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Would Kasich Supporters Go To Rubio - Or Trump?

If Kasich wins Ohio (likely IMHO) then Trump is stymied.

I don't follow. That gives Trump an Ohio win in the general election, theoretically.

I don't see a Kasich-Rubio ticket happening. Kasich just doesn't have the national appeal, although I would consider voting for him.
 
I don't follow. That gives Trump an Ohio win in the general election, theoretically.

I don't see a Kasich-Rubio ticket happening. Kasich just doesn't have the national appeal, although I would consider voting for him.

If Kasich wins Ohio then he remains a viable alternative. Meanwhile, denial of Ohio's delegates prevents Trump from a first ballot win at the Convention. Then the discussion becomes who does best against the Dems, and Kasich is at the top of that list.
 
Update: I've made my choice to vote for Kasich. He's my man anyway and now I think he has just as much chance of winning as Rubio if he can take Ohio and Rubio loses Florida.

I just looked up Florida on fivethirtyeight. Whoa.... I didn't realize Trump was leading there by such a large margin. 68% to Rubio's 31%. That's bad.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/

This is really an interesting primary season.
 

Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

Perhaps I'm being unreasonable, but this link seems to be unfair to my guy Kasich. Since all of the candidates are permitted to present themselves on TV to the voters as they see fit, how is it one man's fault if another man doesn't get all the votes he thinks should be his? I'm not blaming Rubio - to my knowledge it's only the media that's running with this hypothetical problem. Kasich didn't sneak in at the last minute to ruin Rubio's campaign, for crying out loud! At least the last sentence takes the brunt of the blame off Kasich a little bit, but since it was never anything he was deliberately doing in the first place, it's too little too late, IMO! Kasich has his voters, too, regardless of what the hierarchy wants! :2mad:
 
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Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

Perhaps I'm being unreasonable, but this link seems to be unfair to my guy Kasich. Since all of the candidates are permitted to present themselves on TV to the voters as they see fit, how is it one man's fault if another man doesn't get all the votes he thinks should be his? I'm not blaming Rubio - to my knowledge it's only the media that's running with this hypothetical problem. Kasich didn't sneak in at the last minute to ruin Rubio's campaign, for crying out loud! At least the last sentence takes the brunt of the blame off Kasich a little bit, but since it was never anything he was deliberately doing in the first place, it's too little too late, IMO! Kasich has his voters, too, regardless of what the hierarchy wants! :2mad:

Greetings, Polgara.:2wave:

Don't let it bother you. That's the way the narrative will be framed right up until Rubio gets knocked out.
 
According to the following Poll 42% of Kasich supporters would go to Rubio, and 29% would go to Trump, still leaving Trump with the most voters.

Thanks Excon for providing numbers. They are a bit out of date but let's go with them to expose the fiction that Kasich cost Rubio in Virginia. In the final tally Trump beat Rubio by 28,900 votes. Kasich received a total of 96,500 votes. Using Excon's numbers 42%, or 40,500 of Kasich's votes go to Rubio while 13%, or 28,000 go to Trump. Rubio therefore gets a plurality of 12,500 which is nowhere near enough to make up for the 28,900 he lost by in the first pace.

No - Kasich is not costing Rubio this election.
 
Thanks Excon for providing numbers. They are a bit out of date but let's go with them to expose the fiction that Kasich cost Rubio in Virginia. In the final tally Trump beat Rubio by 28,900 votes. Kasich received a total of 96,500 votes. Using Excon's numbers 42%, or 40,500 of Kasich's votes go to Rubio while 13%, or 28,000 go to Trump. Rubio therefore gets a plurality of 12,500 which is nowhere near enough to make up for the 28,900 he lost by in the first pace.

No - Kasich is not costing Rubio this election.
Look at it from an ideological standpoint too, Kasich is the only moderate left in the GOP field, Rubio has a voting record to the right of Cruz.
 
Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

Perhaps I'm being unreasonable, but this link seems to be unfair to my guy Kasich. Since all of the candidates are permitted to present themselves on TV to the voters as they see fit, how is it one man's fault if another man doesn't get all the votes he thinks should be his? I'm not blaming Rubio - to my knowledge it's only the media that's running with this hypothetical problem. Kasich didn't sneak in at the last minute to ruin Rubio's campaign, for crying out loud!

