(Yahoo Finance) Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses

[Chomsky]

(Yahoo Finance) Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses
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A 2.5% drop in sales at sporting goods and hobby stores led the declines, while sales at department stores fell 1.4%. Specialized retailers also saw a 2.1% decline last month.

"There are signs that the underlying trend in spending is slowing," Oxford Economics deputy chief US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

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On the heels of Walmart's announcement of upcoming price increases later this month, we now find last month's Retail Sales fell sharply.

Along with a weakening CPI, and negative GDP, falling Retail Sales would seem to indicate we may be in a consumer slump.

I suspect the taxing of incoming goods will negate our current disinflation, but can't say I believe they will bode well for the retail consumer slump. If anything, I believe higher prices may further decrease sales.

 

[Allan]

Didn't see this coming, said no one.

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

It's all Joe Biden's fault!

 

[CaughtInThe]

Duh

 

[anatta]

Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in April, slightly above economists' expectations for sales to be flat month on month and well below the 1.7% increase seen in March, according to Census Bureau data.

 

[Chomsky]

Didn't see this coming, said no one.

I always said if Trump brings inflation down, it will be through his causing a recession!

Currently, we're seeing a blip. I didn't see it coming either. And maybe, it will recede.

But my guess might be all this economic chaos is causing some of us to pause in our purchases and plans.

 

[Allan]

I always said is Trump brings inflation down, it will be through his causing a recession!

Currently, we're seeing a blip. I didn't see it coming either. And maybe, it will recede.

But my guess might be all this economic chaos is causing some of us to pause in our purchases and plans.

Jamie Dimon still fells a recession is coming.

Loading…

www.cnn.com

 

[Chomsky]

Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in April, slightly above economists' expectations for sales to be flat month on month and well below the 1.7% increase seen in March, according to Census Bureau data.

Yes, you're quoting data in the OP article.

But is there a point you're implying?

 

[anatta]

Yes, you're quitting the OP article.

But is there a point you're implying?

I hate explanations, but you seemed to have missed the top line figure. no worries and definitely no recession

 

[Chomsky]

Jamie Dimon still fells a recession is coming.

Loading…

www.cnn.com

I don't see how anyone can predict anything in the current scenario we're in.

Trump's just too erratic.

The only thing I might predict would be, "Caution in making predictions!"

 

[Allan]

definitely no recession

You're half way there.

 

[Ikari]

I think a slow down was expected. But with Trump reversing many of his tariffs, it might not be a sustained downturn in consumerism. But who knows, Trump is an unhinged madman.

 

[Chomsky]

I hate explanations, but you seemed to have missed the top line figure. no worries and definitely no recession

Well - the "top line" is -

"At +0.1%, retail sales growth had a sharp decline".

This is similar to the fall in GDP growth.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I think a slow down was expected. But with Trump reversing many of his tariffs, it might not be a sustained downturn in consumerism. But who knows, Trump is an unhinged madman.

You'll be so sad if the economy booms instead of tanking.

 

[Ikari]

You'll be so sad if the economy booms instead of tanking.

I'd be real sad if you stopped posting.

lol

 

[Chomsky]

I think a slow down was expected. But with Trump reversing many of his tariffs, it might not be a sustained downturn in consumerism. But who knows, Trump is an unhinged madman.

I expected a fall in GDP. I didn't expect the slip in the CPI.

The current slow down in retail sales would be expected, though with little price movement up 'till now - I suspect the recent slip is a rebound from the previous month's panicked binge buying to get ahead of the tariffs.

 

[Allan]

You'll be so sad if the economy booms instead of tanking.

Booms? What part of a -0.3% GDP decline signals "boom"?

 

[anatta]

Well - the "top line" is at +0.1%, retail sales growth had a sharp decline.

expected after the booming March sales. Here's a graph (article) that shows the volatility of m- m sales

This is similar to the fall in GDP growth.

GDP fell because of less government jobs and lots of "pre-tariff" imports

 

[Ikari]

I expected a fall in GDP. I didn't expect the slip in the CPI.

The current slow down in retail sales would be expected, though with little price movement up 'till now - I suspect the recent slip is a rebound from the previous month's panicked binge buying to get ahead of the tariffs.

Possibly, but I think if tariffs do go through, you'd kill consumerism too as people couldn't afford the increased pricing on everything.

 

[Chomsky]

expected after the booming March sales. Here's a graph (article) that shows the volatility of m- m sales
View attachment 67570042


GDP fell because of less government jobs and lots of "pre-tariff" imports

I'll admit, both of your assertions are fair propositions.

But for your arguments to prevail, you'd need to show numbers to your assertion's effect upon the whole. There's many other economic elements at play, besides those you mentioned.

I'm not going to hold you to providing the numbers, because it would be complex & difficult and I'm not crazy about going there either.

However I will concede your elements had some effects, even if we can't necessarily easily quantify them or determine their exact effect.

 

[gbg3]

(Yahoo Finance) Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses
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--

On the heels of Walmart's announcement of upcoming price increases later this month, we now find last month's Retail Sales fell sharply.

Along with a weakening CPI, and negative GDP, falling Retail Sales would seem to indicate we may be in a consumer slump.

I suspect the taxing of incoming goods will negate our current disinflation, but can't say I believe they will bode well for the retail consumer slump. If anything, I believe higher prices may further decrease sales.

Just a couple different quotes from your link, right below this screenshot I'm posting here. Retail sales were a tad better than expectations, up 0.1 rather than the expectation of flat. And then a quote about the reason for the high increase in March. We can see that unusual March increase in this screenshot (also from your link).





"Retail sales slowed in April as Trump's tariffs weighed on US consumers who pulled forward spending on some key categories into March ahead of these levies.

Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in April, slightly above economists' expectations for sales to be flat month on month and well below the 1.7% increase seen in March, according to Census Bureau data."

"April's data follows a large increase in March, when sales rose by the most in more than two years as consumers snatched up goods before a large part of Trump's tariffs were set to be implemented."



And then another take on this info, including more good news on inflation, following our recent encouraging CPI news.

"Meanwhile, retail sales slowed sharply in April, barely rising in a sharp reversal from American consumers' pre-tariff spending burst in March.

But wholesale inflation unexpectedly slowed last month, even as many of Trump's tariffs began coming into effect. The Producer Price Index fell 0.5% in April and rose at a 2.4% annual clip. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) update this week showed inflation pressures easing to four-year lows."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-edge-higher-nasdaq-wavers-with-walmart-earnings-retail-sales-data-in-focus-154811983.html

 

[ElChupacabra]

 

[anatta]

I'll admit, both of your assertions are fair propositions.

But for your arguments to prevail, you'd need to show numbers to your assertion's effect upon the whole. There's many other economic elements at play, besides those you mentioned.

I'm not going to hold you to providing the numbers, because it would be complex & difficult and I'm not crazy about going there either.

However I will concede your elements had some effects, even if we can't necessarily easily quantify them or determine their exact effect.

lol what's the old joke about economists having many hands? "on the other hand"

 

[gbg3]

Also, I'd like to add the stock market liked this news (maybe that wholesale inflation aspect). The market was down earlier today but has turned around and is now up a couple hundred.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I'd be real sad if you stopped posting.

lol

And with all your considerable efforts, you haven't been able to drive me away.

It must make you sad that you can't keep DP "pure" and conservatives are finally able to share opinions - even opinions not blessed by the party.