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Would Kasich Supporters Go To Rubio - Or Trump?

Marvan Buren

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The cluelessness of the political "experts" has been obvious for a while - and yet, they don't give up. For example, they look at the results in Virginia where Rubio lost to Trump by 3 points and they lament that if only Kasich had dropped out, the 9% of the vote he received would have been added to Rubio who would then have won this important state.

Does anyone reading this forum believe that? I certainly don't.

The experts insist on viewing the "highway" to the Republican nomination as a two lane road with Trump in one lane and everyone else in the other. Yes, the "Trump vs Anyone-but-Trump" highway is one of the roads, but, at our peril, we ignore the many other super and not-so-super highways leading to Cleveland. For example:

The Experienced Executive vs. the Inexperienced Senator Highway: Chris Christie's endorsement of Trump while mainly political, also backed up his rhetoric that executive experience matters. Christie judged that Trump is the one viable candidate remaining in the race who has actually been held accountable for decisions he's made. A key selling point for Kasich has been that he is also a successful chief executive. People voting for him for that reason, are more likely to go to Trump than to Rubio.

The Deal-Making vs. Stick-To-Your-Principles Highway Kasich argues that he can get things done because he is willing to work with Democrats. Trump, for all the bragging about how he will "win" every deal, is essentially saying the same thing. Rubio (and Cruz) on their first day in office promise to repeal every word of Obama Care and rip up the Iran deal. If the Kasich minivan pulls off this highway, then his passengers riding on this road will likely jump onto the sleek Trumpmobile.

The "Real American" highway This road clearly needs some reconstruction but it still matters. It is certainly true that Kasich would not waste a split-second before "disavowing" the support of racist groups but that doesn't mean that at least some of his supporters, perhaps without even knowing it themselves, aren't racists. American Presidents have generally had American parents and many are suspicious of those, like our current President, who have deep foreign connections. The children of Cuban immigrants - Rubio and Cruz - are far less likely to appeal to people on this highway than Mr. Trump.

Trump has yet to receive the magic 50% of the vote in any state but in Massachusetts he came within a point . It is beyond absurd to think that if Kasich dropped out, that none of the 18% he received would go to Trump. In fact, it is my contention that among the remaining Republican candidates, Trump is just as likely to pick up that support as anyone else. Thus, the clueless establishment should stop trying to push Kasich out.
 
The cluelessness of the political "experts" has been obvious for a while - and yet, they don't give up. For example, they look at the results in Virginia where Rubio lost to Trump by 3 points and they lament that if only Kasich had dropped out, the 9% of the vote he received would have been added to Rubio who would then have won this important state.

Does anyone reading this forum believe that? I certainly don't.

The experts insist on viewing the "highway" to the Republican nomination as a two lane road with Trump in one lane and everyone else in the other. Yes, the "Trump vs Anyone-but-Trump" highway is one of the roads, but, at our peril, we ignore the many other super and not-so-super highways leading to Cleveland. For example:

The Experienced Executive vs. the Inexperienced Senator Highway: Chris Christie's endorsement of Trump while mainly political, also backed up his rhetoric that executive experience matters. Christie judged that Trump is the one viable candidate remaining in the race who has actually been held accountable for decisions he's made. A key selling point for Kasich has been that he is also a successful chief executive. People voting for him for that reason, are more likely to go to Trump than to Rubio.

The Deal-Making vs. Stick-To-Your-Principles Highway Kasich argues that he can get things done because he is willing to work with Democrats. Trump, for all the bragging about how he will "win" every deal, is essentially saying the same thing. Rubio (and Cruz) on their first day in office promise to repeal every word of Obama Care and rip up the Iran deal. If the Kasich minivan pulls off this highway, then his passengers riding on this road will likely jump onto the sleek Trumpmobile.

The "Real American" highway This road clearly needs some reconstruction but it still matters. It is certainly true that Kasich would not waste a split-second before "disavowing" the support of racist groups but that doesn't mean that at least some of his supporters, perhaps without even knowing it themselves, aren't racists. American Presidents have generally had American parents and many are suspicious of those, like our current President, who have deep foreign connections. The children of Cuban immigrants - Rubio and Cruz - are far less likely to appeal to people on this highway than Mr. Trump.

Trump has yet to receive the magic 50% of the vote in any state but in Massachusetts he came within a point . It is beyond absurd to think that if Kasich dropped out, that none of the 18% he received would go to Trump. In fact, it is my contention that among the remaining Republican candidates, Trump is just as likely to pick up that support as anyone else. Thus, the clueless establishment should stop trying to push Kasich out.

Didn't read any of your post but the subject line. I am for Kasich. I vote Saturday and am trying to decide between sticking with Kasich or going to Rubio since he has a hail mary chance of winning and Kasich doesn't. Won't vote for Trump or Cruz. I think everyone has already lost except for Trump because even if there is a brokered convention (highly unlikely) and they pick someone other than Trump, then that just means Trump runs as an Independent and Republicans lose anyway.
 