...actually it kinda seems like he did. Lots of late ad buys of attack ads against Rubio to drive him down just a bit in Va, where Kasich had no chance of winning, but wanted to make sure that Rubio didn't.

David Wasserman works for the Cook Political Report, and this is 538. This is the math. :shrug: Kasich has no path forward, but he is playing the role of spoiler.
 
Look at it from an ideological standpoint too, Kasich is the only moderate left in the GOP field, Rubio has a voting record to the right of Cruz.

Rubio's is actually slightly to the left of Cruz, but still very conservative. Broadly, you are correct about Kasich.
 
Rubio's is actually slightly to the left of Cruz, but still very conservative. Broadly, you are correct about Kasich.
Meh, Rubio was further right in 2012 rankings, 2013 it was reversed, some list em tied, they are both whack.
 
Meh, Rubio was further right in 2012 rankings, 2013 it was reversed, some list em tied, they are both whack.

Heritage puts Rubio at 94, Cruz at 100.
ACU puts Rubio at 98, Cruz at 100.

:shrug: they are both conservative.
 
The cluelessness of the political "experts" has been obvious for a while - and yet, they don't give up. For example, they look at the results in Virginia where Rubio lost to Trump by 3 points and they lament that if only Kasich had dropped out, the 9% of the vote he received would have been added to Rubio who would then have won this important state.

Does anyone reading this forum believe that? I certainly don't.

The experts insist on viewing the "highway" to the Republican nomination as a two lane road with Trump in one lane and everyone else in the other. Yes, the "Trump vs Anyone-but-Trump" highway is one of the roads, but, at our peril, we ignore the many other super and not-so-super highways leading to Cleveland. For example:

The Experienced Executive vs. the Inexperienced Senator Highway: Chris Christie's endorsement of Trump while mainly political, also backed up his rhetoric that executive experience matters. Christie judged that Trump is the one viable candidate remaining in the race who has actually been held accountable for decisions he's made. A key selling point for Kasich has been that he is also a successful chief executive. People voting for him for that reason, are more likely to go to Trump than to Rubio.

The Deal-Making vs. Stick-To-Your-Principles Highway Kasich argues that he can get things done because he is willing to work with Democrats. Trump, for all the bragging about how he will "win" every deal, is essentially saying the same thing. Rubio (and Cruz) on their first day in office promise to repeal every word of Obama Care and rip up the Iran deal. If the Kasich minivan pulls off this highway, then his passengers riding on this road will likely jump onto the sleek Trumpmobile.

The "Real American" highway This road clearly needs some reconstruction but it still matters. It is certainly true that Kasich would not waste a split-second before "disavowing" the support of racist groups but that doesn't mean that at least some of his supporters, perhaps without even knowing it themselves, aren't racists. American Presidents have generally had American parents and many are suspicious of those, like our current President, who have deep foreign connections. The children of Cuban immigrants - Rubio and Cruz - are far less likely to appeal to people on this highway than Mr. Trump.

Trump has yet to receive the magic 50% of the vote in any state but in Massachusetts he came within a point . It is beyond absurd to think that if Kasich dropped out, that none of the 18% he received would go to Trump. In fact, it is my contention that among the remaining Republican candidates, Trump is just as likely to pick up that support as anyone else. Thus, the clueless establishment should stop trying to push Kasich out.

I voted for Kasich in the Virginia primary. If Kasich drops out, my vote would go to Rubio because Trump is a walking disaster and Cruz's Dominionist leanings bother me. I don't like Rubio much either, but he's better than Trump, Cruz, Sanders, or Clinton.
 
Heritage puts Rubio at 94, Cruz at 100.
ACU puts Rubio at 98, Cruz at 100.

:shrug: they are both conservative.
They are both extremely conservative, ie, whacked.
 
They are both extremely conservative, ie, whacked.

:) They are both quite conservative, ie: correct. :D the whacked guy in this race is Sanders, and the insane one is Trump.
 
:) They are both quite conservative, ie: correct. :D the whacked guy in this race is Sanders, and the insane one is Trump.
Sure, New Deal Dems are whacked, especially in a lowered demand/slow job growth economy.
 
