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Worst Case Pandemic Prognostion Model Slashs Predction w/ 96% fewer deaths

Jack Hays said:
Doesn't absolve the authors of their responsibility.
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Their responsibility is as scientists and public health experts to produce reliable models, and to inform decision makers. Their responsibility does not extend to correcting lazy morons or hacks too lazy to read the study or who dishonestly summarized its findings. That buck stops with the dumb/lazy hacks.

You're determined to smear these people and still haven't shown any indication you've read their study. I don't get it.
 
JasperL said:
Their responsibility is as scientists and public health experts to produce reliable models, and to inform decision makers. Their responsibility does not extend to correcting lazy morons or hacks too lazy to read the study or who dishonestly summarized its findings. That buck stops with the dumb/lazy hacks.

You're determined to smear these people and still haven't shown any indication you've read their study. I don't get it.
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I'm not smearing anyone. I'm only noting two things: 1) their own belated decision that they needed to intervene in the public discourse, and 2) Nic Lewis's persuasive critique of their work.
 
Jack Hays said:
We'll see who is more accurate in the end. My money's on Lewis.
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I couldn't care less what your opinion is, because you didn't even read the UK model, and are making bets from a position of near total ignorance. :shrug:
 
Jack Hays said:
I'm not smearing anyone. I'm only noting two things: 1) their own belated decision that they needed to intervene in the public discourse, and 2) Nic Lewis's persuasive critique of their work.
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First of all, Ferguson was asked to testify before parliament, and did. It's hardly an indication they needed to "intervene in public discourse" because their mission, their reason to exist in these times as a COVID 19 advisory body, is to inform decision makers like parliament, which they did when asked. They did not appear on Fox News with Laura Ingraham or Sean Hannity to correct those idiots.

And Lewis is "persuasive" to you because it contradicts the actual experts and Judith Curry posted in on her website. It's not because you've evaluated the competing claims, because you haven't.
 
JasperL said:
First of all, Ferguson was asked to testify before parliament, and did. It's hardly an indication they needed to "intervene in public discourse" because their mission, their reason to exist in these times as a COVID 19 advisory body, is to inform decision makers like parliament, which they did when asked. They did not appear on Fox News with Laura Ingraham or Sean Hannity to correct those idiots.

And Lewis is "persuasive" to you because it contradicts the actual experts and Judith Curry posted in on her website. It's not because you've evaluated the competing claims, because you haven't.
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You're arguing facts not in evidence. Ferguson chose his own words.
 
Jack Hays said:
Read Lewis. You'll see.
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You lose Jack. If you refuse to debate it, and just appeal to authority that matches your view, you lose.
Why do you choose to lose, and not debate Jack?
Better yet, why not....after being thoroughly corrected by the quality work these posters did for you in showing you your errors, why didn't you thank them and move on? That's a win-win.

I really must know. Why do you do it?
 
Mach said:
You lose Jack. If you refuse to debate it, and just appeal to authority that matches your view, you lose.
Why do you choose to lose, and not debate Jack?
Better yet, why not....after being thoroughly corrected by the quality work these posters did for you in showing you your errors, why didn't you thank them and move on? That's a win-win.

I really must know. Why do you do it?
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Another mind-reader, I see. I'm familiar with the Imperial College UK team's work. That's why I'm confident the Lewis critique is crushing. The larger question though is the UK team's irresponsibility in letting the worst-case public narrative run so long. No one has tried to defend that; they only claim it wasn't the authors' responsibility. Not good enough.
 
Jack Hays said:
You're arguing facts not in evidence. Ferguson chose his own words.
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What words did he choose? Can you quote him? The words where he does not walk back anything?

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And good for NRO for publishing some accurate observations about this affair. It didn't take a lot of work - the author.....read the original study. But still it's more than our resident right wingers could manage.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Neil Ferguson Didn't Walk Back His COVID-19 Predictions | National Review

A narrative rocketed around [right wing] social media earlier today: An Imperial College study said that COVID-19 could kill 500,000 Brits, but in recent testimony, Neil Ferguson, the head of the group behind the study, put the number below 20,000. Clearly the lying alarmist was walking back his ridiculous predictions!

Well, no. The paper actually offered simulations of numerous scenarios. The one resulting in 500,000 deaths was one where Great Britain just carried on life as before. Other scenarios, where the country locked down whenever it was necessary to stop the disease’s spread, put death totals below 20,000. (See the rightmost death columns of Tables 4 and 5.)
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A genuine question, Jack: Do you know what this means?
Using a statistical model, we predict excess demand will be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds at the peak of COVID-19. Peak ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674) ventilators. Peak demand will be in the second week of April. We estimate 81,114 (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) deaths in the United States from COVID-19 over the next 4 months.
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This is not a trick question. I am trying to determine whether you understand how statistical modeling works so as to address any substantive argument you might present.
 
