was before the tariff related tanking is overcome.

 

[Allan]

And with all your considerable efforts, you haven't been able to drive me away.

Do more of this.

Don't take guff from the staff!

 

[Uncensored2008]

I've made no efforts, I enjoy laughing at your posts.

ROFL

And you have beach front property in Arizona to sell me.

 

[Ikari]

ROFL

And you have beach front property in Arizona to sell me.

Nope, you'll have to go to your Dear Leader if you wanna get scammed, I don't pull that BS.

 

[gbg3]

I always said if Trump brings inflation down, it will be through his causing a recession!

Currently, we're seeing a blip. I didn't see it coming either. And maybe, it will recede.

But my guess might be all this economic chaos is causing some of us to pause in our purchases and plans.

Few are talking about recession anymore. There are a few comments on this thread trying to help give a bit more context to your thread and your chosen link. I noticed you left out all of the major points of what your link discussed.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Nope, you'll have to go to your Dear Leader if you wanna get scammed, I don't pull that BS.

ROFL

 

[SCrider]

It's all Joe Biden's fault!

that bastard.

 

[Chomsky]

Just a couple different quotes from your link, right below this screenshot I'm posting here. Retail sales were a tad better than expectations, up 0.1 rather than the expectation of flat. And then a quote about the reason for the high increase in March. We can see that unusual March increase in this screenshot (also from your link).

View attachment 67570046



"Retail sales slowed in April as Trump's tariffs weighed on US consumers who pulled forward spending on some key categories into March ahead of these levies.

Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in April, slightly above economists' expectations for sales to be flat month on month and well below the 1.7% increase seen in March, according to Census Bureau data."

"April's data follows a large increase in March, when sales rose by the most in more than two years as consumers snatched up goods before a large part of Trump's tariffs were set to be implemented."



And then another take on this info, including more good news on inflation, following our recent encouraging CPI news.

"Meanwhile, retail sales slowed sharply in April, barely rising in a sharp reversal from American consumers' pre-tariff spending burst in March.

But wholesale inflation unexpectedly slowed last month, even as many of Trump's tariffs began coming into effect. The Producer Price Index fell 0.5% in April and rose at a 2.4% annual clip. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) update this week showed inflation pressures easing to four-year lows."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-edge-higher-nasdaq-wavers-with-walmart-earnings-retail-sales-data-in-focus-154811983.html

Yep. I discussed the data you presented with @anatta, in a post above.

It's possible the lack of retail sales growth is a rebound effect to the prior month. But, it's still not a desirable thing.

Along with falling CPI & GDP, I believe it is indeed a concern when the indicators all line-up to the negative together.

Does it mean a problem, for sure? Who knows? I believe it's impossible to predict at this point.

Inflation is going to be a bugaboo indicator. It's pretty much exactly at it's ideal (2%). If it goes lower, it will be thought to indicate possible recession. If it goes higher, it will be thought inflation is rearing its ugly little head again.

My only prediction is in predicting there will be economic fears whether inflation goes up or down!

 

[Chomsky]

lol what's the old joke about economists having many hands? "on the other hand"

Haha!

I always liked,

"If you laid all the economists in the world toe-to-head, they still could reach a conclusion!"

 

[Chomsky]

What's likely going to play a big part here is consumer sentiment, and that's been in a sharp decline due to all of the tariff related instability.

I suspect retailers will try and absorb some of the tariff increases, but that will only last so long before they jack up prices.

View attachment 67570049

FYI - Walmart, today, announced price increases coming later in the month.

Here:

Walmart to raise prices due to tariff costs after posting solid first quarter sales

Those inflation numbers from April? Yeah, probably too soon to reflect tariff effects. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/walmart-raise-prices-due-tariff-costs-after-posting-121828510?cid=social_twitter_abcn Even at 30%, there will need to be some pass on of the cost to the consumer.

debatepolitics.com

 

[Chomsky]

Few are talking about recession anymore. There are a few comments on this thread trying to help give a bit more context to your thread and your chosen link.

I noticed you left out all of the major points of what your link discussed.

I try to keep my excerpts brief and to the data & overarching point. Anymore than 2 or 3 excerpts get glossed over by many DP members.

What other points or data do you believe should have superseded those I excerpted?

 

[Callen]

Few are talking about recession anymore. There are a few comments on this thread trying to help give a bit more context to your thread and your chosen link. I noticed you left out all of the major points of what your link discussed.

Not sure why you say "few" are talking about recession. Have you a source to support that? From what I read daily most economists and the big banks are still calling for a recession but have lowered the percentage. Most seem to be falling in at 35%-50%. Here are the views of some of the largest. I can provide more if you wish.

Are We Close To A Recession? Here’s How To Tell.