Didn't read any of your post but the subject line. I am for Kasich. I vote Saturday and am trying to decide between sticking with Kasich or going to Rubio since he has a hail mary chance of winning and Kasich doesn't. Won't vote for Trump or Cruz. I think everyone has already lost except for Trump because even if there is a brokered convention (highly unlikely) and they pick someone other than Trump, then that just means Trump runs as an Independent and Republicans lose anyway.

Which puts you on what I'm calling the "Anyone But Trump or Cruz" highway. Not that you need to listen to me, since I'm your mirror image on the left, but I say stick to your principles. Kasich has a better chance than Rubio to win his home state on March 15 and neither he nor Rubio can remain in the race if they lose their home states.
 
Didn't read any of your post but the subject line. I am for Kasich. I vote Saturday and am trying to decide between sticking with Kasich or going to Rubio since he has a hail mary chance of winning and Kasich doesn't. Won't vote for Trump or Cruz. I think everyone has already lost except for Trump because even if there is a brokered convention (highly unlikely) and they pick someone other than Trump, then that just means Trump runs as an Independent and Republicans lose anyway.

If Rubio loses Florida (likely) then he's out. If Kasich wins Ohio (likely) then he's in, and becomes the anti-Trump.
 
If Rubio loses Florida (likely) then he's out. If Kasich wins Ohio (likely) then he's in, and becomes the anti-Trump.

Good evening, Jack. :2wave:

Being glued to both the TV and my laptop last night till way too early this morning :mrgreen: I got the impression from what Rubio was saying that he intends to win Florida! When he was reminded that he is currently down by 20 points, it didn't seem to bother him too much - he repeated that he intended to stay in the race! This could have been bravado, of course, but I think he intends to stay in till the convention in July, whether or not he wins Florida on March 15. He's counting on a brokered convention, IMO, and he will not leave the race for Cruz to win by default, since Kasich has already stated that he will withdraw if he doesn't win Ohio. Lots of things can happen in the next four months, though... :shock:
 
Good evening, Jack. :2wave:

Being glued to both the TV and my laptop last night till way too early this morning :mrgreen: I got the impression from what Rubio was saying that he intends to win Florida! When he was reminded that he is currently down by 20 points, it didn't seem to bother him too much - he repeated that he intended to stay in the race! This could have been bravado, of course, but I think he intends to stay in till the convention in July, whether or not he wins Florida on March 15. He's counting on a brokered convention, IMO, and he will not leave the race for Cruz to win by default, since Kasich has already stated that he will withdraw if he doesn't win Ohio. Lots of things can happen in the next four months, though... :shock:

Good evening, Polgara.:2wave:

If Kasich can win Ohio, which I think is likely, then new possibilities would be created.:mrgreen:
 
Kasich Supporters ----> Rubio

Carson Supporters ----> Cruz

Trump Supporters ----> Mental Hospital
 
I'll say one thing: If the race were to miraculously end with Kasich vs Hillary, I'd have to consider very carefully whether to vote Kasich or write in Bernie Sanders.

It'd be such a shame if he were to end soon; he's come a long way already, but passing Cruz and Rubio to become the Trump alternate is a feat I doubt his campaign is capable of, regardless of the progress he's made eating the others thus far.
 
You guys just need to be a little more openly objective of Trump. Yeah he is loud and a "buffoon" but that is just because he is eccentric because he is so smart, a extremely smart people often are a bit eccentric.

His heart is in the right place..
 
Kasich Supporters ----> Rubio

Carson Supporters ----> Cruz

Trump Supporters ----> Mental Hospital

Are you saying that if Trump doesn't get the nomination then all of those people he brought into the Republican Party would not vote for anyone else?
 
Good evening, Polgara.:2wave:

If Kasich can win Ohio, which I think is likely, then new possibilities would be created.:mrgreen:

Agreed. Assume Rubio loses Florida and Kasich wins Ohio. At that point, the anyone-but-Trump-or-Cruz Republicans would shift their support to Kasich and force Rubio to drop out. The question then becomes where do Rubio's supporters go? Presumably not to Trump after all the recent name-calling, but my view is that they are much more likely to go to Cruz than Kasich - regardless of what the "Establishment" says.

In the end, though, it won't matter where Rubio's supporters go as long as the result is a brokered convention. If so, I can easily see a Kasich - Rubio ticket emerging with Cruz supporters bought off with a promise to make their hero the Attorney General with full control over Supreme Court nominees. Further, with the centrist appeal of Kasich, they could beat Hillary even without the votes of Trump's supporters.

Crazier things have happened and, in fact, are happening.
 