Visbek said:
:roll:

The paper was not written as a criticism of government responses as of 3/16. It was not "promoting" a "do nothing" strategy. It was written to give the UK government an idea of the possible effectiveness of different strategies.

And again, Ferguson a) did not write the headlines, and b) became ill within a few days of the report being released.

In other words, you STILL haven't read the paper. Good to know.

How would you know? You haven't read it.

Yet again! It wasn't trying to evaluate the current strategies. Let us know when you get a clue.

:roll:

The "confusion" was that people like you are deliberately misrepresenting his work.
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As your commentary has been increasingly dominated by non-substantive handwaving, false claims that I haven't read source material, there isn't much point it responding to those aspersions.

However, I stand by my criticisms over the report's messaging by his team and find Ferguson's explanation for his dramatic down-grading of the crisis forecasts on the basis of "locking down" failing to clear up the "confusion".

That said, you are correct in one respect: I have not found a transcript of his most recent testimony AND the video clip I found has insufficient audio quality (at least for my hearing). Therefore, if he provided a convincing explanation in that hearing I am unaware of it.

Finally, there are other reasons and contrary opinion that cast doubt on the assumptions used in this paper, but that is a separate subject.
 
JasperL said:
What words did he choose? Can you quote him? The words where he does not walk back anything?

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And good for NRO for publishing some accurate observations about this affair. It didn't take a lot of work - the author.....read the original study. But still it's more than our resident right wingers could manage.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Neil Ferguson Didn't Walk Back His COVID-19 Predictions | National Review
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As I posted much earlier, every model needs an exit strategy. Ferguson followed his. The point is not whether the model did or did not include less dire forecasts as possibilities; it did. The point is that the modelers were content for quite a while to let a worst-case-based public narrative run without offering any challenge.
 
Jack Hays said:
Another mind-reader, I see. I'm familiar with the Imperial College UK team's work. That's why I'm confident the Lewis critique is crushing.
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:2rofll:

That's so ignorant it's funny. The only way you can be confident his "critique" is "crushing" is to compare his CFRs as calculated (including where he came up with observed values and chopped 30% off the top!) to real world outcomes, and you cannot do that because you do not have that data - no one does.

The larger question though is the UK team's irresponsibility in letting the worst-case public narrative run so long. No one has tried to defend that; they only claim it wasn't the authors' responsibility. Not good enough.
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No, we put the blame where it belongs, on stupid reporters and TV talking heads who like you were too lazy to read the cited study, which was helpfully and I'm sure deliberately written in a way easy for any reasonably intelligent person to understand - even you!
 
Jack Hays said:
As I posted much earlier, every model needs an exit strategy. Ferguson followed his. The point is not whether the model did or did not include less dire forecasts as possibilities; it did. The point is that the modelers were content for quite a while to let a worst-case-based public narrative run without offering any challenge.
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I don't believe, my friend, that you have any appreciation for how ridiculous a statement that actually is (notwithstanding the total walkback it represents).
 
NWRatCon said:
A genuine question, Jack: Do you know what this means?This is not a trick question. I am trying to determine whether you understand how statistical modeling works so as to address any substantive argument you might present.
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Those are forecast ranges.
 
JasperL said:
:2rofll:

That's so ignorant it's funny. The only way you can be confident his "critique" is "crushing" is to compare his CFRs as calculated (including where he came up with observed values and chopped 30% off the top!) to real world outcomes, and you cannot do that because you do not have that data - no one does.



No, we put the blame where it belongs, on stupid reporters and TV talking heads who like you were too lazy to read the cited study, which was helpfully and I'm sure deliberately written in a way easy for any reasonably intelligent person to understand - even you!
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NWRatCon said:
I don't believe, my friend, that you have any appreciation for how ridiculous a statement that actually is (notwithstanding the total walkback it represents).
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As you wish. Now that you've resorted to insults the discussion is no longer on the level I prefer.
 
Jack Hays said:
As you wish. Now that you've resorted to insults the discussion is no longer on the level I prefer.
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In other words, "I got nothin'." (Never did)
 
Jack Hays said:
As I posted much earlier, every model needs an exit strategy. Ferguson followed his. The point is not whether the model did or did not include less dire forecasts as possibilities; it did. The point is that the modelers were content for quite a while to let a worst-case-based public narrative run without offering any challenge.
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Thats always been the problem with modeling. The ones who made it werent sure of their own outcomes so they put out multiple possibilities just to cover their asses, and they will immediately just ignore the ones that didnt come true and say they were right all the time. It's pure bull****.
 
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