The GDP, the labor market and consumer confidence all offer measures to tell whether the U.S. economy is close to a recession or not, no matter what Wall Street or the White House say.

www.forbes.com

 

[CaughtInThe]

I've stopped spending and I've increased our labor and contractual rates already.

I'm not playing Trump"s game of 4 years of chaos.

 

[Chomsky]

I've stopped spending and I've increased our labor and contractual rates already.

I'm not playing Trump"s game of 4 years of chaos.

This whole thing is a mess.

I just checked Ali-Express, and where before they were charging an additional fee of 145%, they now are charging an additional fee of 50%!

This is still above the supposed 30% current tariff rate, and I'm perplexed by this to the point of holding-off my since-delayed purchase.

 

[Phys251]

Also, I'd like to add the stock market liked this news (maybe that wholesale inflation aspect). The market was down earlier today but has turned around and is now up a couple hundred.

Wall Street is infested with MAGAs, who are foolishly optimistic about the tRump economy.

If Biden or Obama had done any of this, the Dow would be in the tank.

 

[Absentglare]

Few are talking about recession anymore. There are a few comments on this thread trying to help give a bit more context to your thread and your chosen link. I noticed you left out all of the major points of what your link discussed.

They stopped talking about it because everyone was freaking out over the gun our rogue president has been holding to our own economy’s head.

The GDP shrank. Folks were still buying some things to stock up before Trump’s new taxes get priced in.

Trump will tax raw materials coming to the US, this is going to scale business down. Why pay 30% more for something assembled in the US versus Canada? We’re going to see business dynamics change as logistics experts work around the new reality that the US is an unreliable economy.

 

[gbg3]

I try to keep my excerpts brief and to the data & overarching point. Anymore than 2 or 3 excerpts get glossed over by many DP members.

What other points or data do you believe should have superseded those I excerpted?

I posted more inclusive ones (IMO) in comment 21. When I posted that comment, I hadn't yet gotten to Anatta's comment. Obviously, he thought the same things were left out. It's almost like you wanted to just skip right on past that very unusual March which was clearly a month which was very impactful to the April numbers. The March increase was far and away the highest in over 2 years. Then in April we went up 0.1 over that. March was pretty darn pertinent and just skipped over in the OP.

 

[dobieg]

Also, I'd like to add the stock market liked this news (maybe that wholesale inflation aspect). The market was down earlier today but has turned around and is now up a couple hundred.

Everything I know is telling me to trim my stock positions which is why I'm staying fully invested.

 

[NuffSaid]

Booms? What part of a -0.3% GDP decline signals "boom"?

The boom booms in Trumps diaper.

 

[Allan]

Few are talking about recession anymore. There are a few comments on this thread trying to help give a bit more context to your thread and your chosen link. I noticed you left out all of the major points of what your link discussed.

Few?

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/economy/dimon-recession-tariffs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-wall-streets-biggest-bear-still-expects-a-recession-and-much-lower-stock-prices-132051165.html

 

[Callen]

Few?

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/economy/dimon-recession-tariffs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-wall-streets-biggest-bear-still-expects-a-recession-and-much-lower-stock-prices-132051165.html

Few on Fox.

 

[Chomsky]

I posted more inclusive ones (IMO) in comment 21. When I posted that comment, I hadn't yet gotten to Anatta's comment. Obviously, he thought the same things were left out. It's almost like you wanted to just skip right on past that very unusual March which was clearly a month which was very impactful to the April numbers. The March increase was far and away the highest in over 2 years. Then in April we went up 0.1 over that. March was pretty darn pertinent and just skipped over in the OP.

Your point is taken. But in my OP's ,I concentrate on data and perhaps one or - at most - two overarching take-aways.

Anymore than that (2-3 excerpts), is generally lost on many readers. In fact, the more inclusive and lengthy the OP - the less response it receives!

Others in the thread can take-away what they desire from the OP data, and can contribute their perspectives - as you have. That makes for healthy discussion.

Now where I did fall a bit short, which was unusual for me, was in not including the graph which anatta included in his post. I like graphs & images, and like including them in my OP's. For no particular reason, I didn't include the graph - and it would have helped.

As an aside, I just posted a thread on today's Consumer Sentiment release, and I did indeed include the graphs (as I generally do).

 

[Chomsky]

Wall Street is infested with MAGAs, who are foolishly optimistic about the tRump economy.

If Biden or Obama had done any of this, the Dow would be in the tank.

No matter how ecstatic MAGA seems to be over the Trump economy, I simply don't see it reflected in the general populace.

In fact, from all data I see economic sentiment appears to be extremely dour.

Check-out today's Consumer Sentiments release!

Here:

(Yahoo! Finance) Consumer sentiment hits second-lowest reading on record

(Yahoo! Finance) Consumer sentiment hits second-lowest reading on record -- Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 7.3% — the highest since 1981 — from 6.5% the month prior. Just four months ago, consumers had expected inflation of 3.3%...

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