Agreed. Assume Rubio loses Florida and Kasich wins Ohio. At that point, the anyone-but-Trump-or-Cruz Republicans would shift their support to Kasich and force Rubio to drop out. The question then becomes where do Rubio's supporters go? Presumably not to Trump after all the recent name-calling, but my view is that they are much more likely to go to Cruz than Kasich - regardless of what the "Establishment" says.

In the end, though, it won't matter where Rubio's supporters go as long as the result is a brokered convention. If so, I can easily see a Kasich - Rubio ticket emerging with Cruz supporters bought off with a promise to make their hero the Attorney General with full control over Supreme Court nominees. Further, with the centrist appeal of Kasich, they could beat Hillary even without the votes of Trump's supporters.

Crazier things have happened and, in fact, are happening.

Kasich Super PAC Ramps Up in Ohio
 
I am an independent who has not decided who to vote for yet in the general election. The only two Republicans I would consider voting for (of those in the lineup) are Trump and Kasich. I have serious issues with Trump, but I do agree with his positions on several key issues I care about.

Cruz is my senator, and I can tell you that he's a nasty piece of work. If Kasich were my main choice, no way would I then vote for a Cruz. Or a Rubio. I will leave out the unflattering comments I have about Rubio. But no way would I vote for a Rubio, if I were changing my vote from Kasich.

But others may be different. There are real issues with Trump.

Kasich supporters might vote for Bloomberg, if he were to jump in.
 
Agreed. Assume Rubio loses Florida and Kasich wins Ohio. At that point, the anyone-but-Trump-or-Cruz Republicans would shift their support to Kasich and force Rubio to drop out. The question then becomes where do Rubio's supporters go? Presumably not to Trump after all the recent name-calling, but my view is that they are much more likely to go to Cruz than Kasich - regardless of what the "Establishment" says.

In the end, though, it won't matter where Rubio's supporters go as long as the result is a brokered convention. If so, I can easily see a Kasich - Rubio ticket emerging with Cruz supporters bought off with a promise to make their hero the Attorney General with full control over Supreme Court nominees. Further, with the centrist appeal of Kasich, they could beat Hillary even without the votes of Trump's supporters.

Crazier things have happened and, in fact, are happening.

The Republicans can't win w/o Trump supporters, IMO. There are too many of them. He's the frontrunner and gotten a lot more votes than any other candidate. And his supporters are passionate about him.

I don't see the far righters going for Kasich, though. They'll say it's another Romney or McCain situation.
 
I am an independent who has not decided who to vote for yet in the general election. The only two Republicans I would consider voting for (of those in the lineup) are Trump and Kasich. I have serious issues with Trump, but I do agree with his positions on several key issues I care about.

Cruz is my senator, and I can tell you that he's a nasty piece of work. If Kasich were my main choice, no way would I then vote for a Cruz. Or a Rubio. I will leave out the unflattering comments I have about Rubio. But no way would I vote for a Rubio, if I were changing my vote from Kasich.

But others may be different. There are real issues with Trump.

Kasich supporters might vote for Bloomberg, if he were to jump in.

Did you miss voting in the Texas primary ?
 
Would Kasich Supporters Go To Rubio - Or Trump?
According to the following Poll 42% of Kasich supporters would go to Rubio, and 29% would go to Trump, still leaving Trump with the most voters.

Sup.jpg





Kasich Supporters ----> Rubio

Carson Supporters ----> Cruz

Trump Supporters ----> Mental Hospital
According to the above Poll:
Your first is correct with Rubio 42% to Trump receiving 29%, which still leaves Trump with the majority of supporters.
Your second is incorrect as Trump would receive 39% while Cruz would only take 27%.
Your third is as incorrect as it is irrational. 41% would go to Cruz white 20% would go to Rubio.​




Anyone voting for Rubio is voting for an incremental gun banner.

 
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If they are smart they will encourage Rubio and Cruz to get out and endorse Kasich.
 
Didn't read any of your post but the subject line. I am for Kasich. I vote Saturday and am trying to decide between sticking with Kasich or going to Rubio since he has a hail mary chance of winning and Kasich doesn't. Won't vote for Trump or Cruz. I think everyone has already lost except for Trump because even if there is a brokered convention (highly unlikely) and they pick someone other than Trump, then that just means Trump runs as an Independent and Republicans lose anyway.

Update: I've made my choice to vote for Kasich. He's my man anyway and now I think he has just as much chance of winning as Rubio if he can take Ohio and Rubio loses Florida.
 
Rubio won't drop out. He's been annointed the GOP nominee. The big money donors want him.

..... silly, since has almost zero chance of getting sufficient delegates. He has about the same chance (and same path) of gaining the nomination as Kasich, Cruz or Romney, for that matter. Each of them need a brokered convention * or a miracle to win.


* - and depending on Trump reacts to a brokered convention that does not award him the nomination, determines whether the Republican nomination convention means a thing. Trump has been, is and will continue to be the Republicans worst nightmare. (Or, you must destroy it in order to save it.)
 
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