Kasich supporters would go to Rubio.

In Massachusetts, yes. (I was pretty much flipping a coin between the two). In most of the country, also, I would guess. But I doubt it is so in all-important Ohio: a lot of blue-collar white non-conservatives there who stick with the well-liked Governor but could be drawn to Trump if he is not in the race.
 
Are you saying that if Trump doesn't get the nomination then all of those people he brought into the Republican Party would not vote for anyone else?

It depends on the manner in which Trump doesn't get the nomination. The GOP has already soured people by openly stating that they're willing to cheat to win. If they actually do it then the Republican Party might give way to a third party to become the new DEM rival.
 
The cluelessness of the political "experts" has been obvious for a while - and yet, they don't give up. For example, they look at the results in Virginia where Rubio lost to Trump by 3 points and they lament that if only Kasich had dropped out, the 9% of the vote he received would have been added to Rubio who would then have won this important state.

Does anyone reading this forum believe that? I certainly don't.

The experts insist on viewing the "highway" to the Republican nomination as a two lane road with Trump in one lane and everyone else in the other. Yes, the "Trump vs Anyone-but-Trump" highway is one of the roads, but, at our peril, we ignore the many other super and not-so-super highways leading to Cleveland. For example:

The Experienced Executive vs. the Inexperienced Senator Highway: Chris Christie's endorsement of Trump while mainly political, also backed up his rhetoric that executive experience matters. Christie judged that Trump is the one viable candidate remaining in the race who has actually been held accountable for decisions he's made. A key selling point for Kasich has been that he is also a successful chief executive. People voting for him for that reason, are more likely to go to Trump than to Rubio.

The Deal-Making vs. Stick-To-Your-Principles Highway Kasich argues that he can get things done because he is willing to work with Democrats. Trump, for all the bragging about how he will "win" every deal, is essentially saying the same thing. Rubio (and Cruz) on their first day in office promise to repeal every word of Obama Care and rip up the Iran deal. If the Kasich minivan pulls off this highway, then his passengers riding on this road will likely jump onto the sleek Trumpmobile.

The "Real American" highway This road clearly needs some reconstruction but it still matters. It is certainly true that Kasich would not waste a split-second before "disavowing" the support of racist groups but that doesn't mean that at least some of his supporters, perhaps without even knowing it themselves, aren't racists. American Presidents have generally had American parents and many are suspicious of those, like our current President, who have deep foreign connections. The children of Cuban immigrants - Rubio and Cruz - are far less likely to appeal to people on this highway than Mr. Trump.

Trump has yet to receive the magic 50% of the vote in any state but in Massachusetts he came within a point . It is beyond absurd to think that if Kasich dropped out, that none of the 18% he received would go to Trump. In fact, it is my contention that among the remaining Republican candidates, Trump is just as likely to pick up that support as anyone else. Thus, the clueless establishment should stop trying to push Kasich out.

My Kasich vote will probably go to Hillary...unless something really changes. It certainly will not go to Cruz, and Rubio is toast. Trump still stands an outside chance of getting my vote.
 
Kasich supporters would go to Rubio.

Rubio is languishing in the primaries. hes not significantly better off than Kasich.
Trump is up almost 20 points on Rubio in Florida last time I saw. The only thing either of those two have is if it goes to convention.
 
I voted for Kasich in the Virginia primary. If Kasich drops out, my vote would go to Rubio because Trump is a walking disaster and Cruz's Dominionist leanings bother me. I don't like Rubio much either, but he's better than Trump, Cruz, Sanders, or Clinton.

I assumed you were a die hard Democrat.

I was wrong to assume.

I apologize.
 
Rubio is languishing in the primaries. hes not significantly better off than Kasich.
Trump is up almost 20 points on Rubio in Florida last time I saw. The only thing either of those two have is if it goes to convention.

With the latest polling showing Kasich having a real chance in Ohio, the question would now seem to be turning around. Will Rubio's supporters go to Kasich? I think it is yet another sign of the idiocy of this "establishment lane" theory that of course Rubio's supporters won't be going to Kasich. Most will go to Cruz which is why Cruz is pushing so hard to make sure that Rubio loses Florida.
 
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